Coach Fletcher’s Monday Scouting Edge
Monday, July 6
4:05 pm San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Feels at Home in PNC Park
There’s no place like home unless you are the San Diego Padres. In their case, there is nothing like PNC Park in Pittsburgh. Going back to 2008, the Padres are an astounding 19-4 at PNC. Between 2009 and 2012 the Pads actually won 11 consecutive games there. Starter James Shields gives the Friars a chance to keep their success in line at PNC when he faces A.J. Burnett today. It isn’t going to be so easy for the Padres this time though since Shields has a 5.50 era in 9 road starts this year. The Pirates also feast on NL West teams going 8-2 against them this year, all of them on the road. In a 3 game set at San Diego’s Petco Park early in the year, the Bucs won 2 of 3. Shields went 6 against Pittsburgh in May giving up 2 runs and 6 hits in a no-decision win for the Padres. Burnett went 5 2/3 against SD also in May, allowing 4 earned runs and 8 hits in 5 2/3 frames.
4:10 pm Houston Astros at Cleveland Indians
Keuchel, Astros Find Themselves Road Dogs at Cleveland
Dallas Keuchel goes about his business with quiet assurance. Carlos Carrasco wears his heart on his sleeve. These 2 pitchers each with 10 wins tangle Monday at Progressive Field in Cleveland. Keuchel is 10-3 with an outstanding era of 2.03. Last year Dallas went 12-9 with a 2.93 era for an Astro team that lost 92 games. In his last 2 starts all Keuchel did was shut out the first place Yankees over 9 innings giving up 6 hits and striking out 12, then shut out the first place Royals on 7 hits striking out 7. In his only start against Houston this year he fanned 4 and allowed 0 runs and 3 hits. His career record against Cleveland is 2-0 with a 0.78 era and a 0.913 whip. Before you run to the window to bet the Astros note that Carrasco is 2-0 lifetime vs Houston with an era of 0.42 and a whip of 0.516. In his only start this year at Houston, Carrasco shut out the Astros for 6 1/3 innings allowing only 2 hits and fanning 10. In his last start Carrasco carried a perfect game into the 7th before walking a batter. The only hit against him came with 2 outs in the 9th.
5:05 pm St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
Two Teams looking for Offense Face Off at Wrigley
The Cards are an MLB best 53-28 and the Cubs are a quite acceptable 44-36. But both teams are struggling to score and unless the winds turn easy fly balls into bombs, runs may continue to be scarce. Since both teams rely on strong starting pitching, it isn’t really a surprising result. The Cardinal staff allows only 2.9 runs per game and the Cubs allow 3.7. The teams rank 1st and 5th respectively in MLB pitching rankings. The Cards staff allows 2.82 rpg on the road and the Cubbies give up 3.08 rpg at home. In hits allowed per game, the Cubs are 3rd in MLB and the Cards 8th. In opponent runs per game allowed the Cards are once again 1st in MLB and the Cubs 7th. With John Lackey going against Jon Lester, a close game seems a certainty. The Cubs will be looking for revenge after the Cards swept them in late June. Lackey is not as sharp on the road where his era is 5.40. But Lackey has had more success against the Cubs this year allowing 3 runs in 14 2/3 innings while Lester has given up 4 earned runs in 11 1/3 to the Cards. Lester’s personal catcher, David Ross, is on the disabled list which could affect Lester. But the Cubs get Anthony Rizzo back after a day off yesterday.
5:10 pm Atlanta Braves versus Milwaukee Brewers
Stop the Presses – Kyle Lohse is Favored Today
The overnight line has the Brewers and Kyle Lohse as -136 favorites against the Braves. The Brewers Kyle Lohse is not having a very good year. He is 5-9 with a 6.25 era. Lohse’s era at home is even worse at 8.16. He has shown some improvement lately with a mere 5.40 era in his last 3. However, in his last 7 games Kyle has a 6.92 era and a 5.71 era in his last 15. Lohse hasn’t faced the Braves yet this year, but he pitched well against them in 2013 – 2014 hurling 24 innings and giving up just 4 runs. He is 6-2 lifetime versus Atlanta with a 3.86 era. Lohse might have an incentive to give it his all. His name has come up in trade talks largely due to the fact that he’s a veteran hurler with an expiring contract. On the other hand, the Brewers are in last place but have won 8 straight.
7:10 pm Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners
Look for Some Offense in This One
With an over – under line sitting at 7, you’d think that a pitcher’s duel is in the offing. That wouldn’t be surprising since Seattle is notoriously a weak hitting team and the Tigers have to go without their MVP Miguel Cabrera. But it appears that there will be ample opportunity to plate some runs in this game with the tigers Alfredo Simon going against the Mariner’s Hisashi Iwakuma. In his last 3 starts Simon’s era is a gigantic 11.04. He’s got a 5.03 era on the road for the season. He’s given up 18 runs in his last 14 2/3 innings. Opponents have tagged him for 29 hits in that time. The Tigers have also scored 21 runs in their last 3 games. The M’s have plated 11. Iwakuma has been a model of consistency this year. He has an era of 6.61 for all his starts, a 6.35 era in his home starts, and a 6.61 era in his last 3 starts where he has given up 12 runs in 16 1/3 innings. In his only start versus Detroit last year, Iwakuma was tagged for 5 runs and 8 hits in 6 innings. Simon hasn’t faced the M’s. Iwakuma is coming off the disabled list for a Grade 1 sprain of his right lat. He went 1-0 with a 1.35 era in 3 rehab starts.