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Andre Gomes MLB 08/30 Thursday (267-212 L479 MLB PLAYS (56%!!!) +24.04un) - WNBA CARD + 2 MLB FREE PLAYS ADDED!

andre gomes

Joined: 07/03/2007

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Posted

on Thu, Aug 30 2012 9:41 AM

MLB 2012 1-2-3 MM RECORD: 341-316-11 ATS | -21.26units

MLB 2012 3-4-5 MM RECORD: 341-316-11 ATS | -12.13units

WNBA 2012 1-2-3 MM RECORD: 43-43-1 ATS | -4.36units

WNBA 2012 3-4-5 MM RECORD: 43-43-1 ATS | -11.90units

Daily Message:

On the MLB, we are coming from a 3-5 day, but I believe we will continue to turn things around today and start setting the pace for a great MLB season! On the other hand, there were no games on the WNBA yesterday.

So, for today, we have 11 games on the MLB, with five games being played in the afternoon, with the remaining games being played at night. There are also 5 games on the WNBA today. Stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of plays during the day!

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andre gomes

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Posted

on Thu, Aug 30 2012 9:42 AM

Yesterday's Recap:

MLB - 917 Toronto Blue Jays @ 918 New York Yankees

(Starting Pitchers: J. Happ vs C. Sabathia)

Looking at Sabathia's level and Happ's current form, I believe he will have a pitchers duel on this contest, similar to Happ's start in Detroit last week against Verlander. In that game, he had his best performance since joining Toronto, with just one run allowed on four hits in 7.1 IP. He is definitely very well right now, with just two runs allowed on six hitting in 13.1 IP over his last two starts. He had three quality starts out of four games for Toronto and he has always faced a top team: Tampa Bay, NY Yankees, Texas and Detroit, with FIP numbers of 2.41, 0.93 and 1.48 in those three excellent outings. He will now once again face the Yankees today, who have been having some offensive issues lately, mostly caused due to Teixeira and A-Rod being out. Therefore, I believe the in-form Happ will have a good outing today and limit the Yankees offense in this game.

Sabathia will start for the Yankees and he is coming from a great comeback game from injury in Cleveland, where he allowed just one run and four hits in 7.1 IP, with a 1.23 ERA, 3.23 FIP and 2.06 xFIP. He has always been very successful against the Blue Jays and with Toronto's current poor offense, I believe Sabathia will have an easy outing today.

With Sabathia dominating the Blue Jays and with Happ being in good form, ready to have another quality outing today, I believe this game will be a low scoring contest like it was yesterday and therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 917/918 Under 8.5 (w/ J. Happ & C. Sabathia) @ -120 / 1.83 on Bookmaker

Final Score: Toronto 8 NY Yankees 5

MLB - 903 Cincinnati Reds @ 904 Arizona Diamondbacks

(Starting Pitchers: M. Latos vs P. Corbin)

NOTE: No writeup for this Play *EARLY GAME*

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 904 Arizona Diamondbacks ML (w/ P. Corbin) @ +108 / 2.08 on Betonline

Final Score: Cincinnati 6 Arizona 2

MLB - 905 Atlanta Braves @ 906 San Diego Padres

(Starting Pitchers: T. Hanson vs E. Stults)

The Braves will start Hanson today and he is coming from a start in San Francisco, where he allowed five runs and seven hits in 4.1 IP, with a 8.31 ERA, 3.32 FIP and 5.36 xFIP. He has struggled on his two starts since his comebacks and he keeps struggling in going deep in the games plus the fact that he keeps walking batters frequently. His best pitch is the slider, but he isn't being able to throw it lately with his normal speed and so, this is another reason why he is struggling lately. The Padres' roster is hitting .262 BA and .868 OPS against him in 65 AB's, so it seems likely that San Diego will be able to cause some damage on him today.

