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Thread Starter Andre Gomes MLB 08/17 Friday (211-160 L371 MLB PLAYS (57%!!!) +24.39un) - FREE PLAY + WNBA CARD ADDED!!!
andre gomes
Joined: 07/03/2007
Posts: 3759
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MLB 2012 1-2-3 MM RECORD: 285-262-7 ATS | -11.78units

MLB 2012 3-4-5 MM RECORD: 285-262-7 ATS | -18.33units

WNBA 2012 1-2-3 MM RECORD: 40-38-1 ATS | -0.76units

WNBA 2012 3-4-5 MM RECORD: 40-38-1 ATS | -3.30units

Daily Message:


On the MLB, we are coming from a great 6-2 day and I believe we will continue to turn things around today and start setting the pace for a great MLB season! On the other hand, we are coming from a 1-2 night on the WNBA.

So, for today, we have 15 games on the MLB, with all games being played at night. There are also 3 WNBA games tonight. Stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of plays during the day!

NOTE: Tonight's package is already added on my Pros Page! One Play Added for now! Keep checking this thread for further info on tonight's games!

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andre gomes
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TONIGHT'S FREE PREMIUM PLAY:

MLB - 903 Chicago Cubs @ 904 Cincinnati Reds


(Starting Pitchers: T. Wood vs B. Arroyo)


The Reds are coming from a home loss against the Mets, where their batters were completely dominated by rookie SP Harvey. They will start this series by facing SP Wood, who is in fact a former player of the Reds. He is 0-5 since the All-Star break, even though he has just allowed five runs and thirteen hits in 18 innings over his last three starts. Wood's last outing was also against Cincinnati and in a pitching duel against Arroyo. He had a good performance, but the Cubs bullpen blew a 2-1 lead after he left the game. Now in a rematch this time in Cincinnati, on a much hitter-friendly park than the Wrigley Field, I believe Wood will have a lot more problems in handling the Reds offense. Wood is a flyball pitcher and with the wind helping the hitters tonight, the Cubs' SP will be in big danger in the park that is the second park seeing more homeruns in the league this season. He is terrible against RH bitters (.247 BA, .500 SLG, 5.86 FIP and 5.10 xFIP) and the Reds know that, as they will use a lineup with eight RH batters! Therefore, this should really be very tough night for Wood.

Cincinnati will use Arroyo as their SP tonight and he has been alternating good outings with poor ones. His last start was also in that game against the Cubs where Wood was the home team's SP and he only allowed two runs in that game. Arroyo struggles a bit against LH batters (4.68 FIP), while he is clearly better against RH batters (3.59 FIP). However, the Cubs don't usually give him problems, as their roster in 125 AB against him have hit just .216 BA! The Cubs are likely to insert a good number of LH batters once again tonight like they did last week, however only DeJesus has been in good form this month, while Rizzo is clearly struggling. Therefore, I don't expect Arroyo to heavily struggle tonight, but even if he struggles, the Reds have their great bullpen to save the situation. 

With I expecting Wood to struggle a lot tonight and with the Cubs not being able to cause a lot of problems to Arroyo, I believe Cincinnati will bounce back from yesterday's loss to the Mets with a comfortable win today. Therefore, I'll take the Reds tonight.


NOTE: Also available on 5Dimes at 141 / 1.71


Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 904 Cincinnati Reds RL -1 (w/ B. Arroyo) @ -139 / 1.72 on Pinnacle


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andre gomes
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NOTE: Three more Plays were just added into tonight's Package!

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andre gomes
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Posts: 3759
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NOTE: Tonight's MLB package is now fully uploaded on my Pros Page: 11 Plays (10 Premium Plays + 1 Free Premium Play) for today, including a TRIPLE DIME PLAY!

Good luck! Yes

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andre gomes
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08/17 WNBA CARD:

WNBA - 601 San Antonio Silver Stars @ 602 Tulsa Shock


Projected line: San Antonio by 5 points

San Antonio was the hottest team in the league right before the Olympic break with 9 straight wins, so the pause came in a bad timing for them. The Silver Stars rely on their shooting and ball movement ability to score and so, it's normal that they will now need some time to come back on their top form once again. They aren't a physical team, so Tulsa will run with them tonight. Becky Hammon was in the Olympic Games and she's the motor of San Antonio's game, so I don't expect the Silver Stars to have a great game tonight.

On the other hand, Tulsa will play with their usual lineup and they will run with San Antonio tonight. They were able to cause problems to San Antonio early on the season and I believe they can take advantage of San Antonio's bad spot for tonight to cause them trouble and be competitive today. Therefore, I'll take the Shock in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 602 Tulsa Shock (+9) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker



WNBA - 605 Atlanta Dream @ 606 Chicago Sky

Projected line: 155 points

My projected line for this game according to the season numbers is actually 148.5 points, however this game will have some differences from the games these two teams played on the 1st half of the season. Chicago's best perimeter player is back and Epiphany Prince was the key for the good run the Sky had very early on the season, as not only she's a good outside shooter, as her presence helps spread the floor and give more space to their dominant center Sylvia Fowles. That's why Chicago is averaging 99.29 offensive rates with Prince playing and 93.10 without her.

We can say something similar about Atlanta's best player Angel McCoughtry, who struggled with some physical problems in the 1st half of the season, missing some games because of this. According to my numbers, Atlanta is averaging 97.8 offensive rates with her and 92.8 without her, but with her back on the court in good form, I expect the Dream to run more because Angel is deadly on the open floor. And I'm not even counting with Erika de Souza, who will make her season debut with Atlanta tonight. With Erika, Atlanta gets a new powerful weapon down low and this will be the beginning of the new-look Atlanta Dream: a faster and more dangerous on offense team.

So, after reviewing the influence of these two players, my new line for this contest is 155 points and so, I see enough value on the Over in here to take it. 

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 605/606 Over 151.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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