A couple didn't finish that way I wanted, but no complaints. Came very close to paying the 'book this week, but a couple of late head-fakes got 'er done. The Association has actually been very good while the pucks have been the Achilles' Heel. We'll have no more of that. Onward and upward we go.....always doing the work. Stack 'em Up!
Philadelphia Phillies (-145) ~ Not a price that I like, but we simply need to look no further than the Mets' 59 total bases off of LHP. Good spot for a Phillies -1.5 (+150) play despite the bullpen. Philly has just hammered lefties (.316 BA). A few Mets with some success facing Cole, but I just don't see it here.
In a nutshell, my formula to determine efficiency is total bases/ABs. The nearer a team is to 50% TB to ABs, the more efficient they are in situational hitting. As an example using LHP, the Phils sit at 112/234/48% while the Mets are 59/186 or less than 32%. FWIW ~ The Top 3 (vs LHP) using my formula are the Rockies (151/292/52%), the Nationals (105/206/51%) and the Tigers (80/164/49%). To give folks an idea of just how badly the Cards struggle facing LHP, they are a measly 50/202/<25%........conversely, although the Rangers are ranked #2 in OBP vs LHP, their 106/250/42% tells me that they are not quite as efficient as they first appear. Oakland is a less than stellar 84/232/36% though, hence the Rangers' play. Have I lost everyone....LOL? In a close match-up, this is often my "go to".
Texas Rangers (-110) ~ Perez's pitch-count (combined with a brutal bullpen) over his last few will keep this a single.
Under 8 (-110) ~ Perez was very tough on the A's last week and little has changed. Expect Kaz to keep 'em in the game. The Under 4 Mini also worth a look. I am thinking about a 4-2 final? Note that Perez's last three starts have all resulted in Rangers' shutouts, including his last two complete game jobs. Although he's hardly been excessive, if he cuts out the walks (reducing his pitch-count) this kid will be brilliant. At greater than +180, I may actually have to look to the dreaded Triple Slam (ML, +RL and Under), although it is not recommended....LOL
Baltimore Orioles (-130) PPD ~ Tough to back the O's bullpen, but if this one goes I expect Baltimore to small-ball Morton to death. He is a road warrior no more....the Orioles Mini is probably the way to go at about the same price.
Cincinnati Reds (-130) ~ Today I will go with the Reds, but pass on the total. It looks like another rain-out, but regardless.....I just don't think the Cubs will score enough for JeffSam (see the Never Expected the Unexpected theory). It may very well come down to the bullpen, so I'll go with the lesser of two evils. I also think the PPD will have benefited Cinci.
I do like the Royals, but won't pay near -140 for Vargas.
**Colorado Rockies (-104) ~ The Snakes are simply unplayable right now. Give the Rox the edge on the hill and at the dish....-1.5 (+155) looks doable.
I very much like the Minnesota Twins (+145) PPD to win this one ~ See Essler's thread......the **Twins RL +1.5 (-125) is a great play, also IMO. Gibson's 0.63 ERA at home and the Twinks' .371 OBP is good enough for me to double-up on. Ahh, yes......the weather.
Miami Marlins (-122) ~ Line is reasonable now. I get Jose (11-0 career at home) AND a team that is 8-0 in their last 8 home games vs a LH starter? Count me in. Now, we just need to avoid Gattis' late inning heroics.
TB Rays/Boston Red Sox Over 9 (+105)
Detroit Tigers/Chicago White Sox Over 8 (-110) ~ I really don't care who is starting with these offenses and these bullpens. Weather is my only concern. Double-edged sword in that it likely means bullpens, but dampens the offense.
Passing on a side here, but note that the Crew are now 7-0 as a road dog. With Holliday and Molina scorching and successful facing Lohse it may be too much to ask of the injury-weakened Brewers' offense here. Despite how well he's pitched lately, I do expect he gets taken deep tonight.....probably a couple of times.
Philadelphia Flyers (-105) ~ Unless the Rangers' PP suddenly fires up, I expect this goes back to the Big Apple.
**Los Angeles Clippers -3 (-110) 1st Half ~ If these Clippers have any pride, I expect they come out smokin' after that last debacle. These guys are supposed to be professionals and despite the controversy surrounding the team there is NO excuse for that performance. They make amends....I am expecting a DD W. **LA Clippers -5.5 (-110). I had considered the Under, but think they may want to run it up.
Some concern with Perez's pitch-count lately, so may switch out the Rangers with the Clippers on another one at 21/1. Not feeling the Texas bullpen much;
Baltimore Orioles (-128) PPD
Miami Marlins (-127)
Minnesota Twins +1½ (-120)
Texas Rangers (-105)
Colorado Rockies (-106)