2015 MLB Record
24 – 26 for -4.81 Units
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#1: Chicago Cubs +115
Lester’s 4.7 ERA doesn’t do justice to how well he’s been pitching actually as his 2.4 FIP is close to Lynn’s 2.0 mark, and his 2.9 xFIP is even closer (2.8 for Lynn). Inflated BABIP of .360 and low strand rate of 64% have attributed to Lester allowing more runs than was to be expected but going forward you can expect his ERA to continue to dip. Against a STL lineup that ranks 23rd offensively against lefties and 30th in ISO against them, Lester has a strong shot for a good outing. He pitched against STL in his first start with the Cubs but I expect him to be much stronger tonight. I like Lester’s chances of going 7 strong tonight and letting Strop/Rondon take care of innings 8 and 9. On the other hand, I think Cardinals will have a tougher time in the later innings. Their BP is pretty taxed right now and Lynn isn’t likely to last past the 6th inning as he’s only done so once in his 5 starts this year. That one start was his last outing where he pitched an absolutely gem allowing 4 hits and striking out 10 in 7 innings of work. A bit of decline in efficiency is to be expected tonight. Cardinals are missing Jay, Adams, and Wong out of their lineup tonight and I think Cubs have a strong shot to win this game behind a better lineup and a better BP.
Good Luck