Don't see much reason to not go back to the well on this one. May give more in the morning but here is the short version
Colorado AT HOME where they are 14-5 against a left handed starter
Colorado is the #2 ranked offense against left handed pitching (with park and league adjustment) and they have a .854 OPS against lefties
Colorado is the #1 ranked home offense by an extremely large margin (even with park and league adjustment) and they have a 1.001 OPS at home
Erlin is 1-2 with an era of 6.00 on the road this season and has a night era of 5.55. It's always nice to pitch in Petco Park, not so much at Coors. He only has a 37% ground ball rate, meaning line drives and fly balls are the majority, which doesn't exactly translate well to Coors field
Jordan Lyles has been the Rockies best pitcher so far and he has a ground ball rate around 55% right now, which is a huge plus at Coors Field. He is 3-0 with a 1.25 era in his 3 home starts. He is controlling both right handed and left handed hitters at the moment. Eventually his numbers will rise, but I'm not sure the Padres are the team to do it.
The Padres are the 30th ranked offense (with adjustments) against right handed pitching and have a .594 OPS
Hopefully this line doesn't shoot down on me like it did yesterday.