Considering the disadvantages they’re saddled with on an annual basis, the Tampa Bay Rays have been the most consistent overachiever in baseball the last several years. When it comes to circumstances beyond their control, no team has it worse than this one. The Rays play in a bad stadium. They draw flies to their St. Petersburg location unless the Yankees or Red Sox are in town, and then it’s as if the Rays are the road team. They don’t have near the resources of most of the competition. Yet year after year, the Rays had been contenders until a perfect storm of bad luck doomed them in 2014.
The Rays go into 2015 as a puzzling entry. If one goes strictly by the metrics, Tampa Bay ought to be pretty good, perhaps to the point where playing past Game 162 is a possibility. But the oddsmakers didn’t think so when they posted the O/U for this team and I don’t think so either.
On paper, this is a winning team. The starting pitching has a chance to be quite good, with Alex Cobb, Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi and Drew Smyly. The fifth spot is a mess until Matt Moore returns and he’ll be a question mark for at least this season. The bullpen is acceptable at a bare minimum and has a chance to be dominant.
I like the TB outfield quite a bit. Desmond Jennings is a legit breakout candidate this season. Kevin Kiermaier came from out of nowhere to have a big rookie season, and I don’t think it was a fluke. Steven Souza could be a Rookie of the Year candidate. There’s outstanding depth as well in the pasture. I don’t have a problem with the Rays infield either. James Loney might not be the prototype at 1B, but he gets the job done. Evan Longoria figures to rebound from an off 2014 season. 2B Nick Franklin has yet to put it together, and will start the season on the DL, but scouts still like his upside. Asdrubal Cabrera probably hit his ceiling with the Indians, but there are far worse shortstops getting starting time around the majors. Again, pretty good depth here as well.
Yet there are some nagging concerns for me. Rene Rivera doesn’t impress me as a guy who should be a 80% PT catcher. Ben Zobrist has moved on and while his stats weren’t generally spectacular, his versatility was and I don’t think there’s any question Zobrist was a major glue guy for Tampa Bay. But perhaps most importantly, the front office/field general combo of Andrew Friedman and Joe Maddon is gone. You won’t find any real measurable in terms of statistical data on the impact this duo had for the last several years with this franchise. But Friedman’s ability to isolate inexpensive talent and Maddon’s phenomenal managerial skills will be sorely missed.
Perhaps you can see why I’m having so much trouble coming up with any kind of confident forecast for this team. I like the roster for the most part, but I am extremely worried about the intangibles, and I suspect I’m going to have to give more weight to the latter than the former. I won’t come close to making a play on this Win Total option. The value appears to be on the Over, but the reality might not prove that opinion out. Gun to head, the Rays suffer a second straight losing season and sink back to the depths of the AL East.