Colorado - vs Kansas City
Courtesy of Tony George
Colorado is favored here tonight at home. You are kidding me right? KC the hottest team in bases...right? Killing everyone and they have OWNED the Rockies all season...right? The best Interleague team in baseball at 15-4 right? Blindly with Duffy on the hill with a solid ERA for KC in his last 3 and getting better in each start, he should be laying about -140 or so after KC just destroyed the Rockies last Night....right? Wrong! CLASSIC TRAP LINE BY ODDSMAKERS.
Oddsmakers have Colorado a small favorite and while the Rockies are batting .500 as a team against southpaws their last 5 games, KC is simply unbeatable right now and in total sync. Oddsmakers BEGGING you to take Kansas City tonight, and the square bet is to take KC at a near pick'em to a small dog.
(I have seen this type of scenario a thousand times in my 22 year career): The play is Colorado minus the small number
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Regards, Tony George - Pregame Pro Handicapper since 2006 - Radio Host on Yahoo Sports Radio
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Im am on the Rockies tonight myself Mr. George.....Lets cash it
Ask yourself this - What has KC done the past 30 days? What have they done in InterLeague this season? How good has Duffy looked the last month? What is KC's record this year against Colorado? (3-0) What did KC do last night to them? Who is the hottest team in the majors? What does Colorado have besides a team riddled with injuries?
Hell yes Kansas City should be favored....I have a power rating difference in this game at -34 between the 2 teams which equates to around -132
PS The line moved a little since I wrote this earlier today....that said bacically pick em....
The moral of the Story - When smell a dog turd, and it looks like a dog turd, it IS a dog turd. Too good to be true.....Colorado or nothing here boys.....
Your missing the point...One SHOULD be on KC..but this line is a dead giveaway to either stay away or take Colorado only...please look up TRAP LINE.
I do trust me my numbers........ EXCEPT when my numbers are 30-40 cents off on a moneyline which is a huge overlay versus the line, then something is amiss..while I cannot put my finger on it, I have seen this occur so many times I cannot count them all, and more times than not the obvious choice ends up a loser..
The play is Colorado or nothing.....not arguing the point further. I have 22 years of experience of seeing this uncommon type of scenario occur from time to time.
Whenever people speak of the trap line theory I find it interesting that they automatically say to go ahead and take the other side, as though they have completely forgotten the juice involved in this whole scenario. Just because you do not back one side doesn't mean you should automatically back the other. I know you back peddled from your initial post and are saying "Colorado or nothing" instead of just Colorado. You see this kind of thinking in almost all trap line posts though.
You want a handicapping tip? Spend as much time getting a good number as you do researching games. Depositing/withdrawing/depositing/withdrawing is a pain, but I guarantee you will lose less, or win more. I can't guarantee that for any other piece of advice
"There is no such thing as luck, just random fluctuations of probability"
I can make a logical case to back Rockies here as they have a very solid home record and have a pitcher that pitches very well at home
Then Don't take them if you feel that way Shay. Sometimes it is what you DON'T do that counts.
And yes the common terminology Lloyd is to say take the non obvious choice or nothing. And while that may very well be the standard I have made a SHITLOAD of money doing just that in these cases over the years. I do not automatically back the other side, it is clearly stated that I have seen this thousands of times and "more times than not" the team most unlikely to win, wins....90% of the time I pass on them....but when they are simply too good to be true,
i DO NOT BET BLINDLY OVERLAYS ON POWER RATINGS JUST BECAUSE A SET VALUE EXCEEDS WHAT I DETERMINE A MOVE TO BE MADE. Again, speaking from 22 years of experience, I have seen this time and time again, and it more times than not the NON Obvious choice wins out. I call them a trap line like most sharps would..and I go against what the common bettor would think.
Off to golf league, you guys can fight it out and expose my shortcomings here in my absence.
That last statement was my attempt at sarcasm. As a diehard Royals fan living in Kansas I hope I am wrong....but KC due to fall and sweeping any one team in 2 separate series, especially out of division is a rare feat.