#12: Kansas City Royals -116
Watching the Royals meticulously go about their business yesterday was a real pleasure. Even when they were down 1 run, you had this feeling watching the game that KC won’t lose. They were confident, composed, played terrific defense, made bold moves when a run was needed (subbing out Aoki for Dyson in the 6th), and most importantly they executed. Dyson came across to score a run (single moved him to 3rd and then a sac-fly by Butler) and then it was pretty much automatic after that, with KC’s bullpen shutting the doors down in 7th, 8th, and 9th (Frasor also had a 1-2-3 inning in the 6th as well). Dyson was right when he politely answered a question on whether he expects this series to go back to Baltimore: “No sir, I don’t. And I don’t think they think that, either”. In some sports like football and basketball, ‘bulletin board’ material could be used to entice players to give a little extra effort and work better as a team towards a common goal of winning a ball game. In baseball, that doesn’t really apply. Baseball is an individual sport for the most part, and ‘bulletin board’ material could actually throw opposing players off their game mentally. In any case, I don’t see this series going back to Baltimore nor do I see it going to game 5 even. Vargas’ strongest pitch is his ‘changeup’, a pitch that Baltimore really struggles against (similar to why I felt Guthrie would throw a good game yesterday). On the other side you have Miguel Gonzalez, my 154th ranked pitcher out of 171. Gonzalez has a 3.2 ERA on the year but his advanced stats tell a different story. His 4.8 FIP is 159th in the league, and his -1.6 E-F is the worst out of all the starters. A low .274 BABIP and a ridiculously high 86% strand-rate (average is around 70%) have helped his ERA be lower than it should be. Last time Gonzalez pitched in KC was in 2013, and he allowed 8 hits and 6 ER’s in 4.2 innings while striking out zero batters. Yesterday I felt Chen will have a strong game because he was excellent against left-handed hitters this season (3.5 FIP on the year), and most of KC’s key hitters are lefty. Well, Gonzalez has a 5.0 FIP against lefties on the season, ranking 156th in the league. These two pitchers also have a strong Home/Away split, as Vargas has a 3.7/3.8 FIP/xFIP at home while Gonzalez has a 4.7/4.4 mark on the road. In addition, just like I’ve mentioned yesterday, Kauffman Field is NOT HR-friendly. Orioles need to string hits together as their HR-power isn’t as much of a factor here as it is at home. Bottom line is that Royals are a more confident team and honestly, they’re a ‘better’ team right now. Plus they have a starting pitcher advantage on the mound today. I believe they have a great shot to close this one out.
#13: San Francisco Giants -114
Shelby Miller had a terrific September, where he registered a 1.5 ERA with a 26 K to 5 BB ratio as the Cards went 4-1 in those starts. What changed was that he scrapped his ineffective ‘cutter’, and just increased the usage of his fastball and his curve, which was a much more effective pitch down the stretch for him. Throwing the fastball 75% of the time is dangerous though as good hitters can sit on the pitch. In the 2nd half of the year, Giants ranked 6th offensively against that pitch, and they were 7th in the majors against the ‘curveball’. Miller’s ERA this year came in at 3.8 but part of that is due to a low .254 BABIP (his GB-rate is only 40%) and an inflated 77% strand-rate. His 4.5/4.5/4.6 FxS are much higher and his -0.8 E-F ranks 12th out of all the starters. Giants are a type of an offense that could cause Miller trouble and I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets hit hard tonight.
On the other side we have Vogelsong, who had a terrible September but was phenomenal at home against Washington in his lone playoff start so far: 5.2 inn / 2 hits / 1 ER / 4 K and 2 BB. Actually in the last 3 years, Vogelsong has been phenomenal in the playoffs: 30.1 innings, 18 hits allowed, ZERO HR’s, 4 ER’s (1.2 ERA) with 25K and 12 BB. Speaking of September, 3 of his 5 starts were on the road. In the two home starts, Vogelsong went 12 innings allowd 8 hits and 3 ER’s for a 2.3 ERA. This is important because at home this year he’s had a 3.1 ERA with a .228 BA against while a 5.1 mark on the road with a .283 BA against. Advanced stats confirm this statistically significant H/A split: 2.5 FIP at home with a 21% K-rate, 3.7 K/BB, and a miniscule 0.18 HR/9 compared to 5.4 FIP on the road with a 17.5% K-rate, 1.9 K/BB, and 1.7 HR/9. That’s a huge difference and of course that mostly has to do with the HR’s allowed at home vs on the road. I spoke yesterday about Cardinals’ inability to generate much power against right-handers, and playing in a pitcher’s park won’t help that. Vogelsong actually faced St Louis twice this year, once on the road and once at home. On the road his SIERA was 4.5 with a 4.3 xFIP. At home though, he had a 1.4 SIERA and 1.45 xFIP, his BEST individual marks against an opponent all season long. Final critical factor in Vogelsong’s favor is his reverse-platoon split this season. He’s right-handed but he’s been much more effective against lefties (3.5 FIP #66) than right-handers (4.2 FIP #126). With Molina injured, St Louis is using a left-handed catcher in Pierzynski. (Side note: it doesn’t really matter what Pierzynski’s handedness is, as he’s a terrible hitter at this point of his career). That makes 5 lefties in their lineup (Carpenter, Jay, Adams, Wong, and Pierzynski), and most of these hitters have been crucial in getting the Cards to this point. If Vogelsong can contain these guys, he should have a very good start.
St Louis is now 4-10 in their last 14 road starts while San Fran is 7-1 in their last 8 at home. And today we have a matchup of two starters who have a huge Home/Away split differential. I like the home team to get the job done.
Good Luck