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2-3-1 overall last night, but I did go 2-0-1 in my top plays, so it was a success, but i'm still looking for an overall good day today. I have writeups for today's plays, but will not have them for the weekend. 

TOP PLAYS

4 UNIT PLAY

Detroit/ Angels Over 9: Angels starter, Zach Greinke, has struggled since his return to the AL, as he has a 6.19 ERA overall and a 7.20 ERA in his last 4 starts. He has allowed 4 ER's or more in each of his last 4 starts and those starts have seen at least 11 runs scored. Tonight Zach will be facing a Tigers team that had some scoring problems vs the Jays, but they still have averaged 4.9 rpg at home and 5.4 rp/ 9 innings off of righties at Comerica. The Angels will be missing Pujols again, but they still have plenty of others that can step in and produce. Trout, Trumbo and company were without Pujols last night and they still put up 14 runs in Boston. The Angels come in averaging 5.3 rpg on the road and should have a good chance of hitting at least that mark vs Detroit'd Rick Porcello, who has struggled of late. Rick has a 5.11 ERA in his last 7 starts overall and he has a 4.62 ERA at home on the year. His home starts this year have averaged 9.5 rpg, while his night starts have put up 10.5 rpg. Rick also has a  6.29 ERA in 6 starts vs the Halos, despite a 3-1 mark. Those 6 starts hace all hit at least 11 runs. This one should hit DD's with ease.   

3 UNIT PLAYS

St Louis/ Cincinnati Over 8: Mat Latos have pitched very well for the Reds of late, but he will be facing a hot St Louis offense tonight. St Louis has scored 32 runs in their last 5 games and they have averaged 6.36 rpg in Lance's 14 road starts this year. St Louis is also a team that Mat has had trouble with, posting a 9.75 ERA in 5 career starts vs them and in those 5 starts he has allowed 7 ER"s or more in 3 of those. Lance Lynn comes in struggling right now as he has a 6.49 ERA in his last 5 starts. Lance has a 3.98 ERA on the road and those starts have averaged 10.93 rpg. The Reds have a good offense at home, where they average 4.7 rpg overall and 4.4 rpg for Mat at home. With the way the Cards give great run support to Lance and with the way the Reds score at home, I just don't see how these team don't hit at least 4 runs each. 

POWER ANGLE PLAY

Texas -1.5 (-120) over Minnesota: Gotta love the Rangers here. The Rangers have a a 6 game lead over the A's and an 8.5 game lead of the Halos and with LA in Detroit and Oakland in Tampa they know that they can't really widen the gap between those teams, by beating up on the lowly Twins. The Rangers beat the Twins 10-6 last night and in their last 4 wins they have outscored their opponents by 6.5 rpg. The Rangers have scored 8.2 rpg in their last 5 games and 5.7 rpg in their last 10 games. Tonight they face Sam Deduno, who has not pitched that badly for the Twins, but teams may be figuring him out as he has a 4.76 ERA in his last 3 starts. He also doesn't have an advantage over the Rangers as they faced him in his first career start and put up 3 ER's on 6 hits and 3 walks in 5.1 innings vs him. The Twins come in struggling on offense as they have averaged just 3.5 rpg in their last 10 games and 2.3 rp/ 9 off of lefties over that stretch. Matt Harrison has been very good for the Rangers this year, but he has really been good at night posting a 2.29 ERA and in his last 3 starts vs the Twins he has allowed just 1 ER in each start. Now let's look at the final nail in the coffin for this play. The Rangers average 6.3 rp/ 9 innings off of righties at home, while the Twins average just 3.5 rp/ 9 innings off of lefties on the road. Look for the Rangers to win by 4+ here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Since 2010 Texas is 17-4 SU and 15-6 vs the RL off a win in which they allowed at least 5 walks and came back from a deficit. Texas has outscored their opponents by 3.5 rpg in this situation. 

Tampa Bay/ Oakland Under 7: (Added) I know that the OU is 12-3-1 in the last 16 meetings, but we also note that the OU is 55-20-4 in Tampa's last 79 home games vs a team with a losing road record. Jarod Parker has struggled on the road with a 5.11 ERA, but Tamps is not a great hitting team and they only average 3.8 rpg in their own park this year. Matt Moore has been very solid since the break, posting a 1.63 ERA in 7 starts and he hasn't allowed more than 2 ER's in any of those starts. Matt has allowed just 2 HR's in his last 9 starts and both came in his last start vs the Halo's. The A's do score 4.3 rpg on the road, but have been struggling offensively overall, averaging just 3.6 rpg in their last 5 and they were shutout last night. Behind these two starters we have a couple of very hot pens, as the A's have a 1.88 ERA in their last 10 games, while Tampa's pen has a ridiculous ERA of 0.38 in their last 10 games. Just don't see how this game reaches 7 runs.  

OTHER PLAYS

2 UNIT PLAYS

SAN FRANCISCO -120 over Atlanta

CHICAGO -178 over Seattle

LA Dodgers/ Miami Over 7 (Added)

1 UNIT PLAYS

Milwaukee -105 over PITTSBURGH

CHICAGO -150 over Colorado

2 POWER ANGLES FOR TODAY (45-23 +15.14 UNITS)

Since 2008 the Reds are 17-3 at home vs a divisional opponent when they are off a 1 run loss. Play on Cincinnati -122 over St Louis.

Since 2007 the Angels are 11-0 when they are off a game in which they had at least 45 at bats. Play on LA Angels -103 over Detroit.