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Tony George - MLB Trap Line Alert

Thread Starter Tony George - MLB Trap Line Alert
Tony George
Joined: 08/22/2006
Posts: 8718
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Top 75 Contributor

Colorado -  vs Kansas City

 

Courtesy of Tony George 

Colorado is favored here tonight at home.  You are kidding me right?  KC the hottest team in bases...right?   Killing everyone and they have OWNED the Rockies all season...right?  The best Interleague team in baseball at 15-4 right? Blindly with Duffy on the hill with a solid ERA for KC in his last 3 and getting better in each start, he should be laying about -140 or so after KC just destroyed the Rockies last Night....right?     Wrong! CLASSIC TRAP LINE BY ODDSMAKERS.

Oddsmakers have Colorado a small favorite and while the Rockies are batting .500 as a team against southpaws their last 5 games, KC is simply unbeatable right now and in total sync.  Oddsmakers BEGGING you to take Kansas City tonight, and the square bet is to take KC at a near pick'em to a small dog.

(I have seen this type of scenario a thousand times in my 22 year career):  The play is Colorado minus the small number

NOTE:  College Football Early Bird Discount Package Up NOW!  Take advantage of it.  Big 12, Big 10 and SEC my main emphasis this year...CASH IN

ALL NFLX PLAYS FOR THE WEEK AND WEEKEND ARE OUT.

PSS - I WILL BE AT LVH FOR THE SUPER CONTEST ON FRIDAY - LOOK ME UP IF YOU ARE IN TOWN!

Regards,

Tony George -  Pregame Pro Handicapper since 2006 - Radio Host on Yahoo Sports Radio  

*22 years Veteran Handicapper


*Big 12 - Mo Valley Expert

*#1 March Madness Capper by Sports Watch in 2014 - Over 71% ATS

* #4 Ranked NBA Playoff Capper by Sports Watch in 2014 - 64% ATS 

Motto:  "I hate to lose, more than I Love to Win"

Yahoo Sports Radio - Host of the  Locker Room Picks Show every Saturday and Sunday 11am-12 EST -  I do all Game day Lead in Coverage with a panel of cappers and celebrity guests, many Pregame Pros appear on the show..  Tune in live online or on one of their 400+ affiliates! Sunday's Show carried now on Sirrus Channel 92 at 11 am EST 

Twitter @tgeorgesports

SharkMan23
Joined: 06/11/2012
Posts: 5162
All Pro
Top 150 Contributor

Im am on the Rockies tonight myself Mr. George.....Lets cash it

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
NFL3118063.271032.00
ShayMonue
Joined: 03/24/2014
Posts: 1965
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor
Tony George

Colorado -  vs Kansas City

 

Courtesy of Tony George 

Colorado is favored here tonight at home.  You are kidding me right?  KC the hottest team in bases...right?   Killing everyone and they have OWNED the Rockies all season...right?  The best Interleague team in baseball at 15-4 right? Blindly with Duffy on the hill with a solid ERA for KC in his last 3 and getting better in each start, he should be laying about -140 or so after KC just destroyed the Rockies last Night....right?     Wrong! CLASSIC TRAP LINE BY ODDSMAKERS.

Oddsmakers have Colorado a small favorite and while the Rockies are batting .500 as a team against southpaws their last 5 games, KC is simply unbeatable right now and in total sync.  Oddsmakers BEGGING you to take Kansas City tonight, and the square bet is to take KC at a near pick'em to a small dog.

(I have seen this type of scenario a thousand times in my 22 year career):  The play is Colorado minus the small number

NOTE:  College Football Early Bird Discount Package Up NOW!  Take advantage of it.  Big 12, Big 10 and SEC my main emphasis this year...CASH IN

ALL NFLX PLAYS FOR THE WEEK AND WEEKEND ARE OUT.

PSS - I WILL BE AT LVH FOR THE SUPER CONTEST ON FRIDAY - LOOK ME UP IF YOU ARE IN TOWN!

Let me get this straight because your post is not clear. You think KC should be favourite at -140 but you're backing Colarado?



ShayMonue
Joined: 03/24/2014
Posts: 1965
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Top 500 Contributor

For the record Matchbook makes this game

KC -105

CR +103



Tony George
Joined: 08/22/2006
Posts: 8718
All Pro
Top 75 Contributor

Ask yourself this - What has KC done the past 30 days?   What have they done in InterLeague this season?  How good has Duffy looked the last month?  What is KC's record this year against Colorado? (3-0)  What did KC do last night to them?  Who is the hottest team in the majors?   What does Colorado have besides a team riddled with injuries?

