Coach Fletcher’s Premium Pick
Monday, July 6
4:05 pm
San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pick Pittsburgh 2* – 137 The Greek
Pirates Look to Stop Padre Streak at PNC Park
The Pirates are 47-34 on the year. The Padres are 39-45. The Pirates are in second place in the NL Central. The Padres are 4th in the NL West. Based on this alone you would think that the Pirates would have their way with the Pads. That may be true but there is one odd part of the equation. The Padres have won 19 of their last 23 games at PNC Park in Pittsburgh. Between 2009 and 2011, the Padres won 11 straight at PNC Park.
Here’s Why That Won’t Happen Today
- AJ Burnett, Pirates – 7-3, 2.05 season era ; James Shields, SD – 7-3, 4.14 season era
- Burnett – 1.29 era at home ; Shields – 5.50 era on road
- Burnett – 2.75 era last 3 ; Shields -7.02 era last 3
- Burnett – 4.38 vs SD last 3 starts ; Shields – 3.00 era vs Pirates in only start
- Burnett – 2.91 era last 7 ; Shields – 4.71 era last 7
- Burnett – 1.98 era last 15 ; Shields – 4.43 era last 15
- Burnett – 13 quality starts ; Shields – 12 quality starts
- Burnett – 1-1, 2.75 era last 3 – 19 2/3 innings, 6 earned runs, 8 hits
- Shields – 0-3, 7.02 era last 3 – 16 2/3 innings, 13 earned runs, 21 hits
Burnett is having another good year with the Bucs. Shields is having an off year of sorts with the Padres. Burnett has the better numbers in almost every category. His superiority excels when looking at recent work and home/away numbers.
The Bullpen Favors the Pirates
- Pirate pen – 2.55 all games ; 2.62 home games
- Padres pen – 3.77 all games ; 3.27 road games
The Pirates Have the Offensive Edge
- Pirates 4.0 rpg home, .259 batting avg ; Padres 4.1 rpg road, .243 batting avg
- Pirates 4.0 rpg vs RHP, .254 batting avg ; Padres 3.8 rpg vs RHP, .237 batting avg
- Pirates 8th in MLB hits per 9 ; Padres 23rd in MLB hits per 9
- Pirates 18th in MLB total bases ; Padres 24th in MLB total bases
- Pirates 10th in MLB batting average ; Padres 27th in MLB batting average
- Pirates 14th in MLB on base % ; Padres 29th in MLB on base %
Neither of these teams is an offensive powerhouse to be sure. But Pittsburg’s numbers tend to give them an edge, especially at home. And here is an amazing stat – THE PIRATES ARE 25-2 WHEN SCORING AT LEAST 3 RUNS SINCE MAY 22. I’m guessing they should be good for 3 here today. The Friars have scored 2 or fewer runs in 5 of their last 6. But they have averaged 5.9 runs per game in their last 19 at PNC Park.
Odds and Ends
- Shields hasn’t won a game since June 3
- Shields has received 8 runs of support in his last 5 starts
- Burnett has received 14 runs of support in his last 5 starts
- Pirates 26-15 at home ; Padres 21-23 on road
- Pirates 28-13 playing against teams with losing records
- Padres are 22-24 when playing against teams with winning records
- Pirates PLUS 0.6 run differential ; Padres MINUS 0.5 run differential
- Padres 9-8 vs Pirates last 3 seasons
- Padres 5-2 vs Pirates at PNC Park in last 3 seasons
- Padres are 2-2 vs Pirates this year
Coach’s Conclusion:
There really is no way to logically explain the Padre success at PNC Park. It isn’t due to having a team that is better built to play there versus a team that isn’t built to play there. The bottom line is that Pittsburgh is the better team by a substantial margin in overall play. The Pirate pitching staff is stronger as is and the fact that James Shields is slumping is primarily due to the fact that he has walked more players this season than any other time. When you fall behind batters they will generally make you pay for it. That is what has happened to Shields. The Pirates have won 5 of their last 6 while the Padres have lost 4 of their last 6. The Pirates just finished a home series and get to stay home. The Padres just finished 4 at St. Louis and are moving on to 3 at Pittsburgh. This is a perfect set up for the Pirates.
The Play Pirates 2* -137 The Greek