San Diego will start Stults and he is coming from a shutout in Arizona, where he allowed just three hits in seven innings. He has been alternating some good starts with some terrible ones lately, as the runs allowed on his last six starts shows (0, 5, 1, 0, 3 and 4 ER allowed). He has defeated Atlanta on the road earlier on this month with just one run and five hits allowed in 7.2 IP, however I don't believe he will be able to dominate the Braves once again today. First of all, Atlanta was on a terrible spot for that game, as they were coming from a SNB game in NY against the Mets in the previous night. The surprise effect of facing him for the first time in three years is also gone for today, therefore I expect Atlanta to get revenge over the inconsistent Stults today and make some damage on the Padres' SP for the day.

With both teams sending two starting pitchers with inconsistent results to the mount today, I don't believe they will be able to have similar performances to the other starting pitchers on this series that had quality outings. I expect both SP's to struggle at least a bit today and with both teams being able to score a decent number of runs in here. With the totals line being set so low, I believe we have enough value to take the Over in here and that's what I'm going to do. Take the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 905/906 Over 7 (w/ T. Hanson & E. Stults) @ -120 / 1.83 on 5Dimes

Final Score: Atlanta 2 San Diego 8

MLB - 911 Washington Nationals @ 912 Miami Marlins

(Starting Pitchers: R. Detwiler vs J. Turner)

Washington is now struggling with five losses in a row and to try to end their losing streak, they will start Detwilder who is coming from an outing against Atlanta, where he allowed just two runs and seven hits in 5.1 innings, with a 3.38 ERA, 2.16 FIP and 2.98 xFIP. Prior to that start, he was already looking to be in good form, as he had just allowed a total of nine earned runs on his last 24.2 IP. So, against a lowly offense like the Marlins, I believe Detwiler will have a good outing tonight.

Turner will have his second start for Miami, after allowing three runs in six innings against Arizona on his debut for Miami. His debut was very solid and he is a top prospect, so we can expect good things from him. He wasn't being well used in Detroit, but he looked much better on his Marlins debut with 4.50 ERA, 3.59 FIP and 2.65 xIP on his outing against the Dbacks. This is a good spot for him, as the Nationals are struggling on their hitting and they've never faced him before, so I believe Turner will have another quality outing tonight.

With both starting pitchers having the right conditions to have a good outing tonight, I expect this game to be a low scoring game and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 911/912 Under 8 (w/ R. Detwiler & J. Turner) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Final Score: Washington 8 Miami 4

MLB - 913 Milwaukee Brewers @ 914 Chicago Cubs

(Starting Pitchers: M. Fiers vs J. Samardzija)

Milwaukee will start Fiers tonight and he is coming from a win in Pittsburgh, where he equaled his season high of 10 strikeouts, while allowing just three runs and five hits in 6.2 IP. It was a good bounce back from him after two poor outings in a row. Now against the Cubs, I believe Fiers will have another quality outing, as this will be the first time he will face them and therefore he will have a surprise factor helping him plus the Cubs offense is non-existent right now, with .650 OPS in August (#25). Fiers is a flyball pitcher, he will have the wind helping him, so no reason for him not to have a good outing tonight.

The Cubs will start Samardzija and he is coming from a seven inning outing against Colorado, where he allowed three runs (two earned), while striking out seven batters. He has been very solid lately and he is very dominant against RH batters, as his 3.23 FIP and 2.97 xFIP shows. Considering the fact that Milwaukee's lineup is full of RH batters, with Aoki being the only LH, Samardzija will have a good matchup tonight to have another quality outing in here. This favorable matchup was confirmed back in May, when him dominated the Brewers on the road, with just one earned run and three hits allowed in five innings.

