The second of my Team-by-Team Previews with a Win Total Bet, I will be posting at least 4 Win Total bets as we progress through Spring Training
Well, we have seen this situation in MLB several times in previous years, a team investing heavily during the winter upgrading their roster and expecting this will equate to a winning team come September. Of course, on paper they look a lot stronger than last year. Looking at their roster from a strictly sabermetric point of view it seems like they might not have upgraded as much as they would have hoped for considering the money they’ve spent.
The Padres’ biggest strength in 2015 will be their pitching, especially at the pitcher friendly Petco Park. New acquired James Shields looks set to be their opening day starter and the veteran righty has yielded over 200 IP over his last 8 seasons in the Majors and incredibly hasn’t missed a start in seven years. Behind Shields in the rotation will be Andrew Cashner, Tyson Ross, Ian Kennedy and Odrisamer Despaigne. This looks a very solid pitching core on paper but the big question that lingers is can these guys stay healthy throughout the season. Although Shields has been very durable over the last 8 years, guys can’t keep pitching 220 Innings year in year out and expect to produce the same quality of pitches as they get older.
As bullpens continue to play a bigger role in Major League baseball, I really like the bullpen the Padres’ have heading into this campaign. Joaquin Benoit was outstanding in 2014 as he pitched to a stingy 1.49 ERA and 2.32 FIP in 54 1/3 innings. He had 16 holds as the team's setup man and saved 11 of 12 games after Huston Street was traded. Joining Benoit are returning teammates Kevin Quackenbush, Nick Vincent, Dale Thayer, and Alex Torres. Shawn Kelley and Brandon Maurer are offseason additions that should also contribute.
In my view, the Padres will struggle offensively this year, their revamped outfield consisting of Justin Upton, Matt Kemp and Wil Myers should be an upgrade from last season but defensively I’m not so sure. Upton, Myers and Kemp cumulated 406 strikeouts between them in 2014 last season and that’s with Myers only playing 87 games. As the Atlanta Braves found out last season, when you have 3/4 hitters striking out 140+ times during the season, it accumulates into very little run production. Ok, you will get 23/26 HR from these bats but the overall offensive production will be affected in a negative way. Their infield will also lack run production, Alonso, Gyoroko and Solarte all struggle to hit above .260 and consequently relying on the middle order to hit 2/3 HR per game.
Projected Line-Up:
1) Yangervis Solarte
2) Wil Myers
3) Matt Kemp
4) Justin Upton
5) Yonder Alonso
6) Jedd Gyorko
7) Derek Norris
8) Alexi Amarista
9) SP
In Summary, the Padres have made a complete overhaul to their roster this winter and it has turned them into an NL West Title contender (On Paper). We saw the exactly the same ‘Gamble’ taken by the Toronto Blue Jays a couple of years ago by investing large sums of money into various star players which mounted into a 74-88 (.457) season. I do think that this Padres team can challenge to be a .500 ball club in 2015 but the win total posted at 84 ½ by most sportsbooks is slightly inflated. I see more value in taking the Under with San Diego as I can’t see them being able to win enough games with the line-up they have.
San Diego Padres UNDER 84 ½
GL
Jonathan Young