2015 MLB Record
39 – 37 for +1.43 Units
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#1: New York Yankees -110 (1st 5 Innings Only)
Andrew Miller, Dellin Betances, and Justin Wilson have all pitched two straight days and 3 of the last 4. These are NY’s top relievers so their availability is a ‘question mark’ today. Plus with a risk that Sabathia could ‘tire out’ in the later innings, I believe the safer play here is for the 1st 5 innings only. In any case, we have a pitcher for the A’s who is coming off a phenomenal start (6 inn, 3 hits, 0 ER’s, 6 to 2 K:BB) versus a pitcher for NY who got shelled in his previous one (2.1 inn, 7 hits, 6 ER’s; 4 to 1 K:BB). So let’s examine a few things in relation to each.
Even with his excellent start last time out, Graveman is my 147th ranked pitcher out of 154 with an e-ERA (expected ERA) of 5.3 on the season. His BB-rate of 10% is almost at his K-rate level of 12% and his 5.7/5.3/5.1 FxS (FIP/xFIP/SIERA) are some of the worst numbers in the majors. He’s coming off a great start after spending some time in the minors due to a demotion, but how likely is that to repeat tonight? Graveman faced the Rays in his last start, a team that ranks 18th offensively against right-handers. The Rays also rank 24th against the ‘cutter’, which is the pitch he uses to complement his mediocre fastball. He threw his cutter 27% of the time against the Rays and it was by far his most dominant pitch as Tampa Bay hitters just couldn’t hit it. Well, tonight’s matchup should be much more difficult. Not only do the Yankees rank 7th against right-handed pitchers, they are also the #1 offensive team in the league against the ‘cutter’. But it doesn’t end there. In addition to these two factors, Yankees will most likely feature 8 left-handed hitters in their lineup today. Graveman has a 1.2 K/BB rate and 7.0/6.5 FIP/xFIP against lefties on the year, ranking him as a bottom-5 starter against left-handers on the season. This is a lot of factors going against him in this one.
As far as Sabathia is concerned, I’m not worried about his poor start against the Rangers. He got through the first 2 innings unscathed, striking out 4 batters. He unraveled in the 3rd though walking the first batter, allowing an infield hit, and then 3 singles in a row. Sabathia wasn’t hit hard (20% Hard % only) and he recorded a 1.6 xFIP in the outing. Of course ‘luck’ wasn’t on his side and he got a quick hook after only 59 pitches. Keep in mind that the Rangers rank 3rd offensively in the month of May and they’re the #5 ranked offense against lefties on the year. This was a really tough matchup for Sabathia. Tonight, things should be much different. Oakland comes into this game ranking 29th offensively against lefties. They’ve registered single-digits in hits in 10 of their last 12 games and their top-2 hitters based on Isolated Power are Vogt and Reddick, two left-handers. Sabathia has been filthy against lefties, registering an 11.0 K/BB rate and 2.7 xFIP (#13 in the league) against them. Oakland will struggle to up ‘quick’ runs in this one and for them to score, they’ll have to generate a number of consecutive hits, kind of like what the Rangers did against CC in his last outing. Of course I believe the A’s are way less likely to replicate that. My model has this game at -130 NY and I believe the Yankees are under-valued in this one due to Sabathia’s performance in his last start. I expect him to bounce-back while I believe Graveman’s chances of throwing another gem are minimal.
Good Luck