Coming off a 2-1 record yesterday. Losing our dog pick with the Marlins +132. However we did pick up win with our Cardinals +105 and under 8.5 in the LAA/OAK game -115. Taking our last 14 games to 11-3 +952 units. So lets keep this going today.
Pick #1: LA Dodgers @ SF Giants (-105) o/u 8
Beckett vs. Lincecum
A few of the first things I do when I open up the computer in the mornings (and look at the slate of games) is taking a look at the sportsbook spy. This is the most useful tool for me on pregame.com I find the games that are not so popular with the public, look at the bet % for each line/total, and then look into supporting stats. For one, todays game features 2 pitchers who havent notched wins like they used to a few years ago. Hence 96% at sportsbook spy shows this game being picked for the over. I can see why most people automatically go that rout, with both starting pitchers ERA's sky high to start the year. So here is public perception for the over:
Beckett ERA 9.00 no wins in Last 6 Dodger starts
Lincecum ERA 9.90 no wins this season
So the total sits at 8-squares remember the tough outings and rough starts for both pitchers this year and they put thier dollars on the over. 96% on the spy to be exact. That is pretty high. I do not assume it is this high much anywhere else but the books couldnt possibly put themselves in a situation like this.
So look further and we find that Beckett lifetime at AT&T park is 2-2 with a 3.42 ERA and Lincecum is 4-1 2.55 ERA in his last 7 starts against the Dodgers and 4-1 2.18 ERA with 10 all time matchups against the Dodgers. These numbers, the 4 % on the under, and fading the public is all I need to take the under here. I also dont expect major league pitchers to keep this high ERA output going. It has to stop sometime and supporting information for the right scenario makes sense to me.
Big Green Selection
LA Dodgers @ SF Giants Under 8 -110 to win 2 units
More to come later today and will be listed as *ADDED PLAY*
*ADDED PLAY*
Col Rockies @ SD Padres (-118) o/u 7
SD Padres -118 to win 1 unit
Why is everyone on the Colorado side of this game? They have lost 2 straight, are plagued with injuries to key players, and the Rockies havent seen Robbie Erlin of the Padres starter yet. Erlin just started this past weds vs the Indians, locking a W in the Win column, while striking out 6, walking 1, giving up 1 run, over 6 innings. The Rockies counter with another young gun in Juan Nicasio (1-0 3.75 ERA) who has 5 starts against the Padres with 2 wins. However last year he didnt record a win in 2 starts versus the Padres. So things such as players and personal have changed and we will not take the previous years 2-0 record into consideration here. I like the Padres young gun and the Rockies stepping into somewhat of an unknown. Some pitchers who make a debut against a team do very well, as the team doesnt have much prep time or film to watch what he can do out there.
Take the San Diego Padres today -118 to win 1 unit.
I also might reccomend a small play on the over 7 runs as well. I know the Padres are one of my under teams, but when the public doesnt back them as such, we go the other way. Such as this one with only 9% consensus picked on the over 7 runs.
So lets take that as well. As this will be our 2nd and final total for the day.
Rockies @ Padres Over 7 +105 to win 1.05 units
SourDeez