Even though the 4 picks in the big Under play that I posted here last nite (TB at Balt) went 4-0 for +10 units, I still feel that I “owe you guys one” after posting that play very close to game time, then sending you two more big MLB plays that fizzled, especially the late one on Miami-Angels. So I’m posting this huge 15 unit play on tonite’s TB- Balt game in plenty of time for you guys to reliew the picks and my support for same, and play them if you want. I’m focusing mostly on the Under, but also playing Tampa at +1/2 run on the F5 line and two pretty solid Prop plays at good odds). This is the only MLB play I’ll be posting tonite, as I need to finish my work on tonite’s CFB games, on which I likely will have a few picks.
BOL if you decide to follow my lead and play my plays.
Great Owl
15 total units on Balt-TB, mostly on the Under, game starts 7:05 EDT
Game – Tampa at Balt, starts 7:05 EDT
PITCHING MATCH-UP: Rays RH Jeremy Hellickson (1-2, 2.61 ERA) vs. Orioles RH Bud Norris (11-8, 3.91)
Consensus lines – Game total 8, F5 total 4.5, team totals Tampa 3.5 and Balt 4, F5 RL Tampa +1/2 run at -135 or 140 odds
Prop odds
-125 that there will be NO RUNS scored in first inning
-130 odds that Tampa will be first team to score
Picks
Top pick – F5 Under 4.5 runs for 3 units (or 2 units if your F5 total is 4)
Other picks
Game under 8 runs for 2.5 units
Tampa F5 RL +1/2 run at -135 or 140 odds to win 2 units
Balt team total Under 4 runs for 2 units
TB team total Under 3.5 runs for one unit
Prop plays
There will be NO RUNS scored in first inning (-125 odds) for 2.5 units
Tampa will be first team to score (-130 odds) for 2 units
Support for above plays
We cashed in big time last nite with the Under in this series and like the Under again here, for many of the same reasons, starting with the fact that both teams have been Under CASH COWS in their respective home/road modes tonite, with Tampa 27-37 Under on the road, averaging just 7.55 total rpg, and Balt 22-38 Under in their home games TY, also averaging just 7.55 total rpg. And both teams have been trending Under lately , with Tampa 4-13-2 Under in L19 games, including 3-8 Under L10 (which averaged just 6.7 total rpg, with TB scoring only 2.8 rpg), and Balt 3-9-1 Under in their L13 games, including 3-8 Under L11 (which averaged just 6.65 total rpg, with Balt pitching allowing only 2.9 rpg). Unfortunately, tonite’s home plate ump, Lazaro Diaz,, has a 16-7 Over record in his 23 games TY behind the plate, which averaged 8.65 total rpg, but he has an “Under-friendly” large strike zone as indicated by his 64% strike % and 2.5/1 SO/walk ratio.
Tonite we have another “Under-friendly” pitching match-up here in Baltimore. The O's will send RHP Bud Norris to the mound with his 3.91 ERA and a 11-8 record. Norris lost his last outing on the road and will look to add another win to his credit here tonight. Norris hasn't seen this Tampa line-up since May 7th (and vice versa), which we believe will help Norris keep the Rays’ hitters in check. Tampa has struggled to put a solid game together on offense lately, and while they did get the win last night, they scored just 3 runs, and have struggled at the plate for F3 games of this series in Balt. The O's had to face LHP Smyly last night and now have to face RHP in Hellickson, so the timing may be off a shade here for the O's as they flip-flop here from an opposing LHP back to RHP. Hellickson has yielded two or fewer runs in five of his seven starts since returning to the rotation in early July (from off-season elbow surgery), including his last outing against Toronto when he gave up two in 6 1/3 innings. Hellickson has limited opponents to a .224 batting average. Hellickson has dropped his last 3 starts but hasn't had a bad game. He only allowed 13 hits and 5 runs in those 3 games. His strike outs have actually gone up as he recorded 19 in those last 3 games. He knows that this is a huge game, so we expect a solid effort on his end tonight. Baltimore iscomfortably in the lead right now in the AL East, but lately their bats are not working to their capability, as the O's have only plated 9 runs outside of a 9 run game in their last 6, and last night was their 3rd one run scoring game in those 6 games. Again, with them seeing a LHP last night, and now back to a RHP, the may not be able to get a solid hitting effort against Hellickson, and we see this one again staying comfortably Under the total of 8.
So getting the full # here at 8, we’ll officially go with the game Under, like last nite. But also like last nite, we won’t stop there, as our full betting attack strategy for this game also has generated the same 3 additional related totals plays (in addition to our official full game totals pick) as last nite – Under 4.5 runs for F5 innings, the strongest of our four Under plays, and both team totals Under (Balt Under 4 runs, and Tampa light Under 3.5), all well supported by our extensive research and numbers.
We are also playing two Props, one team prop and one scoring prop), which BTW are also well supported by our extensive research and numbers, primarily relating to both starting pitchers in the F5 innings in starts TY in their respective modes (Norris at home and Hellickson away). Finally, we are also making a F5 RL value play on Tampa at +1/2 run and -135 or 140 odds, as that half run at a decent price could be a very good investment in an expected close, low scoring game.