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Who's the best baseball pro at Pregame?

Who's the best baseball pro at Pregame?
pnadams23
Joined: 12/24/2011
Posts: 103
College Recruit
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Yes it's definitely about profit not win %. Thanks for your work on the SDQL queries, have been with you on it a handful of times!

sportyatl
Joined: 04/23/2014
Posts: 30
Waterboy
Not Ranked

I think the even better question is "Which of your handicappers has the highest net profit in baseball over ALL seasons"

Dr. Ed Meyer
Joined: 06/21/2012
Posts: 2518
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor

sportyatl

I think the even better question is "Which of your handicappers has the highest net profit in baseball over ALL seasons"

It is natural for customers to doubt a handicapper's success.  On these pages, many customers complain if the handicapper keeps quoting results from a couple of seasons ago when they are having a terrible year this season and if the handicapper is having a good season, the customers say, well, what about last season?  Fair enough.

In general, I would agree that the best question is, "Which handicapper is best over ALL seasons."

However, there are exceptions.  It is similar to using team trends from the 2000-01 Rams in an effort to predict what the Rams will do this season.  If the team has changed and evolved, trends from the past are not that useful.  If a handicapper has adopted new tactics, performance in the past is not a good predictor of future results.

We were not having a good year in baseball last season so we stopped releasing plays and invested our time trying to figure out what was going wrong.  We went back to the drawing board and found that virtually all of our league-wide, multi-season systems were STILL winning, but the variability came with the short-term team-based and starter-based trends.  As a result, we announced on pregame before the 2014 season started, we were going to strongly emphasize league-wide systems that have made a profit season after season over shorter-term team and starter based trends.

We also announced that we would not be writing up games this season because we do not want to give away valuable systems.

So, this season, a league-wide system in which road teams are 1617-1592 (+183 net games) since 2004 will take precedent over a recently evolved team trend that is, say, 12-0.

These league-wide systems have ROIs of better than 10% and hundreds of games (some well over 1000 games).  The system plays were going to be culled with team and starter-based performance indicators.

A second point that is worth mentioning is that handicapping strategies that worked in the past simply do not work anymore.   There are MANY teams of math and computer geeks interrogating the MLB data in order to squeeze out line value.  These guys are in Malaysia, China, Germany, Russia, Belgium, Australia and many other places.  The days of beating the oddsmakers by simply "betting the better starting pitcher" are over.

So, if a handicapper produced good results in the past and is not winning any more, there may be an assignable cause.

At the beginning of the season, we forecast a net profit of between 60-90 dimes in 2014 baseball.  We are +45 dimes at the All-Star break and oozing confidence.  It is very hard to argue that 45 dimes of profit is the result of a random fluctuation.

Dr M.

Dr. Ed Meyer *Physics PhD (Case Western Reserve) *Featured in New Yorker: “Brainiacs Build Money Machine!” *Certified SDQL Master!

Fezzik
Joined: 12/11/2012
Posts: 3055
All Pro
Top 200 Contributor

I agree Prof Meyer makes a strong case here for why THIS year's results ARE the most important.  However, we cannot throw prior year's results in the garbage can.

Also, we only have 1/2 a year's data for 2014.

With a full year's data a logical weighting might be 45% this year, 30% ly, 15% 2 years ago, 10% 3 years ago.

Since 2014 is a partial year, I don't believe weighting it more than 2013 is a good idea.

So to simplify:  i'd take the capper up the most in 2013-2014 to bet the 'best'.   If it's close, I would go back to prior years.....

Obviously, if we could get Prof. Meyer to subcontract one MLB capper, and he could run his SDQL selections by HIM, and then edit out the ones the capper disagreed with, this would make it even better IMO..........

Not to say SDQL won't win............but I think this would win more...........

Dr. Ed Meyer
Joined: 06/21/2012
Posts: 2518
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor

Fezzik,

I personally, do not eat, live, sleep and breathe baseball.  Some baseball handicappers do.  If there was a guy like this that I could run my plays by every day, as a final culling, there is indeed the possibility that they would be even better.  HOWEVER, this is exactly what I tried to do last season and it didn't work.  The fine-tuning of "I'm not betting on this pitcher because he sucks," simply doesn't work.  In fact, most of my customers have to hold their nose to bet my plays because they go against the cognoscenti.  Recently, I got a complaint in my personal blog at pregame that I was "going against another ace."  I responded, "Get used to it, I go against a team's ace starting pitcher all the time because that's where the value is."

Actually, what I really think I'm doing with my league-wide, multi-season systems is handicapping the BETTORS rather than the teams themselves.  What I have found is the BETTORS overestimate and underestimate the importance of certain results and I have been capitalizing on this -- a strategy with which you are very familiar.

What we really need is some of these baseball guys to learn how to use the SDQL to interrogate the historical results in baseball.

I have been trying to teach how to use the SDQL by posting videos for free at SDQLConsultancy.com and by holding live seminars like the one you attended in Las Vegas last year.  Personally, I can't understand how a professional handicapper can continue to ignore presence of the SDQL.  It's like handicapping without using the internet.

If any pregame handicapper wants to learn the SDQL, he can let me know and I'll be more than happy to guide him through it.

Dr M.

Dr. Ed Meyer *Physics PhD (Case Western Reserve) *Featured in New Yorker: “Brainiacs Build Money Machine!” *Certified SDQL Master!

pnadams23
Joined: 12/24/2011
Posts: 103
College Recruit
Not Ranked

Great reads guys. All good points. Changes are definitely made from the past so looking at an overall performance (say, dating back 8 years) may not be best. And with only a half season of data you can't base it solely on 2014 either, as you said Steve. Thanks for all the thoughts and input. Fezz will there be a season football package for you, or strictly the "Bet like a pro" route?

Eric Cogdell
Joined: 11/25/2009
Posts: 3150
All Pro
Top 200 Contributor

Over the past several years I would have to say Goodfella clearly. Also, Marco but now he is gone. Dave has always provided a wealth of knowledge with his detailed analysis, before turning pro and still to this day. Now that we have Nover here he is right at the top of the list and yes you Dr. Ed should be considered as well. This is jmho and nothing more, nothing less.

khurram
Joined: 08/04/2010
Posts: 100
Prep School
Not Ranked

I always buy GF or Dave and sometimes other cappers if they are on a good streak.

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