Tonite we also like St Louis over Milw, an 8:15 EDT start. We have not decided on all picks that will make up our full betting attack strategy for the game, as we’re still checking out a few things, but for now, you can safely assume our play on St L will include at least the below pick:
SL/ML -140 listing Shelby Miller over Kyle Lohse for 2.5 units (risk 3.5 units to win 2.5 at -140 odds)
Support for pick(s) on St Louis over Milw
After going thru a horrible slump (most of it on the road), which knocked them out of the NL Central lead and almost also knocked them out of Wild Card contention, the Milwaukee Brewers are finally playing decent baseball again, having won five of their last seven games (but six of those 7 wins coming at home), and sitting six games above a .500 W-L record, and still in contention for both the NL Central crown and a Wild Card spot. But tonite they have Kyle Lohse going, and he has had a rough time against the Cardinals (his former team) since parting ways with them a few years ago. Specifically, Lohse is 3-7 with a 5.12 ERA in 12 starts against the Cardinals.
St. Louis is playing even better than Milw lately, having won 11 of their 16 games this month, incl seven of their last 11 games. And the Cards are always tough at home, where they are 48-29 for the year, including 25-11 since July 1, and bat .261 (at home) vs RH pitchers (like Milw SP Kyle Lohse). Shelby Miller gets the call tonite for the Cards, and he has had the opposite fortune of Lohse in this series, posting a superb 5-0 with a 2.30 ERA in seven career starts against the Brewers. Check out the following trends - Brewers are 1-4 in Lohse’s last 5 road starts, and 2-5 in Lohse’s last 7 starts vs. Cardinals, while Cardinals are 7-0 in Miller’s last 7 starts vs. Brewers.
And one final interesting tidbit of support for St Louis, given that tonite’s game is game 3 of TW’s series in SL – Cards are 30-15 in all series game 3s TY, making game 3 by far their best game of a series, and even better when they must win game 3 to take the series (the situation tonite, with the teams having splt the first two games).
So with SL having numerous edges in tonite’s match-up, as pointed out above, and a reasonable -140 on the consensus ML, we’ll at least play the Cards for 2.5 units at -140. And we'll let you know if we recommend any related plays on the Cards.