Hell yes Kansas City should be favored....I have a power rating difference in this game at -34 between the 2 teams which equates to around -132  

Regards,

Tony George -  Pregame Pro Handicapper since 2006 - Radio Host on Yahoo Sports Radio  

*22 years Veteran Handicapper


*Big 12 - Mo Valley Expert

*#1 March Madness Capper by Sports Watch in 2014 - Over 71% ATS

* #4 Ranked NBA Playoff Capper by Sports Watch in 2014 - 64% ATS 

Motto:  "I hate to lose, more than I Love to Win"

Yahoo Sports Radio - Host of the  Locker Room Picks Show every Saturday and Sunday 11am-12 EST -  I do all Game day Lead in Coverage with a panel of cappers and celebrity guests, many Pregame Pros appear on the show..  Tune in live online or on one of their 400+ affiliates! Sunday's Show carried now on Sirrus Channel 92 at 11 am EST 

Twitter @tgeorgesports

Tony George
Joined: 08/22/2006
Posts: 8718
All Pro
Top 75 Contributor

PS The line moved a little since I wrote this earlier today....that said bacically pick em....

Regards,

Tony George -  Pregame Pro Handicapper since 2006 - Radio Host on Yahoo Sports Radio  

*22 years Veteran Handicapper


*Big 12 - Mo Valley Expert

*#1 March Madness Capper by Sports Watch in 2014 - Over 71% ATS

* #4 Ranked NBA Playoff Capper by Sports Watch in 2014 - 64% ATS 

Motto:  "I hate to lose, more than I Love to Win"

Yahoo Sports Radio - Host of the  Locker Room Picks Show every Saturday and Sunday 11am-12 EST -  I do all Game day Lead in Coverage with a panel of cappers and celebrity guests, many Pregame Pros appear on the show..  Tune in live online or on one of their 400+ affiliates! Sunday's Show carried now on Sirrus Channel 92 at 11 am EST 

Twitter @tgeorgesports

Tony George
Joined: 08/22/2006
Posts: 8718
All Pro
Top 75 Contributor

The moral of the Story - When smell a dog turd, and it looks like a dog turd, it IS a dog turd.  Too good to be true.....Colorado or nothing here boys.....

Regards,

Tony George -  Pregame Pro Handicapper since 2006 - Radio Host on Yahoo Sports Radio  

*22 years Veteran Handicapper


*Big 12 - Mo Valley Expert

*#1 March Madness Capper by Sports Watch in 2014 - Over 71% ATS

* #4 Ranked NBA Playoff Capper by Sports Watch in 2014 - 64% ATS 

Motto:  "I hate to lose, more than I Love to Win"

Yahoo Sports Radio - Host of the  Locker Room Picks Show every Saturday and Sunday 11am-12 EST -  I do all Game day Lead in Coverage with a panel of cappers and celebrity guests, many Pregame Pros appear on the show..  Tune in live online or on one of their 400+ affiliates! Sunday's Show carried now on Sirrus Channel 92 at 11 am EST 

Twitter @tgeorgesports

ShayMonue
Joined: 03/24/2014
Posts: 1965
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor

If you make the game -132 KC then you should be having your max bet on KC at -106.

There is no cloaks or daggers here just the market consensus is different from your numbers. If you don't trust your numbers to bet KC in this spot then you'd have to question what is the point in doing the work to produce these numbers.



Tony George
Joined: 08/22/2006
Posts: 8718
All Pro
Top 75 Contributor

Your missing the point...One SHOULD be on KC..but this line is a dead giveaway to either stay away or take Colorado only...please look up TRAP LINE.  

I do trust me my numbers........ EXCEPT when my numbers are 30-40 cents off on a moneyline which is a huge overlay versus the line, then something is amiss..while I cannot put my finger on it, I have seen this occur so many times I cannot count them all, and more times than not the obvious choice ends up a loser..

The play is Colorado or nothing.....not arguing the point further.   I have 22 years of experience of seeing this uncommon type of scenario occur from time to time.

Regards,

Tony George -  Pregame Pro Handicapper since 2006 - Radio Host on Yahoo Sports Radio  

*22 years Veteran Handicapper


*Big 12 - Mo Valley Expert

*#1 March Madness Capper by Sports Watch in 2014 - Over 71% ATS

* #4 Ranked NBA Playoff Capper by Sports Watch in 2014 - 64% ATS 

Motto:  "I hate to lose, more than I Love to Win"

Yahoo Sports Radio - Host of the  Locker Room Picks Show every Saturday and Sunday 11am-12 EST -  I do all Game day Lead in Coverage with a panel of cappers and celebrity guests, many Pregame Pros appear on the show..  Tune in live online or on one of their 400+ affiliates! Sunday's Show carried now on Sirrus Channel 92 at 11 am EST 

Twitter @tgeorgesports

ShayMonue
Joined: 03/24/2014
Posts: 1965
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor

So you do all that work on your numbers but won't back them when it throws up a discrepancy that should be a big bet. Unless you're insinuating that matche's that are 30-40 cents out on your numbers are fixed (it's possible because a fix will distort the betting markets) then you should be either backing KC or tweaking your numbers because they're wrong.

Please don't insult people who raise constructive points on your thread by saying you're not arguing the point any further and I'm not bothered how many years experience you have, it doesn't matter in this instance.

It may just be that you're completely wrong about De La Rosa on your ratings and this is why your numbers are out. I'd like another MLB handicapper to give their ratings for this match.



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