Re: Value Betting: TRUE or FALSE? A question for Pregame Pros Handicappers and alike.

Evan Altemus

I say TRUE and here's why.� If team X has a power rating of let's say 84 and team Y has a power rating of 80, then team X should be favored by 4 points on a neutral field/court against team Y.� Let's say team X is playing team Y at home, and after home court/field advantage is factored in, if team X is favored by much more than they should be, then the value is on team Y.�

Now just because team Y has value doesn't mean that they are the correct selection, depending on your handicapping style.� For example, most of the time the Yankees are too high of a favorite at home, but that doesn't mean that I will always take their opponent.� It's not good to blindly take teams just because they have value.

I agree with you Evan, and I will use this extreme example to make my point. If Boston played the Yankees in New York and the line was Boston -400 Yankees +320 and Lester was pitching for Boston and CC was pitching for the Yankees, im sure everybody on this forum will agree that the Yankees +320 at home is the better "value" play. But it is irrelevant if they dont win. I agree that if you could bet that situation 1000 times you will make money betting New York each time, but in the 1 time they play if your team doesnt win your "value" play is irrelevant.

I have a buddy who calls me 4 or 5 times a week and claims that he finds "errors" in lines. I always tell him "you dont get anything for finding errors in lines - you only cash tickets when you pick winners"

I hereby recognize this post for a "Gold Star" per the Pregame Constitution's goal of informing & entertaining our community.

Dunadan - Posting a question that led to a good discussion

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Dunadan

Today I have an easy question to do. A True or False one. Here it goes:


Value Betting is defined by finding the line (moneyline, run line, or totals) with more probability to win on a game. True or False?


Please reply if the statement above is True or False for you and if you want to, justify your answer.

 

Many thanks in advance.

 

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