I believe both starting pitchers have the necessary conditions to have quality outings and make this a low scoring affair and therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 913/914 Under 7.5 (w/ M. Fiers & J. Samardzija) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

Final Score: Milwaukee 3 Chicago Cubs 1

MLB - 923 Tampa Bay Rays @ 924 Texas Rangers

(Starting Pitchers: A. Cobb vs M. Harrison)

The Rays will be starting Cobb tonight and he is coming from his first shutout of his career against Oakland, where he allowed just four hits, while having eight strikeouts. Barring a terrible start in LA against the Angels, Cobb has been doing a good job lately, dominating Oakland twice, Seattle and Toronto in four of his last five starts. He has a 3.03 ERA, 3.37 FIP and 3.44 xFIP in August

and he also did a good earlier on the season against Texas, so I believe he will once again have a good outing tonight.

Texas will start Harrison and he is coming from two wins in a row, where he allowed just a combined of two runs and four hits in 16 innings. He has been very good lately, however I believe he will struggle tonight, as he is coming to this game with just 4 days rest and 118 pitches thrown on his last outing against the Twins. Harrison has also only faced struggling lineups lately, as Toronto is #30 in the current month in OPS with .609, while Minnesota is #23 with .672, so his good form might be a bit overrated. He generally struggles against Tampa Bay, with the Rays' roster hitting .333 BA and .892 OPS against him in 63 AB's and already in the current season, he has allowed fourteen hits and seven runs to Tampa Bay.

Even though Texas has some edge over Tampa Bay in terms of hitting, the truth is that Tampa Bay will have an edge in here in terms of starting pitching and especially bullpen. I don't think Texas should be such a clear favorite for this contest and therefore, I'll be taking the Rays tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 923 Tampa Bay Rays ML (w/ A. Cobb) @ +140 / 2.40 on Betonline

Final Score: Tampa Bay 8 Texas 4

MLB - 925 Detroit Tigers @ 926 Kansas City Royals

(Starting Pitchers: A. Sanchez vs B. Chen)

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

After yesterday's high scoring game, Detroit will start Sanchez who is coming from best outing since he joined Detroit, where he allowed two runs and five hits in 6.2 innings in a game against Toronto. He had some excellent numbers in that outing with 1.35 ERA, 2.19 FIP and 4.18 xFIP and his fastball was much better on that game than it was on his previous outings. With just two hitters from the Royals having previously faced Sanchez before, I believe he will be able to surprise the Royals lineup today and have another good outing tonight.

On the other hand, Kansas City will start Chen, who rolled his ankle last Monday before his team's game. He is coming from a decent outing against Boston, where he allowed three runs in six innings. However, he is 4-5 with a 6.10 ERA in 15 games against Detroit and he has lost both his starts against the Tigers this season. With Detroit hitting .298 BA and .935 OPS in 161 AB's against Chen, I believe they will pound him once again tonight, especially when he isn't at 100% physically and he had just 4 days rest prior to this outing.

I believe Detroit will have a clear SP edge tonight and with them hitting at least as well as the Royals right now, I believe the Tigers will have an easy win tonight and therefore, I'll be taking them in here in a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 925 Detroit Tigers ML (w/ A. Sanchez) @ -128 / 1.78 on Betonline

Final Score: Detroit 0 Kansas City 1

MLB - 927 Seattle Mariners @ 928 Minnesota Twins

(Starting Pitchers: J. Vargas vs S. Deduno)

Deduno is in my opinion one of the worst pitchers currently on a starting rotation in the league, so I'll be fading him one more time tonight. He is coming from a beating in Texas, where he allowed seven runs and eleven hits in just five innings. He had also lost his previous start in Seattle, where he gave up two runs and five hits. His command issues are huge and he has walked 37 batters, while just striking out 30 in 51 innings!

