Not much to say other than that June has been a whole LOT of fun. Clarity is good, but solid fundamentals on the bases is great. Do the Work and Stack that Green! Remember it's Friday, so don't blow your wad before the weekend. Freaky things happen; know your limit and play within it.
**Oakland Athletics/Baltimore Orioles Over 9 (-110) ~ Expect both lefties get roughed up here. Probably can't go wrong with either team total at Over 4.5 (-115). A's/Over (+275).
Will there be a run scored in the first inning;
Yes (-115) $100 ~ Although I fully expect the A's will score, Milone's first inning ERA is also north of 7.
New York Yankees (-105) Mini ~ I fully expect this one to be lost by the Yankees' bullpen, however I expect about 5 IP (maybe 6 because it's the Royals) from Whitley and I do think the Bombers get to Guthrie first. A ton of early Big Apple love is telling me to stay off this game line.
**Milwaukee Brewers/Pittsburgh Pirates Over 7½ (-105) ~ Despite Lohse on the mound, I love this game to fly Over and probably early. The Crew have been skinning the ball and despite a blip in Liriano's start the Bucs have been, too. I will also play the Over mini as a single at 4 or a double-play at 3½. I DO think the public has this one right.....for a change. Let's expect a few to leave PNC tonight.
Over 4 (+100)
I do expect runs at the Rogers' Centre, but with the lack of familiarity and EE's status uncertain....the Over will be a half value job only. Let's see what the line says, as laying -130 in the kid's second MLB start (against the Cards no less) just isn't going to happen. Amazing that the Jays already have 5 players with double-digit HRs AND Rasmus has been on the DL a while and has nine. Power to burn....top to bottom. Lynn has not allowed a bomb in 52 IP under the lights, but by the time he hits the showers tonight I expect that stat will be a distant memory. Lynn hyper-flexed his knee is the last outing, so watch for early trouble. Personally, with the Jays 19-4 run I think you need to be a little "touched" to play against them? With the juice drop, I have now added a token play on the Toronto Blue Jays (-124).
Despite the fact that Ryu has been amazing on the road, he showed the Mets that he is NOT untouchable in his last roadie. It is going to be awfully difficult to pass up on the Rockies (+115) with a kid the Dodge has never seen. Their team BA at Coors is an unbelievable .335. How can they not win games? The fact that they have historically scalded LHP has got to come into play at some point....doesn't it? We'll get back to this one later, but no chance of backing LAD here. The Dodgers have barely hit their weight over the last week, so it may be a good spot for the "rook"?
I am very carefully considering the Indians (+160) as today's Howlin' Dog? Take note that this play will be largely predicated on Darvish's expected lack of RS and the Rangers' lack of familiarity with Bauer. Distinct edge to the Cleveland bullpen, so we'll have to look a bit deeper here. It IS on the back-burner. Just not real confident that the Tribe can take their "show" on the road. I do like the "Over" here, so IF Yu does lack the support....the Indians should win. Although I believe they may, their roadwork doesn't inspire enough confidence to make them a HD. I do believe that there is some value in the Indians +1½ (-140) RL, though. Perhaps a parlay add?
Chicago Cubs (-119) ~ Getting Hammel at this price at Wrigley clearly looks like a steal to me. Obvious concerns about the Chicago bullpen, so the mini will also be in play if the price is right (-125+/-). Pitch carefully to Big Mike in the 1st, Jason. Chicago Cubs (-125) Mini ~ Half value - That run came not a moment too soon ~ I know you'll need to see this for yourself, but the Cubs' staff has allowed the fewest HRs in MLB....believe it or not.
Boston Red Sox (+120) $100 ~ I am not sold on Smyly and the Detroit fade continues. As long as Rubby can throw it over the plate, the Tigers probably won't hit it. C'mon, Big Papi! The BoSox woeful record against the Central (3-9) is a bit disconcerting....hence the minimalist play. Boston got smacked around a bit in their last meeting. I hope they haven't forgotten. They are 13-3 in their last 16 roadies vs a lefty starter.
An early Red-Flag Alert on the Washington Nationals. In a game that likely won't see more than 4 or 5 runs, one swing will probably do it? Hey, the Pads won with one hit the other day. Looks like one to fade JQP on. San Francisco Giants....be very careful here. There is a sound reason why the Mets' RL is so costly. Just sayin'......
Houston Astros (+106) ~ Keuchel (yep, man-crush) has been a flat-out monster on the road. Aside from his 5-0 record when visiting, he has allowed a mere .188 BAA and a 1.64 ERA. Kubel has touched him up, but Keuchel '14 is a different animal altogether. Hughes has been very good and as I implied last outing; I do not believe that any pitcher now wants it more. In a low-scoring game, I expect he probably blinks first, though. I expect the Under 4 (-115) Mini and will be all over it. We may very well be scoreless after five? Expect a gopher ball makes the difference in this one and with a LHP, I have to give the Astros the edge.
Chicago White Sox/Los Angeles Angels Under 4 (-105) Mini ~ Rienzo is NOT as bad as his numbers may indicate and I, in fact, see a real progression. I think that he can skate through the order a couple of times and we know what Weaver can do. Neither team hitting the ball with much real authority lately. Let's just take the bullpens out of this equation.
Grand Salami Over 124½ (-110) 124 ~ I do not think that the 8½ runs allotted per game will be enough tonight. I expect a few really crooked scores. Probable upgrade, but we'll see what line-ups are posted prior to 4 PM EST.
There are a few Series' plays that I have found value in contained in the thread.
One I am on early at 20/1;
**Milwaukee Brewers Over 3½ (-120)
Oakland Athletics Over 4½ (-110)
Colorado Rockies Over 4½ (-120)
Atlanta Braves Over 4 (-120)
San Diego Padres (-123)