10 units Under on Bat-TB, starts 7:05 EDT
Picks
Top pick – F5 Under 4.5 runs for 4 units
Game under 8 runs for 2.5 units
TB TT Under 4 runs for 2 units
Balt TT Under 4 runs for 1.5 units
Support for TB at Balt Under
We like the Under here, as both teams have been Under CASH COWS in their respective home/road modes tonite, with Tampa 27-36 Under on the road, averaging just 7.6 total rpg, and Balt 22-37 Under in their home games TY, also averaging just 7.6 total rpg. And both teams have been trending Under lately , with Tampa 4-12-2 Under in L18 games, including 3-7 Under L10 (which averaged just 6.8 total rpg, with TB scoring only 2.8 rpg), and Balt 3-8-1 Under in their L12 games, including 3-7 Under L10 (which averaged just 6.7 total rpg, with Balt pitching allowing only 2.9 rpg). And tonite’s home plate ump, Scott Barry, has been a friend to Under players TY, with a 7-15 Under record in his 22 games behind the plate, which averaged 7.65 total rpg, and a 64% strike % with a nearly 3/1 SO/walk ratio. Tonite’s two starters, Gausman for Balt and Smyly for TB, have been pretty neutral, totals-wise, TY, but note that (i) Smyly is pitching great lately, with a 0.75 ERA in his L3 starts, all of which easily stayed Under and averaged just 6.7 total rpg, and beat the O’s in Balt TY 4-1, in his only career start against them, and (ii) Balt starter Gausman is really tough at nite, where he has a 2.4 ERA in six nite starts, which has translated into 6 Balt wins and a 2-4 nite Under log, with those six nite starts averaging just 6.5 total rpg. So getting the full # here at 8, we’ll officially go with the game Under. But we won’t stop there, as our full betting attack strategy for this game also has generated 3 more related totals plays (in addition to our official full game totals pick) – Under 4.5 runs for F5 innings, and both team totals Under 4 runs, all well supported by our extensive research and numbers.