Coach Fletcher’s Free Pick
Friday, July 3
5:10 pm Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox
The Pick Orioles -150 The Greek (updated)
Baltimore Looks to Take Advantage of White Sox Pitcher Danks
The White Sox are one of the worst offensive teams in baseball. Their run production does not cut the mustard. Add a struggling pitcher to the equation and you have 34-42 team. The struggling pitcher is John Danks who seems to be in maybe his 20th year in the league. That’s certainly not the case since Danks is just 30 years old. He’s actually been in the league for only 9 years. He’s 75-93 in that time with an ERA of 4.34. This year the lefty has regressed and does not match up well with the O’s Ubaldo Jimenez.
White Sox, Danks Orioles, Jimenez
** 3-8, 5.15 ERA, 1.48 whip ** 7-3, 3.09 ERA, 1/23 whip
** 5.00 ERA at home ** 4.35 ERA on road
** 6.85 ERA last 4 starts ** 2.75 ERA last 3 starts
** Last start, 5 1/3 innings, 9 runs, 9 hits, 3 HR ** Last start, 8 inn, 0 runs, 4 hits, 7 k
** Last start vs O’s in 2013 ** Start vs Sox 4/29, 7 inn, 0 earned, 3 hits
Baltimore’s Offense Should Handle Danks, Definitely Superior to Sox
** O’s + 0.6 run differential ; White Sox is -1.0
** O’s 4th in MLB runs per game ; White Sox 27th
** O’s 9th in MLB batting average .259 ; White Sox 25th ,241
** O’s 6th in MLB slugging %.426 ; White Sox 30th, .357
** O’s 6th in MLB on base plus slugging % ; White Sox 30th
The Oriole offense tops the weak hitting Pale Hose in virtually every category. When you have the best pitcher and the best offense, it normally translates to a win.
This Game is Mispriced
It is true that the White Sox have won 2 straight against a good St, Louis team and that the Orioles lost 2 of 3 to the Rangers. The Sox also started Chris Sale and Jose Quintana, neither of whom will see the mound today. The only similarity Danks has to Sale and Quintana is that they all throw from the left side. The line opened at about -117 and has climbed into the -130’s. I expect it will continue to go up and may land in the -140 range by game time. I make the line for this game about -175 in Baltimore’s favor.
Coach’s Conclusion:
Not only do the O’s have the best pitcher today, they also have the best offense. They are facing a pitcher who is fading and starting a pitcher that is getting stronger. The public is making way too much out of the Chisox wins over the Cardinals which is keeping the line down. In their last 12 games they have scored more than 4 runs only twice and 4 runs is not going to be enough to win this one.
The Pick Baltimore Orioles -150 (updated)