Game- SF Giants at Pitt Pirates, starts approx 8:05 EDT
Lines – SFG -115 for game and -120 for F5 inning ML, game total 6.5 runs, and team totals SFG 3.5 runs (+105 Over) and Pitt 3 runs (-115 Over)
Starting pitchers - Giants LH Madison Bumgarner, aka “Mad Bum” (18-10, 2.98 ERA) vs. Pirates RH Edison Volquez (13-7, 3.04)
Picks
Core pick – Game Over 6.5 runs for 2.5 units
Related team totals pick – Pitt team total Over 3 runs for 1.5 units
F5 inning pick- SF Giants F5 inning ML for 2.5 units at -120 or 2 units at -125 to -135
Support for picks
SF/ F5 innings - While we are not taking Giants to win this game, we feel confident enough about their edge in starting pitching with Mad Bum over Volquez to make the above F5 inning pick on Giants.
Support for Over picks
It’s a very low total here at 6.5 runs, given that (i) Giants are 9-4 Over in their last 13 playoff games, (ii) Pirates’ offense averages 4.21 runs per game and (iii) the Giants average 4.10 runs per game, and the Giant bats should come alive against Volquez. Bottom line, it won't take much to get us a win with the Over – in fact, a 3-3 tie at any point in the game guarantees an Over win. So based on the below support, we’re rolling with OVER 6.5 runs as our main core pick, and adding a related line value team totals pick on Pitt to score > 3 runs.
The San Francisco Giants got a chance to line up their starting pitching in anticipation of a one-game wild card, and lefty Madison Bumgarner is ready to go tonite. The Pittsburgh Pirates, who host the Giants in the National League wild-card game tonite, fought until the final day of the regular season for the NL Central crown and did not get a chance to line up their top starter. Pittsburgh instead elected to start Gerrit Cole in their regular season finale on Sunday at Cincy, in an effort to chase down the St. Louis Cardinals in the NL Central - they got 12 strikeouts in seven innings from the right-hander, but ended up losing to the Reds and their ace, Johnny Cueto, and finishing two games shy of the Cardinals in the division. The winner of onite’s wild-card game heads to Washington to face the NL-best Nationals on Friday.
The Pirates went 51-30 at home in the regular season (tied with St. Louis and Washington for best in the NL) and won the 2013 NL wild card game at home (over Cincy), all reasons why we are resisting the temptation to go with the flow and take Mad Bum and the Giants, and are instead passing on the side. And in LY’s Wild Card win, Pirate catcher Russell Martin had a career day (3-for-4 with two home runs). Martin is listed as probable for tonite’s game after missing Pitt’s L2 games with a strained groin (an injury which is more troublesome for a catcher than any other position player).
San Francisco won the World Series in the last two even-numbered seasons and is an eye-popping 21-8 in its last 29 playoff games, including 8-2 in their last 10 road playoff games (part of the reason we don’t want to go against them, either), but is taking its first crack at advancing via the one-game Wild Card playoff, after falling out of the NL West race by losing 5 of the last six games (at SD and LA) in their final road trip, including losing 2 of 3 at Dodger Stadium in the final week.
Tonite’s PITCHING MATCHUP features Giants LH Madison Bumgarner, aka “Mad Bum” (18-10, 2.98 ERA) vs. Pirates RH Edison Volquez (13-7, 3.04). Bumgarner is unquestionably the ace of the San Francisco staff, with Matt Cain injured and Tim Lincecum taking a step back from his Cy Young heights of past seasons. Bumgarner had a string of nine straight starts allowing three or fewer earned runs come to an end in his final start of the regular season, when he yielded three home runs and was charged with four runs in 7 1/3 innings in a crucial 2-4 loss to the Dodgers in Los Angeles. And Mad Bum matched his shortest start of 2014, at home against Pittsburgh on July 28, when he was reached for five runs in four innings in an eventual 0-5 shutout loss, making him 1-3 lifetime against Pitt, including 0-1 at Pitt (a 0 -2 loss in 20-11). And while Mad Bum has been very good TY on the road (11-4 with a 2.2 ERA), his 18 road starts have averaged 7.6 total rpg, (a full run more than tonite’s low totals line). Moreover, he has not been as effective at nite (just 8-8, with SF just 9-10 in his 19 nite starts) as during the day, and his nite starts have also averaged 7.6 total rpg. And in all of his starts TY, he is 18-14-1 to the Over, with those 33 games averaging 7.6 total rpg.
Pitt starter Volquez is coming into tonite’s start hot after back-to-back scoreless outings against Milwaukee and Atlanta. And while he struck out 10 while issuing only one walk over seven innings vs the light hitting Braves in his last start, on Thursday, he often struggles with his control (e.g., in his two starts before the last one in Atlanta, he walked 8 in 14 innings). Volquez is facing the Giants for the first time this season but has a 5.72 ERA in 11 career starts against San Francisco, including 1-8 in his last 9 team starts against SF, as a member of the SD and LAD pitching staffs. He is personally winless vs the Gians L4Y, with a 4.95 ERA in 43+ innings pitched. San Francisco C Buster Posey and 3B Pablo Sandoval are a combined 11-for-22 with five doubles against Volquez.