On Today's Show..
N.Y. Mets @ Philadelphia
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MARCO'S MONDAY MLB MASSACRE
Start your week off with a big winner as I have one game that jumps off the page tonight. I love the pitching matchup along with the situational and scheduling dynamics of this play. Join me as we open the week with a big winner. Get my Monday Massacre as we start what promises to big a huge week. We have Baseball, NBA Finals and the Belmont on Saturday. This is going to be a big week let's get it started tonight. Get MARCO'S MONDAY MLB MASSACRE for just $26..
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Marco, I've been doing my best over the past couple years of following you (and the pregame crew) to pay attention to your handicapping style and trends that you look at when you are giving your analysis of a card.
I've been listening to the betting first look now for a few weeks and I'm trying to do the same with MLB. I wanted to list a few things I've noticed, just to see if I'm on track and if you have the opportunity to reply when possible I would appreciate it. I just wanted to make sure I'm on track with some of these trends in MLB.
1)The starting pitching match-up: Look for a regression by comparing previous starts. A good spot to fade or back a team could come from a quality prediction of what he's going to accomplish. Look at his last 3 starts, if he has been pitching well or had a previous lights-out performance, there is a probability that he is going to regress...and vise-verse. A good example of this was the Cubs the other night.)
2) Starting pitching: make a comparison between home/road record, WHIP, & ERA. If you find a spot where a favorite might struggle on the road (such as the Mets tonight for example) this might be a spot to find value on the ML.
3)Starting pitching: Look for a bounce-back situation, especially from an ace who struggled last time out, or last time out vs team facing. Opportunity is there for him to have a quality outing.
4) Heading back to the "scene of the crime": No team is as good as one blowout, or one time getting blown out. Look for a bounce back game in game 2 of a series. (Good example of this would be the Brewers last night).
5) Start of a road trip: more focus from a team and a time you would look to back a team.
6) Coming off a road trip, first game back home: Look to fade a team in this situation where they could lack focus, especially if you're getting a visiting team coming into the previously mentioned situation.
7)Home teams in the second game back from a road trip: Look to back teams in this situation, as they are back home, rested, back with families, ect...and will be sharp and ready once all personal affairs are settled from being on the road (example).
8)Look at win or losing streaks for teams, good example is the Mets tonight. Find fundamental reasons for your trends, and look to back or fade teams you can find value with. Go back and look at 7-game (1 week) stretches to see if a team has a higher probability to regress, or possibly snap the losing streaks.
***Well that's really all I I've picked up on so far just from listening....hope I'm on the right track, so I can add these tools to my own analysis. Thanks for all you do and thank you in advance if you get a chance to read this. Best of luck Marco!
This post is one of the nicest compliments I as a Handicapper that also tries to teach with his work could possibly receive. Yes you have been paying attention to many of the things that I look at and use on a daily basis. Remember sports betting is just like life you never know everything always keep your mind open to learn more and to have the ability to adjust as things change. Never stop learning as knowledge is power...
Good Luck let's keep cashing those tickets...
Thank you so much for the reply and everything you do for the sports betting community. It really speaks volumes about your character that you take the time to read over and reply to those who have a passion and love for sports betting. It's truly is humbling to be able to have open dialogue with yourself, and others on this site who have been doing this a long time. I know you don't have to take the time to reply to squares like myself but you do and it's much appreciated. Hopefully someday I can come to Vegas, (like I always say on Twitter), and cross a luncheon with you guys off my bucket list! Look forward to a continued relationship and mutual respect for the industry. Best of luck today!