I am generally not a big chalk layer, but I think everything this Tuesday calls for WINS from the Mets and the Dodgers.
Play on Game #906 Ny Mets w/ DeGrom (7:10 PM EST)
I like DeGrom and the Mets to continue with their winning ways at home tonight vs. one of the worst pitchers in the Majors and behind one of their young studs in DeGrom. The Mets are now 20-4 as a favorite this season, 18-6 at home, and 12-3 at home vs. the division. The Mets are 3-0 in Degrom's 3 team starts vs. the Phillies, including a 2-0 win vs. them earlier this season. In 19.2 IP vs. the Phillies, DeGrom sports a 19K/ 5 BB mark. I will also note that DeGrom pitches his best at home as he has a 5-1 record at home with a 1.13 ERA and a 41K/ 5 BB mark for the year.
The Phillies will have Jerome Williams on the rubber who is 1-4 in his 5 team starts vs. the Mets with a 10K/ 13 BB mark. The Mets beat home 6-1 earlier this season and the Phillies are now 0-4 in his 4 road starts this season. While Williams has a 3.45 ERA at home, he sports a 8.38 road ERA as opponents are hitting .371 off him. He has a 7.03 ERA in 5 starts for the month of May. There is just nothing positive about this guy.
I think we have a big mismatch as far as pitchers go here on Tuesday night. I also like the dominance the Mets have had this year when listed as a favorite as they are covering 83% of the time in the blind. The Mets are now 6-1 vs. the Phillies this season. DeGrom is 3-1 for his career when listed as a favorite of -150 or more with ALL 3 wins coming by 2 or more runs. Williams is 0-8 in his last 8 starts as an underdog of +150 - +190. This is a no brainer. Lay the $$ with confidence tonight.
Play on Game #914 LA Dodgers w/ Kershaw (10:10 PM EST)
I'm laying the -240 with Kershaw tonight. I know this is a hefty price to lay, but it is for good reason. So I have to ask myself...Am I almost 2.5X confident on this game than usual to lay -240? The answer is YES.
Kershaw is 13-0 SU his L13 home games as a favorite of -200 or more. Kershaw is 1-0 in 5 career starts vs. the Braves and the Dodgers are 4-1 in those 5 starts. He has a 39K/ 8 BB mark in those 5 starts. His last start vs. the Braves was last season and he was matched up against Julio Teheran who is on the rubber for the Braves tonight and the Dodgers won that game 2-1.
Teheran is 0-3 in his 3 team starts vs. the Dodgers. Gonzalez is 3-for-7 career vs. Teheran and Jimmy Rollins has a .318 career average vs. him as well. Teheran has been getting dinged up this season. He has given up 8 or more hits in 4 of his 9 starts. He has given up more fly balls than groundballs in 8 of his 9 starts. On the road Teheran is sporting a 5.88 ERA and opponents are hitting .349 vs. him. Lefties are hitting .364 which pays notice to the above stat with Rollins and Gonzalez that have had success vs. him.
I will also note that the Braves are last in the NL in runs scored vs. left handed pitchers at only 23 runs in 36 games and a .329 SLG% which is also last in the NL. The Braves are now 1-8 in their last 9 games vs. the NL West, and 3-7 in Teheran's last 10 starts vs. the NL West. The Dodgers are 24-5 in Kershaw's last 29 games vs. the NL East and they are 8-1 their last 9 games vs. the Braves.