With Deduno struggling with his command and with Seattle now facing him for the second time, I expect the Mariners to take advantage over the experience of having faced him two weeks ago and pound him big time tonight. Deduno had a bunch of lucky outings in a row, but now that he has started to regress, he'll keep being pounded in every game. Therefore, I'll be taking Seattle to go Over their team total tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 927 Seattle Mariners Team Total Over 4 (w/ S. Deduno) @ -129 / 1.775 on Pinnacle

Final Score: Seattle 0 Minnesota 10

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Posted

on Thu, Aug 30 2012 9:43 AM

TODAY'S MLB EARLY GAMES FREE PREMIUM PLAYS:

MLB - 951 New York Mets @ 952 Philadelphia Phillies

(Starting Pitchers: J. Niese vs K. Kendrick)

The Mets will start Niese today and he is coming from a loss against Houston, but where he pitched well once again with just three earned runs in seven innings. He has been solid lately with 4.39 FIP/3.37 xFIP, 1.19 FIP/2.19 xFIP and 3.97 FIP/4.00 xFIP on his last three starts. He is posting a 2.29 ERA, .212 BA, 3.35 FIP and 3.54 xFIP in August, so he is really having superb numbers lately. He also has good numbers against Philadelphia, where he has just allowed 1, 2, 4 and 0 runs on four outings against the Phillies. He is just allowing the Phillies' roster to hit .244 BA and .690 OPS in 156 AB's, so I believe he will have a good outing today, especially when the two guys who better hit against him (Polanco 11-32 and Ruiz 6-17) will be out of today's game.

Philadelphia will start Kendrick and he is also pitching well lately, with back to back shutouts and on his last start, he allowed just two runs but had to throw 115 pitches in 6.2IP. He struggled a bit with 2.70 ERA, 5.50 FIP and 4.87 xFIP, so I believe the Mets who are now confident with 4-0 on his last four games should be able to put Kendrick in some trouble today.

I believe the Mets will have a SP edge today and with the Mets being now more confident, I believe they will be able to hit well today as well. Therefore, I see value on the Mets today and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 951 New York Mets ML (w/ J. Niese) @ -105 / 1.95 on Bookmaker

MLB - 965 Seattle Mariners @ 966 Minnesota Twins

(Starting Pitchers: B. Beaven vs B. Duensing)

Seattle will start Beaven today, who is coming from a loss in Chicago against the White Sox, where they allowed four runs and seven hits in five innings. His outing was terrible with 7.20 ERA, 7.30 FIP and 7.64 xFIP and from his last five starts, only once he didn't allowed at least three runs. He has a 5.30 FIP and 4.61 xFIP in August and today against the Twins, who have recuperated their offensive feeling, I believe Beaven is into another struggling outing today.

Minnesota will start Duensing, who is coming from a poor outing, where he allowed nine runs and twn hits in Texas. He had that bad outing, but he had been in good form lately with five starts in a row with a FIP lower than 5.00! I believe he will bounce back today, as when Texas' lineup is red hot, they are unstoppable and Seattle's offense is struggling right now.

I believe the Twins have both SP and hitting edges today and so, I expect them to have another comfortable win over Seattle today. Therefore, I'll be taking the Twins in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 966 Minnesota Twins ML (w/ B. Duensing) @ -136 / 1.74 on 5Dimes

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andre gomes

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Posted

on Thu, Aug 30 2012 3:45 PM

NOTE: Tonight's MLB Package is now fully uploaded on my Pros Page: 3 Plays for tonight!

Good luck! Yes

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andre gomes

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Posted

on Thu, Aug 30 2012 3:46 PM

TONIGHT'S WNBA CARD:

WNBA - 601 Indiana Fever @ 602 New York Liberty

Projected line: 154 points

Since the Olympic Break, the Liberty have been playing much better and with their healthy backcourt plus Cappie Pondexter, they have received an offensive boost since the break, with 79, 74, 77 and 89 points scored. Then, they had a series of back to backs where they fulminated, especially on their last back to back game when they finished a road trip in a game in Seattle, where they scored 9 points in the 1st quarter. However, they had 3 days off to prepare this game and so, they should get back to the offensive level they showed previously to this series of games played on a bad spot.

