Re: another way to look at parlays

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another way to look at parlays

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  • ur making three 2 taem parlays

    today my best bet was on st louis -1 1/2 +1.35

    st louis is my top best bet . atlanta, oakland and cws are my next best bets

    iam going to use my 3 bb teams atlanta, oakland and cws to key  three 2 team parlays with the cards.

    iam going to use the opponents for each of my 3 bb teams to save my parlay bet in case any of my 3 bb teams lose

    1) atlanta +77 playing wash +110 

    2) oakland +113 playing clev +75 

    3) cws +122 playing kc +70

    so i will have three 2 team parlays with 

    st louis / atlata

    st louis / oakland

    st louis / cws

    and three 2 team SAVE parlays with

    st louis / wash

    st louis / clev

    st louis / kc

    =============

    st louis / atlanta key parlay

    st louis / wash save parlay

     st lou +135 atlanta +70 = a) 2.99 -1 odds

    st lou +135 wash +110 = b) 3.93 - 1 odds

    u want to make $100

    bet # 1 is ur prime bet) 100 /  2.99 (a) = 33.44 (c).... u have to bet $33.44 (c) to make $100

    bet # 2 is ur save bet) 33.44 (c)  / 3.93 (b) = 8.50 (d).....u have to bet $8.50 (d) to make $33.44 (c) and save bet #1

     if bet #1 (ur prime bet) hits u will win  +$100 and u will lose bet #2 (ur save bet) -$8.50 (d)

    u will win a total of $91.50

    +$100 -$8.50 (d) = $91.50

    if bet #2 wins (ur save bet) u will lose bet #1 (ur prime bet) and break even

    3.93-1 (odds) x 8.50 (d) (save bet) = $33.40 (c) (prime bet)

    u r betting $42 to make $91.50

    betting $42 on the st louos runline at +135 u would make $56.70

    the drawback here is if bet #2 wins u lose bet #1 and break even making nothing whereas that same 42 dollars if bet on the runline alone would get u at least $56.70

    so its a difference of profitting $91.50 as opposed to profitting $56.70 and on the other hand its a difference of making a profit of $56 or just breaking even and making nothing either way ur top best bet has to win   

     

     

     

  • I think the only real way to have success using parlays long-term is to combine the side and total when they are related.  For example when the LA Lakers played Houston in the playoffs in Houston.  The Rockets only chance at winning the game was to keep it low scoring, so a good play would have been Houston either moneyline or on the side parlayed with the under.

  • looks dangerous to me, if St. Louis loses you're fucked
    MLB 2011 Team Totals:(5-7-1) -8.40 units (42%) MLB 2011 Preseason: (2-1-0) +0.45 units (67%) MLB 2010 Team Totals: (39-20-3) +26.85 units (66%) MLB 2010 ML's and O/U's: (6-2) + 5.2 units (75%) Pregame Poll TT Unders: (1-0) +1.0 units (100%)
  • any parlay is dangerous and u lose if any team in any parlay losses, but if your key team in this parlay, st louis, wins, and ur bb team in the 1st half of the parlay loses then instead of losing the entire parlay u automatically break even with the save team in the 2nd half of ur parlay.. in a sense its a 1 team parlay and yes that 1 team has to win and if that key team wins then no materr who loses in the 2 half o ur parlay the worse u can do is break even breakeven 

  • basically all ur doing is buying insurence on ur parlay or better put ur buying insurence on ur $34.50 and the cost for that insurence $8.50.

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