2015 MLB Record
36 – 37 for -2.12 Units
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#1: Baltimore Orioles -113
McHugh has been very good this year ranking as my 41st pitcher on the season with an e-ERA of 3.6 so far YTD. Of course he hasn’t been as ‘sharp’ on the road as at home. He has a 16% K-rate on the road compared to 25% elite-like rate at home, and his 3.8 xFIP is half-a-run higher as well (3.3 at home). His saving grace has been an under-inflated HR-rate on the road at only 0.5 HR/9. He’ll be facing an Orioles lineup that ranks 8th in ISO and ranks 5th in the majors in HR’s hit at home (29). In addition, McHugh hasn’t been very sharp in May so far. His ERA is 4.9 in the month and 5.0 FIP and 4.3 xFIP confirm that he hasn’t been as sharp. Regardless of how McHugh performs, Orioles will have a ‘better’ starter on the mound in this matchup. Ubaldo “freaking” Jimenez is my 18th ranked starter so far this year with an e-ERA of 3.2. He has cut down his BB-rate drastically from 5.5 per 9 last year to 2.6 this year and he’s allowing much weaker contact. Last season he had a 41% GB-rate and 17% Soft% rate (% of balls in play that were hit softly), with a SIERA of 4.6. This year he has a 54% GB-rate, 24% Soft% rate, and a career best 3.3 SIERA, the lowest mark of his 10-year career. He dominated this Houston lineup last year (obviously a number of hitters are different now but a good number are still holdovers from 2014) allowing 3 hits while striking out 8 in 6 innings of work. I think his fastball/slider combo is going to be a challenge for the Astros in this one and I like Baltimore chances today. My model has the O’s at -125 in this matchup and I’ll grab the 10+ cents of value with the home team.
#2: Washington Nationals -125
The Cubs are featuring a weakened lineup today as neither Montero nor Soler are in the lineup. Instead, Lake and Ross will be featured, two guys who can’t hit. Neither Rizzo nor Bryant has faced Scherzer before, so this might be a pretty rough display for this Cubs offense. On the other side, I look for Lester to take a step back in this one. He has a 1.9 ERA in May but his 4.4 FIP is much higher than that. Lester has allowed 5 HR’s in the month but a .242 BABIP and 91% strand-rate have helped keep the ERA number low. He’ll be facing a Washington offense that ranks 2nd overall in the month of May and is 4th in ISO in the same time-frame. Lester has a 4.0 ERA at home compared to 2.7 on the road, and has allowed 4 HR”s and opponents to bat 0.289 in Wrigley. Nationals feature a powerful lineup and I think this is a spot where Lester could really struggle. I’ll back a better starter and a better offense in this one.
#3: San Diego Padres +155
Very generous odds here on a pitcher in Cashner who has allowed 3 or fewer runs in 5 of his last 7 starts. Coming into today’s game Cashner has a 23% K-rate with a 3.4 K/BB. By comparison Richards has a 20% K-rate and a 2.0 K/BB. Both pitchers have ERA’s around 3, but Cashner’s 3.4 SIERA is superior to Richards’ 4.2 mark. In addition, Cashner has been flat out filthy against righties with a 2.5 xFIP and 7.8 K/BB mark on the year. He ranks 8th against right-handers. Richards by comparison has a 4.9 xFIP and 1.6 K/BB mark against right-handers, ranking 138th. This is an important difference as both the Padres and the Angels feature righty-heavy lineups. My model has this one at +120 San Diego, so I believe we have about 30+ cents of value in this one. I’ll grab the Padres tonight.
Good Luck