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Thanks for the nugget. Good night, sir.

And some additional NFL thoughts as of right now on week one.

I lean under at 41 (key number) in the Bears-Colts game. Colts defense is better than advertised and Luck will not have THAT kind of success on the road against an actual team. There is no chance of laying 10 points in week one, or probably any week for that matter.

Eagles-Browns: No chance of laying nine points on the road in the NFL, ever.

Buffalo at Jets: The Jets are in an emotional free fall, and they were BEFORE Tebow. Unless there really is divine intervention, they may end up as the worst team in that division. Buffalo plus the points.

Washington at New Orleans: Yes, I get that Brees is the field general, and I get that New Orleans has a chip on their defensive shoulder. However, let's not forget that the interim coach is suspended for six games. Dunno if Washington can win this game (they can) but I can see, barring turnovers, a back door cover in the making.

New England at Tennessee: If I knew anything about the Patriots I'd have an opinion. I gotta sell SOMETHING, but that total is too high.

Jacksonville at Minnesota: The Jaguars defense has always kept them in games. We'll see how Mr. Happy Feet (Blaine Gabbert) progresses, but I'm no sure how you don't take the +4.5 in a game that should stay under the total.

Miami at Houston: Miami never beats Houston! But, at more than 7 (which is available) Miami can cover this number without too much trouble. Loss of Mario Williams hurts more than most think.

St. Louis at Detroit: If that game even approaches the number then the Lions will cover, but I won't lay the points. The Lions might be good parlay material, or the Rams team total under.

Atlanta at Kansas City: Now here's a game I do think goes over the total. Atlanta will put up points, but they are what they are and that's a team that wants to run but cannot. Now that the Pioli footprint is taking shape the Chief will play sound football and be competitive. Of course this depends on the Bowe thing, but KC can score without him. Last team with the ball wins.

San Francisco at Green Bay: They seem to be begging people to take the 49ers and the points, and I may well have to do that. We'll see, but that's a pretty big total for two superior defenses. Also sitting at a key number right now.

Carolina at Tampa Bay: Hard to imagine that Newton is already a road favorite in a division game and a season opener. Because of that, I might think long and hard about taking the Bucs, who always start fast and we always look at home underdogs in every sport.

Seattle at Arizona: Real simple. TAKE the Seahawks at home and fade them on the road. See Patrick Peterson.

Pittsburgh at Denver: I'll leave that one for Marco. If Peyton beat them with the Colts he'll beat them with the Broncos, and vice versa.

Too lazy and too busy to look at the MNF games. Got CFB work to do, MLB work to do, and a wife to keep happy. Usually I can do that with a credit card, though.

Houston in a teaser would be great as well.

Redskins win 9 plus.. Great Future

I lean to Dallas tonight at little. I think perhaps the tipping point for me was the fact that perhaps Oakland's best weapon, Shane Lechler, isn't playing. Couple that with the injuries the Raiders have and the fact that Kyle Orton is better than Matt Leihart, I'd take my chances with the Cowboys. I'll probably watch the second half to see if Pryor's physical talents, which will be better than what's left on the field, are enough to win the Raiders the game. I tend to doubt it. Both teams kinda "are what they are", really. Also lean to the under as well. I've watched too many positive plays be subject to holding penalties to think that won't continue. Time will tell if I bet the game or not.

Thanks, Dave. Get 'em this week!

hey Dave any thoughts on that Skins total ...49.5.....thinkin under if Skins want to have chance  as getting into shootout  is deadly.......but that Skins secondary is worrisome.

deliveryman3

hey Dave any thoughts on that Skins total ...49.5.....thinkin under if Skins want to have chance  as getting into shootout  is deadly.......but that Skins secondary is worrisome.

That's a tough one with a ton of possible scenarios, at least "today". I really do think even the interim coach being suspended is going to have an effect. Yes, Brees is the "general" but it's different when you're on an island and there's nobody on the other end of the headset you really know/trust. And I often wonder how the Saints defense reacts. I wonder if they aren't somewhat passive knowing that they've every move might be even more scrutinized, hence penalized. Or, do they (whatever officials are working) give them a pseudo free pass back there. My guess is that New Orleans will go after Griffin (why wouldn't they?) so it probably depends on whether or not the Redskins can RUN the ball. Short answer, I really don't know yet, but it's fun to talk about. The one thing I do know is that the weather will not be a factor, and the wind should be calm............

I share your thoughts on the GB under.  I expect the total to rise closer to game time.  I'll be looking at the GB under all year, expecting to see inflated numbers.