2015 MLB Record
33 – 36 for -4.15 Units
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#1: San Francisco Giants -128
I have this one at -130 San Fran so no pure ‘odds value’ per say, but I like San Fran’s chances of winning this game. Milwaukee is 26th offensively against lefties and BumG should be able to dominate this light-hitting Brewers lineup. Garza has been bad this year with a 10% BB-rate, 1.6 K/BB ratio, and 4.7 e-ERA (expected ERA), which ranks 124th out of 154 starters. San Fran ranks 4th against right-handed hitters offensively and I expect them to get it done tonight.
#2: Houston Astros +103
Feldman’s e-ERA of 3.8 is a full 1.4 runs lower than Tillman’s e-ERA of 5.2. Feldman also sports a 50% GB-rate to Tillman’s 39% mark, and his FB-rate of 24% dwarf’s Tillman’s 40% number. Both offenses have a lot of power in the lineup, but Houston is much more likely to capitalize on it in this matchup. I have this one at -112 Stros, providing about 15-cents of value in this one.
#3: Arizona Diamondbacks +150
In Garcia’s first start in the past 11 months he issued 5 BB’s and allowed 5 hits (1 HR) in 7 innings of work. Frankly he was lucky to only allow 2 ER’s. Now all of a sudden he’s a large favorite in his 2nd start of the season. Bradley hasn’t been ‘sharp’ lately but he has 2 games under his belt since getting pelted by a ‘comebacker’, he sports a 58% GB-rate and only a 13% LD-rate on the year, and he’s never faced the Cardinals before. I think DBacks have a good shot in this one and I’ll grab the generous odds.
#4: Detroit Tigers -112
Chavez has pitched well for the A’s so far this year but he hasn’t faced many tough-lineups just yet. The toughest lineup he faced were the 13th ranked Rays, in addition to CHW, SEA, MIN, LAA (twice), all lineups that are 13th or worse. Now he’ll go up against the 4th ranked Tigers offense. Last year Chavez allowed 16 hits and issued 6 BB’s (22 baserunners) in only 11 innings pitched and I wouldn’t be surprised to see more of the same today. David Price has registered 21 K’s in the last 2 starts and he’s facing 29th ranked Oakland offense against lefties in this one. I love Detroit’s chances in this one and believe they’re undervalued in this spot. My model has them at -122 tonight, so about 10+ cents of value in this one.
Good Luck