Game - WS game 3, KC at SFG, starts approx 5:05 Pacific
Weather in SF- clear, 65-70 degrees, 10-15 MPH winds out to LF
PITCHING MATCH-UP: Royals RH Jeremy Guthrie (2014: 13-11, 4.07 ERA, TY playoffs 0-0, 1.80 ERA) vs. Giants RH Tim Hudson (2014: 9-13, 3.55 ERA, TY playoffs 0-0, 3.29)
Picks (4 picks for 7.5 units)
Over for 5.5 units, consisting of below 3 picks
Game Over 7 for 2.5 units
KC team total Over 3.5 runs (-105) for 2 units
F5 innings Over 3.5 runs for 2 units
Other pick – KC F5 inning RL +1/2 run at -130 odds for one unit
Support for picks
Full game Over and KC team total Over
It’s hard to find an edge in this game 3, with KC Royals 9-1 in their last 10 games as an underdog, 9-1 in their last 10 playoff games (all TY, and including 4-0 in road playoff games), and 8-1 in their last 9 inter-league road games, but SF Giants 7-1 in their last 8 World Series games and 20-6 in their last 26 home games, including 4-1 at home in TY’s playoffs.
However, we do see some edges for the Over, starting with the fact that Giants are 16-5 to the Over in their last 21 playoff home games. Moreover, the total should not be the same (7 runs) for Guthrie/Hudson as it was for Peavy/Ventura. SF starter Hudson has struggled lately - he has given up at least 3 earned runs in 6 of 7 starts, was a brutal 0-5 in September with an 8.72 ERA, and did not look great in his last start (game 3 against the Cards, in SF), where he coughed up 4 ER on 7 hits in 6.1 IP. And KC starter Guthrie on the year had a 1.30 WHIP and ERA over 4.00 which is very average.
As far as totals momemtum is concerned, it greatly favors the Over, as not only have both World Series games so far have gone Over the number, but the Royals have gone Over in 6 of their 10 playoff games while averaging 5 runs per game on offense, including 5.25 rpg in their four playoff roadies, while Giants have averaged 4 runs a game on offense in their last 10 games and have been hitting and scoring well at home in TY’s playoffs (4-1 W-L and > 4 rpg scoring, including 5.7 in their 3 NLCS home games against SL). AQnd Giants have gone Over in 6 straight, including all 3 home games vs SL in the NLCS, with those 3 home games averaging 9.33 total rpg (and featuring total runs of 9, 9 and 10) and SFG averaging 5.7 rpg scoring in the 3 games (scoring 5, 6 and 6 runs).
On the other hand, note that “Under-friendly” umpire Jim Reynolds will be calling balls and strikes for tonite’s Game 3, which could be problematic for Over bettors, as during the regular season, games that had Reynolds behind the plate went 9-20 to the Under (averaging 7.3 rpg), including 2-8 Under in his last ten behind the plate and 1-6 Under when the total is 7<. And with Reynolds having one of the bigger strike zones among umpires, a whopping 64.35 percent of all pitches thrown were strikes in games that had Reynolds behind the plate.
Another potential problem for the Over is that both starters tonite have generally pitched better at nite TY than during the day. More specifically, SF’s Tim Hudson has a 3.07 ERA and a .283 OBP, versus a 4.16 ERA and .325 OBP during the day. That has affected total plays in his day and nite starts as well, with Hudson 6-12 to the Under at night, and those nite starts averaging just 6.9 total rpg, compared to 9-3-2 Over before the sun sets, with those 14 day starts averaging 8.85 total rpg. . Similarly, KC’s Guthrie is 6-9-1 Under in his 16 nite starts TY, which averaged 7.9 total rpg, compared to 6-3 Over in his 9 day starts TY, with a high 4.95 ERA, with those 9 day starts averaging a whopping 10.35 total rpg. But while the above day/nite comparison for both starters is very interesting, what does it all mean, in a game that starts at 5:00 local time in SF, with nearly two hours of daylight left before the sun sets?
As far as other relevant data for each starter is concerned , note first that KC’s Guthrie is making his second start of the posts-eason, having received a no-decision against Baltimore on Oct. 14 when he gave up one run and three hits over five innings. He spent part of 2012 in the National League with the Colorado Rockies and has made two career starts at AT&T Park, going 0-1 with a 3.18 ERA in 11 1/3 innings, including a good one his last start there. SF’s Hudson will be making his second playoff start TY, pitching for the first time since taking a no-decision against St. Louis on Oct. 14 when he allowed four runs and seven hits in 6 1/3 innings, after having a good start in a 2-1 SF win at Wash (but ND for him) in the NLDS. Again, Hudson lost his final four regular-season starts and was awful in September. Giants’ manager Bruce Bochy said at a recentpress conference that Hudson’s issues in Sept. were tied to a nagging hip injury.
Both teams also have some hot batters, such as KC’s designated hitter Billy Butler, who went 3-for-6 with two RBIs over the first two games to break out of his post-season doldrums that saw him looking for his first homer. But while Butler is available as a PH, and he will liely be used in that role, Butler will not be in KC’s starting line-up, as the pitchers bat in WS games played in NL parks like today’s, so there is no DH. Giants red-hot third baseman Pablo “Panda” Sandoval (4-for-9 in the World Series) is batting .346 in the post-season.
And no discussion of today’s game 3, especially the Over, would be complete w/o mentioning Giants’ recently “flammable” RHP “reliever” Hunter “Meat” Strickland, who has allowed five homers this October, matching Chris Narveson (2011) for the most ever given up in a single post-season by a reliever.
So based on the above, despite the stars, planets and other heavely bodies not lining up perfectly for an Over play, we’ll still play Over 7. And unofficially, we also suggest splitting your Over play into 3 picks, by adding KC Over 3.5 runs and F5 Over 3.5, playing all 3 picks for unit strength shown above.