Well, headed into Wednesday night we had two tough losses (only way we've lost lately) with the Twins failing to cover the +1.5 in extra innings (they could have stopped at 4-3) and Boston getting the Ortiz blast with two outs. On the heels of the Royals loss last night, deja vu. All three team out-everything'd but scoring. Long season and we're slightly ahead in spite of ourselves, and sorry the free one on Texas fell for you guys.
We've only made one subscriber play, and obviously missed great number(s) in that AZ total (hope some of you got down early) and I am only playing one more, small.
Boston Red Sox -105
Had some planned surgery this morning and took a little longer to "wake up" than I thought. Trying to get back to most of my clients, who deserved better than yesterday. That's the way we do business, but not all would agree :)
Headed into Wednesday we'd hit 85% of our GOW's and we've isolated on for Thursday already.
Dave's NL GOW or Discounted Long Term Packages
Pirates-Cubs: I suppose if I were to ever bet on the Cubs it would be against a RHP and if I were ever to fade the Pirates it would be against a LHP. Wood is not a bad #4 starter, and he's had reasonable success against the Pirates mano-a-mano. Cole has been very good to us, and is a major ground-ball pitcher, but the Cubs have seen him. Cross-wind with some moisture in Wrigley, and hoping the total comes out at 8 or so so I can take a hard look at the under, and perhaps the dead-dog Cubs.
Miami-Washington: As I type the Fish are already ahead of the -200 Zimmerman, probably at least making some parlay people nervous. Strasburg's body language wasn't very good last game when a teammate made an error, costing a run, so aside from the fact that he's been hit a little, I have to wonder if there isn't something else going on in the clubhouse. With that in mind I am not laying that price, nor the RL for that matter. I don't trust a RHP Koehler against the Nats, either, so perhaps I could get behind the over, since the wind may be blowing straight out. Day game, so we need linueps and bullpen usage for Wednesday.
Brewers-Phillies: The Brewers are the fashionable team these days, but I just watched a balk and an error and they gave up the early lead they had on two hits. Sounds like a few other teams I know. If they continue to play sloppy I may have to look at Lee as a short favorite, although my original thought was to back Estrada. However, neither team has a bullpen, and with the way Wednesday's game is starting they may go through some arms. Another clear night tomorrow with a helping breeze, so at 7.5 we might have to take a shot at the over. Estrada is feast or famine, but Utley and Howard have hit him in limited exposure.
Atlanta-Mets: Going into Wednesday I had thought I would take Wheeler and then take Hale on Thursday. But, Mejia is a ground ball pitcher that most of the Braves haven't seen, and honestly that's the type that give the free swinging Atlanta team trouble. Hale IS a strikeout pitcher that doesn't walk many, so to me the choices here are the Mets RL and/or the under. It will probably all depend on what, if any, bullpen Atlanta has to use Wednesday.
Arizona-San Fran: I've completely lost faith in Vogelsong so it would be easy to look to back Delgado here, even easier if Arizona had a bullpen. Delgado was torched in Coors Field, but has had some success against most of the Giants, in particular Buster, which always matters. Vogelsong HAS been hit pretty hard by the D-Backs, so without too much over-thinking here I am leaning Arizona and/or over, again, dependent on bullpen use later on Wednesday.
Minnesota-Oakland: I cannot touch the Twins after what they did to me today, which means we should! They out hit the A's and did everything but win, recovering from a 0-4 deficit in the first when Hughes couldn't find the plate. Straily can be tough, but he's not nearly as effective away from Oakland'd big park. But, that would mean backing Pelfrey, who is only 30 but seems like he's been in the league 15 years. He did pitch reasonably well against the Indians, but of course the pen came crashing down. No pen left on either side, so first team to chase the starter may win. Wind howling out, so it has to go over, no? Day game - lineups.
Boston-New York: It would be just like the Red Sox to build on the Ortiz momentum (damn it) and for Clay to shut the Yankees down. But, how well did Buccholz fare against the Brewers, and can he possibly put up the numbers he did last season. Both Yankees that have done anything with him won't be in the lineup, so I have to lean Boston here. It almost doesn't matter about Pineda. Even if he were back to 100% of whatever he was, I doubt he's pitched against Boston in Yankee Stadium, which is a different animal. A pretty stiff cross-wind expected to left, which may negate some of the short RF porch, so perhaps this stays under as well.
Houston-Toronto: I am simply not laying -215 on the Blue Jays, and said that about Morrow on Wednesday. Parlay or no parlay. That's a complete joke, even if the Jays rout. All the Astros have seen him a couple of times and I refuse to play him in a dome without wind to help the knuckle ball. Wrong as it may be, I do have some rules. With that in mind, the Jays should fare better against the LHP Kuechel, so if the lineups are all the "A" team, at 8.5 I could stomach the over simply because Houston has no bullpen.
Cleveland-Chicago: Everyone lines up to bet on Salazar. He was hit pretty hard by the Twins, and the Indians come of a double header and now they're road favorites. I don't think so, and I shall look hard at Danks and the White Sox, who if nothing else have been hitting. They've seen Danny Salazar a couple of times, so there won't be any surprises. Only issue here is the first game back and travel for the White Sox, who gave up ten runs to the Rockies. Total of 8 may be doable, but not as warm and not a huge wind help, but I do think it closes at 8.5 eventually. After the DH this is also a wait-for-lineups type game.