Indiana has been also playing well since the break, with just a loss in LA against the Sparks. The Fever continues to play with an undersized lineup and therefore, they are playing with four shooters on the floor and thanks to that, they have been shooting greatly from the 3pts line, with 52-122 (45%) 3pts since the break! They looked good on defense on their last three games with 93.8, 92.9 and 98.3 defensive rates, however they faced in those games Phoenix without Taurasi, Washington and Seattle without Jackson.

I believe the Liberty will have a good edge on the inside, while Indiana will pound New York from the outside with their red hot shooting. This should result in a good offensive game played in a mid-pace, with both teams being able to score a good number of points tonight. With my projections giving me a totals line of 154 points for this contest, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 601/602 Over 149.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

WNBA - 603 Washington Mystics @ 604 Atlanta Dream

Projected line: Atlanta by 14 points

This is a rematch from last Friday's game, where Atlanta defeated Washington on the road by 81-69 and without Angel McCoughtry, who is also questionable for tonight due to a team suspension. The Mystics keep struggling on offense and their best player is Crystal Langhorne, who will have a tough matchup against Erika De Souza and couldn't avoid a clear loss of her team last Friday, even though she had a great game with 7-13 FG 17pts and 10reb. Washington is now struggling on rebounding by grabbing 45.6, 49.0, 44.9, 47.2, 48.3 and 46.3% of the boards on their last six games. Without winning the rebounding battle, Washington lacks the talent to stay competitive, especially with their high number of turnovers: 19, 19, 18, 13, 18 and 16 turnovers on their last six games.

After Atlanta's shocking loss to Tulsa two days ago, I expect them to bounce back tonight and crush Washington once again. Therefore, I'll be taking the Dream in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 604 Atlanta Dream (-9,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

WNBA - 605 Connecticut Sun @ 606 San Antonio Silver Stars

Projected line: 155 points

This isn't a good spot for San Antonio, who is coming from an OT game in Minnesota two nights ago. On the other hand, Connecticut is also on a poor spot, as they played on Sunday, Tuesday and now (Thursday). The Sun is coming from a home-home series against Chicago, where Tina Charles dominated with Sylvia Fowles out due to personal reasons. Connecticut lost another player, this time it was Mistie Mims who pulled a muscle in her quad and she will join Asjha Jones in the injury list for a week. Connecticut's offense has been struggling without Jones, with 90.2, 101.9, 97.7, 93.4 and 109.4 offensive rates on their last five games, with an average of 98.5, very far from their average of 105.9! On the other side, their defense has been on a decent level and with San Antonio being on a poor spot tonight, I expect Connecticut to be able to have an okay defensive performance.

With Connecticut missing Jones and with both teams being on a poor spot, I believe this game won't have a good offensive efficiency from neither team, which combined with a relatively slow pace (San Antonio is playing much slower now than usual) gave me a totals projection of 155 points, low enough for me to take the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 605/606 Under 160 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

WNBA - 609 Phoenix Mercury @ 610 Seattle Storm

Projected line: 158 points

Seattle is now healthy again, with Lauren Jackson and Ann Wauters back, so the Storm have their good depth back, after some depth issues due to a lot of injuries. On the other hand, Taurasi is also back on Phoenix's lineup and she's almost the whole offense of the Mercury. Therefore, this game won't have nothing to do with the game they played just after the Olympic break, where Seattle was missing Jackson, Wauters and Thompson, while Taurasi was out for Phoenix.

Phoenix plays on a faster pace with Taurasi on court and they are definitely a good offensive team with their star on court. On the other hand, Seattle has now Sue Bird back at 100% after a stomach problem plus Lauren Jackson and the rest of the frontcourt players, so they should really crush Phoenix down low. I expect a fast paced game in here, with Seattle crushing the terrible defense of the Mercury, while Phoenix should be able to have a decent offensive game as well, with Taurasi leading the way. I have a 158 points projection for this game and therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 609/610 Over 152,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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