2015 MLB Record
32 – 34 for -3.25 Units
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#1: Los Angeles Angels +111
Two things stand out here. First Santiago has a 22% K-rate and a 2.3 ERA coming into this one while Miley is at 16% K-rate and a 5.1 ERA. Advanced stats indicate a much closer performance YTD for both (4.3 vs 4.7 SIERA) but the particular matchup today favors the Angels. That’s because their offense ranks 7th against lefties while Boston’s is only 26th. No Sandoval and no Victorino in the lineup for Boston, and LA has been the ‘better’ team so far this year. I’ll back the Angels in this spot.
#2: Atlanta Braves +110
Not sure why Milwaukee is a road-favorite here, as the Brewers are one of the worst teams in the league while Atlanta is about a league-average one. Jimmy Nelson is coming off a very strong start @ Detroit, but he allowed 8 ER’s and 5 HR’s in the previous two outings. In addition even with that impressive outing @ Detroit, his road xFIP of 4.9 and road K/BB rate of 1.4 are substantially worse than his numbers at home – 3.1 xFIP and 4.0 K/BB. Foltynewicz has a 5.3 ERA but his 23K’s through 22 innings is pretty impressive. He’s also facing a Brewers lineup missing Braun, Lucroy, and Ramirez today while featuring no-name guys like Sardinas, Herrera, Hector Gomez, etc. I’ll grab the + odds with the home dog in this one.
Good Luck