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The Reds will be starting Leake today, who is coming from his second complete game of the season (and career by the way), in a game where he allowed just one earned run and four hits, while throwing 111 pitches. He had a formidable month of June with a 2.55 ERA, but then he started struggling in July by posting a 5.46 ERA and even though he has just a 3.43 ERA in August, he has just started three games this month and he had only two good performances against the lowly Cubs and Mets, while in the other game against Pittsburgh, he was average at best with four earned runs allowed in 6IP. He had just 4 days rest for this contest and looking at the fact the Phillies' roster has a .298 BA and .787 OPS against him in 47 AB, I believe Leake is going to have a letdown today and he'll struggle on this contest.

On the other hand, Philadelphia will start Halladay, who is coming from a decent yet not very impressive performance in Miami, where he allowed 3 runs in 7.0 IP. Still, he struck out seven batters in that game and walked just one, putting his K/BB ratio in 27/3 over his last four starts. He didn't look very comfortable in that outing against the Marlins, yet he wasn't crushed and that's what shows me that Halladay is now close to his best level, with a high number of strikeouts and by going deep on his outings. The Reds' roster (minus the injured Votto) are just .232 BA against Halladay and looking at the fact Cincinnati is a much better hitting team against LH pitchers makes me believe that Halladay is going to have a good outing tonight.

I believe there's a clear SP edge in favor of Philadelphia on this contest and even though Cincinnati is 8-2 on their last 10 games, they are coming from three series against the Cubs (twice) and the Mets, so I believe their current winning streak means very little for this contest. The Phillies ended their previous series against Milwaukee hitting well and with Halladay controlling the Reds' batters and with Leake on a letdown spot, I expect Philadelphia to have a comfortable win tonight and so, I'll take them in here.

On the first game of this series, the Cubs will start Germano, who is coming from some solid numbers on his first four outings with the Cubs uniform. He allowed 2, 4, 2 and 2 runs against PIT, @LAD, CIN and HOU respectively, with a 3.19 ERA, 3.38 FIP and 4.17 FIP. These are indeed some solid numbers, however the Brewers' great offense at home will be a very tough matchup for him and I don't expect him to handle such tough game in good fashion today.  

On the other hand, Rogers will start for Milwaukee and he has been quite unlucky lately, as even though he has a 4.94 ERA on his last four starts, he has a 3.60 FIP and 3.14 xFIP over this stretch, with just 5, 1, 5 and 2 earned runs allowed. Considering the fact that he is a RH pitcher and the Cubs struggle against RH pitchers (#28 in the league) plus Rogers handles very well RH hitters (.191 BA and 2.34 FIP, with the Cubs having just three LH hitters on the lineup and only DeJesus is in good form), I believe the Cubs will have a tough time against Rogers tonight.

I believe there isn't a clear SP edge on this contest for either team, however the Brewers have clearly a much better offense than the Cubs (.737 OPS in August vs .659 from the Cubs), so I expect Milwaukee to get a comfortable home win tonight and therefore, I'll take them in here.