Re: Mike Shuttlesworth MLB Friday - GOY

Rough night last night, Texas was the deciding game between a profit and loss. CJ Wilson gave up a 3 run bomb and blew the gem that Hunter threw for the Rangers. Finished the day 2-3   -3.6 units.  Don't worry we are going to get it back today.

WhiteSox/Twins

Nick Blackburn comes into this game with a 7-4 record and a stellar 2.94era.  Over his last nine starts Blackburn has an impressive 1.91era.  He had somewhat of a rough start to the year (for him anyway), posting a 4.02era in the opening month of April and has since improved more and more

April:  4.02era
May:   3.08era
June:  2.37era
July:   1.00era (1start)

He is really finding his groove right now. Now add the fact that he is in his home ballpark where is 4-0 in 7 starts with a 2.33era. In fact the Twins are 6-1 in his home starts, with the only loss coming in a game where Blackburn pitched 7 scoreless innings against Seattle only to have the bullpen blow it.

This is nothing new. Blackburn went 8-3 last year at home and ended the season with a  2.96era. He absolutely loves pitching in the Dome. He also peaked in July last year with a 2.46era. I mentioned that Blackburn started slow. Well, he has 4 starts at home since the start of May (had 3 in April)

May   10 Seattle:         7inn    0 ER
May   26 Boston:        7inn    1 ER
June 18 Pittsburg:     9inn    1 ER
July     5 Detroit           9inn    1 ER

He has gone the distance in his last two home starts

I believe the reason we are getting such a reasonable price on this game is the current run the White Sox are on plus the misleading record Danks possesses on the road.  It also doesn't hurt that he has a 19 scoreless inning streak. Danks still has a 3.76era on the year with a 7-6 record. I mentioned the misleading record. Check this out

               Home                        Away
ERA           3.33                           4.21
BA              .216                           .259
OBP           .300                           .312
SLUG         .375                           .384
WHIP        1.151                        1.319

Record         2-4?                           5-2?

Danks also hasn't been as good at night this year posting a 4.48era (1.78 day era). Maybe not much of deal considering the ballpark, but its still there. 

Danks has faced the Twins this year, and got the win 7-4, but that doesn't mean this lineup can't hit him.The Danks win is another reason we are getting this value. He gave up 4 runs in that game.  2 of them were earned but another would have scored regardless of an error that was committed so it would have been 3. The Twins might have won that game if Liriano didn't implode and give up all 7 of those runs in the 4th inning.

Now lets have a little fun with this. Its hard to predict the exact lineup the Twins will throw out there tomorrow, they go with so many variations. I really hope they find a way to get Morales in the lineup at either catcher or DH.  However, Mauer didn't catch yesterday, so it will probably have to be at DH.  It could be a little different, but this is the lineup i would throw out there with their stats vs. Danks. 

CF Span          .167avg (1-6)        .500obp       .167slug       .677ops
SS Harris         .375avg (6-16)      .474obp       .500slug       .974ops
C   Mauer         .500avg (9-18)      .550obp       .500slug     1.050ops
1B Morneau     .333avg (7-21)      .462obp       .857slug     1.383ops
RF Cuddeyer   .500avg (9-18)      .550obp       .500slug     1.050ops
LF Kubel           .400avg (4-10)      .462obp      .800slug      1.262ops
3B Crede        1.000avg (1-1)        .667obp    2.000slug      2.667ops
DH Morales     ------NO AB------
2B  Punto          .077avg (1-13)     .200obp      .277slug        .277ops

Look up one more time. Ok thats good, you see what i see. Almost the entire lineup has hit Danks very well. The only one who struggles is Punto. Span hits .167 against him but a .500obp works just fine for a leadoff hitter. 

This Twins lineup hits a combined .369 (38-103) or if you take the average of the averages you get .419 (obviously a little inflated due to Crede's 1-1 1.000). Morales does not have any AB against Danks, but he is batting .333 (22-33) on the season and .417 against lefties (5-12). Very limited AB so he probably will not be in the lineup tomorrow. I don't think it will make a huge difference though. It may be Young which is ok

On the other side we have Blackburn who has held the probable lineup to a .250avg. He can handle them

The Twins are 22-6 the last 28 times they have faced a left handed starter at home.

The Twins are 10-1 in Blackburns last 11 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. He loves the dome 

We are betting on a team who rarely beats themselves. They hit the ball, score runs, and play good defense. They have the 3rd best fielding% in the majors and the 3rd fewest errors.

We are betting on a team that is top 10 in avg, obp, and, ops. 

We are also backing a top 10 bullpen which has a 2.23era over the last 10 games. 

And we are backing an elite starting pitcher who gets much more dominate in his home ballpark

I think we have a gem here.

Minnesota Twins -120 5 UNIT GOY

Look guys, i know i haven't posted many plays here (although i have been here a while), and its really early to be labeling something a game of the year.

I just couldn't avoid it. Call it whatever the hell you want

I bet every single day like most of you do and this is the biggest wager i have personally made this season. That doesn't mean you risk your whole bankroll on the game, because obviously it could lose. Its my biggest wager, but i will still be alive and kicking tomorrow with plenty of baseball money in my pocket. Don't be stupid

Hope everybody kicks the books ass today 

 cash it Ray, I mean Mike!....GL

Glad to see that you like the pick

I'll also mention that the Twins are 9-1 with Blackburn on the mound after a home loss during his career - with the only loss coming in his Metrodome debut.  After the Yankees sweep - this stat jumps off the page.

SoCalCapper

Glad to see that you like the pick

I'll also mention that the Twins are 9-1 with Blackburn on the mound after a home loss during his career - with the only loss coming in his Metrodome debut.  After the Yankees sweep - this stat jumps off the page.

Add another major reason to back the Twins tonight

Lets Cash This SoCalCapper

I hereby recognize this post for a "Gold Star" per the Pregame Constitution's goal of informing & entertaining our community.

Mike Shuttlesworth - for a big pick with super high level game analysis!

This Gold Star earns you an entry into our next Most Valuable Poster drawing for a chance at $1000 in cash! There's no limit to the number of entries you can earn, so keep up the good work!

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Good Luck, Mike (Still trying to get used to that lol)

I'm on them Twinkies as well

RJ_Bell

I hereby recognize this post for a "Gold Star" per the Pregame Constitution's goal of informing & entertaining our community.

Mike Shuttlesworth - for a big pick with super high level game analysis!

This Gold Star earns you an entry into our next Most Valuable Poster drawing for a chance at $1000 in cash! There's no limit to the number of entries you can earn, so keep up the good work!

 Get them tonight Best of Luck a lot of good solid info there!!!