Seattle Mariners -1 RL @ -150 combined odds
Bet 0.97 Units to win 0.53 Units @ -184 ML
Bet 0.52 Units to win 0.47 Units @ -1.5 RL -110
Tot: 1.5 Units to win 1.0 Units @ -150 combined odds
Basically doing a -1 RL play here so if Seattle wins by 1 then it’s a PUSH on the play.
In Joe Kelly’s first 3 starts with Boston, he’s allowed 15 hits and issued 13 BB’s in 17 innings. That’s 28 base-runners in 17 innings and it was all against STL, CIN, HOU, teams that aren’t very strong offensively against righties. Mariners rank 14th offensively against right-handers, the best offensive team against righties that Kelly will have faced so far. They will also have a ton of left-handed batters in their lineup which could be an issue for Kelly. Compare Kelly’s numbers against lefties and righties this season:
Vs R: 6.7 K/9 (18% K%), 1.8 BB/9 (5% BB%), 3.8 K/BB, 1.1 HR/9, 4.1 FIP and 3.5 xFIP with .301 OBP
Vs L: 5.1 K/9 (12% K%), 6.2 BB/9 (14% BB%), 0.8 K/BB, 0.7 HR/9, 5.0 FIP and 5.1 xFIP with .405 OBP
Clearly the difference is staggering here and it all starts with the BB-rates variances between lefties and righties. Seattle will have 7 lefties in the lineup today and as long as they stay patient, I like their chances to be productive. So far in August, Kelly has a 12% K-rate and a 17% BB-rate. He can’t find the strike-zone, resulting in a 5.9 FIP and 5.6 xFIP. Big part of the issue is that his ‘changeup’ (a decent pitch in 2013) has not been working for him this season, and it’s the biggest reason why he’s struggling so much against left-handers. If Kelly struggled so much against Houston at home in his last start, I would be confident to assume that he’ll have a tough time with this lefty-dominant Seattle lineup as well. I don’t think I even need to discuss King Felix going up against Boston’s 24th ranked lineup that has a wRC+ of 76 over the last 30-days. Basically the Red Sox have been 24% worse than an average MLB lineup at generating runs over the last month of the season. Hernandez is coming off a 92 pitch outing, his lowest total in his last 19 starts, and will have 5 days of rest prior to today’s appearance. I expect a dominant outing from him.
Good Luck