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Dave's Free Friday MLB

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Dave Essler
Joined: 11/01/2009
Posts: 17300
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We're on a nice run since the AS break picking up a ton of "marbles" and only having one slight losing day, so thanks to those that have enjoyed that success with us. Here's a semi-contrarian bet we made for tonight. 

970 TAM / 969 ANAOVER 7.5 BetOnline
Analysis: Well, I wasn't patient enough to get the best number, or at least the vig, but I don't think it matters. I don't have a ton of respect for Hellickson, and Shoemaker is very over valued right now (IMO). Hellickson, since coming back, has beaten Boston who can't hit and Kansas City who sucks on the road. These are the Angels who are neither and Hellickson is a flyball pitcher. I think you have to throw out most of the 52 at bats the Angels have against him. That was, for the most part, the first time they'd seen him AND when he was much more reliable. The Angels are a better "over" team on the road, and even though they failed to score more than one run last night, they did have a dozen hits. I am somewhat concerned that their pen has been pretty good lately, but perhaps TOO good, because they had to play 13 innings in Baltimore last night and use 6 arms from the pen for at least an inning, which brings me back to Shoemaker. On the road his ERA is 6.66 and he's given up 6 bombs in only 25 innings (hence although everyone likes the Angels, I do not and may play the Rays shortly) and he hasn't thrown a road game since JUNE when the Royals killed him. I fully expect to see the Angels bullpen sooner rather than later. The Rays had yesterday off (hence pen advantage) but have played to five straight "unders" and couple that with an under venue, and that's where I see this over reaction coming from. So, we are going to add the Rays. One way or another, they'll either win this game or if the masses on the Angels are right, it'll go way over. I think the masses are wrong on both counts and the Rays win 5-4 give or take. Better and more rested back end, even if they're SLIGHTLY undermatched with the starters, and I think "slightly" is more like it, compared to what others seem to think.

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Some forum posters have broken into the industry and have achieved moderate success while carrying themselves with professionalism and integrity. Dave Essler, of the pick-selling site Pregame, immediately comes to mind. 

"I am a Director of the Boards!"

Joined: 07/30/2014
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Good luck Dave. Much respect and thanks

Joined: 12/13/2011
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like it good analysis im on it thanks disco dave

lets go vikings superbowl or bust.

Bankerz Bets
Joined: 02/19/2013
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BOL this weekend Dave!

mobig wins
Joined: 12/10/2009
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Thanks bro hopefully my Halos start hitting.

Joined: 01/07/2013
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Thanks Dave. I followed and won!

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