Re: Bookie Bill won't hit 57% in his rookie season selling his wiseguy football info at pregame!

How many times in our lives have we seen guys trying to make money by selling info about which games the wiseguys are heavily invested in?Bookie Bill has NO prior experience doing this.Remember Vegas Runner's rookie season at pregame?The huge difference between a wiseguy & the average bettor is a wiseguy has a monster bankroll to withstand the inevitable extended losing streaks that occur over the course of a calendar year.Wiseguys also usually bet into the best lines.I have been a huge fan of Bookie Bill's twitter updates since he started in early April.Unfortunately it's premature to believe he's going to be a huge success in his rookie season at Pregame without any prior experience in this type of endeavor.Wish all of you that do pay for his info the best of luck this upcoming football season.You are definitely going to need it!

What sports do you guys think would be most profitable fading the public or backing the wise guys?  In my opinion, baseball is the best sport to fade the public, while football is the worst.  The reason for my baseball theory is that the public is usually on large favorites, so each underdog winner really adds up.  I really don't think there's much value though constantly going against public favoritesin football, especially in college football. 

 Taking dogs in general in bases is the most profitable way, IMO.

 However, fading the public in NFL is money!  Not so much for college foots.

 I have yet to see this "fade the public" work over time......the sites show % but not  amt bet on teams........if 50 wiseguys bet 5k and 50  guys on vacation in Vegas bet 100 on team b u have 50/50 (%) but  money is huge on one side

think JD wrote about this before......we know some teams are public teams like NYY and Dallas Cowboys etc so value is diminished,,,,,,,,if u want to fade public then probably best to bet vs NYY every game.......just my amateur opinion

Deliveryman, you have a good point for the most part.  However, I can remember either last season or two seasons ago the oddsmakers actually significantly devalued the Yankees because of a horrible slump they were in.  However, you are correct, usually teams like the Cowboys, Lakers, and Yankees are usually a slightly overvalued.  When those teams are winning though they are significantly overvalued.

 Have you been following Bill on Twitter?  Because I've been following him for months and the guy is MONEY!  He's not just some guy who just walked in off the street.  He's been in the business for a very long time.  The obsession over Bill and some of you guys wanting him to fail is odd....

Evan Altemus

Deliveryman, you have a good point for the most part.  However, I can remember either last season or two seasons ago the oddsmakers actually significantly devalued the Yankees because of a horrible slump they were in.  However, you are correct, usually teams like the Cowboys, Lakers, and Yankees are usually a slightly overvalued.  When those teams are winning though they are significantly overvalued.

agree Evan....and few yrs ago "the public" was killing it in NFL so if u faded u would have lost your ass........public tends to favor the favorites but yr in and yr out it usually falls  55-45 range , so could be 52-48 one yr then 54-46 etc for favs vs dogs thats why just playing dogs will not give u big profit or vice versa...if it was that ez we would all be rich

Bookie Bill hasn't proven himself during any FB or BKB(regular season)that i'm aware of!If my memory serves me correct Vegas Runner struggled like crazy his rookie season at pregame trying to come up with a formula that would work for a majority of his paying clients.I foresee the same exact thing occurring with Bookie Bill.Even a successful pro sports bettor like VR would be smart enough NEVER to guarantee profits on an annual basis in any sport that he previously had success with.That's why i'll be closely WATCHING Bookie Bill's progress at pregame as a paid content provider instead of putting my "balls on the table" like some of you that have already been seduced during his three month twitter rendezvous

deliveryman3

think JD wrote about this before......we know some teams are public teams like NYY and Dallas Cowboys etc so value is diminished,,,,,,,,if u want to fade public then probably best to bet vs NYY every game.......just my amateur opinion

For example, the Yankees last season, won 89-73, with a .549 Win%.

Well, this means that if all their games had moneyline odds equal to 1/0,549, or 1,82, or -122 and if you had risked a $100 USD wager on each and every game with NYY ML -122, and if the regular season ended with an 89-73 W/L record, you would have finished with no gains or losses. But if you played every game that had odds at least 5% better and you managed at least to won 55% of those same games, then you would have a small profit, even if was with the overrated public Yankees.

The problem is that this approach is too simply to be profitable and only works in theory, but it shows in a simple manner how Value really works.

Vegas Runner started in Dec 2007.

He won that month.
He won in 2008.
He is winning in 2009.