Game - St Louis at Milw, starts 11:10 PDT
Starting pitchers - Lynn for St L and Fiers for Milw
Picks
Main pick - Mil TT U 3.5 runs (-130 or 135 odds) to win 3 units (this makes Fiers' recent home struggles irrelevant)
STL/Lynn -145/ML to win 2 units
STL/ F5 RL -1/2 run @-105 odds for 2 units
Support for picks on STL and against Mil
A ton of favorable trends and #s supporting both SL and starter Lance Lynn in this match–up. Lynn is enjoying another terrific April (has a 1.56 ERA after three starts this season ) and is 13-2 with a 2.58 ERA in his career in March and April, with opponents batting a weak .213 against Lynn this season and .210 for his career before the month of May. Lynn has already faced Milwaukee once this year and yielded just one run over five innings April 15 in a 4-2 triumph in SL. In sharp contrast, Milw starter Fiers has been shelled in both of his home starts TY, has yet to complete six innings in any of his first three outings, and has lost six consecutive starts dating to 2014. By playing Mil team total Under 3.5 rather than the game total Under 7.5, we make Fiers’ poor pitching TY (especially at home) irrelevant for our Under pick.
Also note following positive trends for SL, 12-4 overall and 7-3 away, all applicable to this game, and the “losing tradition” that Brewers (a woeful 3-15 overall and 3-10 at home) seem to be building since middle of last season:
Positive trends for STL
STL 7-1 in their last 8 games following a win.
STL 12-2 in their last 14 Sun. games.
STL 36-16 in their last 52 games as a favorite.
STL 25-9 in the last 34 meetings in Milwaukee.
Negative trends for Milw
MIL 14-40 in their last 54 overall, all on grass.
MIL 18-38 in their last 56 games as an underdog.
BOL if you decide to play these.
Great Owl