Happy Memorial Day everyone! Many thanks to our servicemen who fought for the cause of freedom around the globe, and especially those who gave their lives.
I have a big card going Monday, as I see a lot to like on this card. A couple of things to note: 1. I like to fade home teams that are playing their first game back home after long road trips. Oftentimes, the home team is distracted by family, and just life in general. 2. Now that we are a quarter of the way through the season, the 2015 numbers start to become meaningful in my capping. So, with that in mind here we go:
San Francisco ML +109 Simply put, The Freak is back! Tim Lincecum is starting to resemble the pitcher that we once knew as "The Freak". In his last 4 starts, he is 3-0, allowing just 3 ER in 25.2 innings (1.05 ERA). The league is hitting just .220 against him this year. On the Milwaukee side, Kyle Lohse is finally getting his act together after getting roughed up in his first 3 starts. In his last 14 innings he has given up just 2 runs (1.28 ERA) on just 9 hits and 3 BB's (0.86 WHIP). The difference to me in this game is the offenses. San Francisco has the highest team batting average in the NL, Milwaukee has the lowest. In their last 10 games, the Giants offense has really ramped it up, scoring 66 runs in those 10 games while the Brewers have scored 37 in their last 10. Finally, Milwaukee is coming home off a 10-game road trip, and I stated above what I think of teams coming home off long road trips. And they come home to a place where they are 8-15 this year. I look for a low scoring game, as both pitchers are pitching well, but a more high powered SF offense is the difference here.
Other plays I have based on the home team coming in off a long road trip: Rockies ML, Diamondbacks ML, Tigers ML. A couple of notes on these plays: 1. Cincinnati is hitting just .228 at home this year; 2. Oakland is just 5-14 at home this year.
Kansas City ML +115 I really like the pitching match-up for KC. Jeremy Guthrie has allowed just 4 runs in his last 3 starts, covering 18.1 innings (1.96 ERA) while allowing just 19 hits and 3 walks in that span (1.20 WHIP). New York starter Nathan Eovaldi has been going the opposite direction. In his last 3 starts, covering 17.1 innings, he has given up 12 ER (6.23 ERA) and allowed 19 hits and 7 walks over that span (1.50 WHIP). KC's offense has been on fire all season, and Eovaldi looks like a gas can to keep that fire going. Plus, the Yankee bullpen is probably worn thin after the pitching staff surrendered 30 runs to the Rangers this weekend. I like the Royals to win this game rather easily and if you're inclined to play totals, I would look at the Over in this game.
Other plays: Toronto -1.5, Cleveland -1.5
Best of luck everyone!