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Why we like the Over of 7 in Fridays Marlins-Nationals Game...lets start with the obvious, neither of these two pitchers have been pitching up to par as of late. Josh Johnson has a 5.48 road era and has allowed a combined 9 runs through his last 11 innings on the road. For a strikeout pitcher that Johnson is, a red flag goes up when he has struck out just 32 batters in his 44 road innings. Johnson is coming off of a start at home against the Padres where he wiggled in and out of jams allowing 6 walks through 5 innings. That should be a different result tonight as he faces the Nats for the third time this season. The first two times against them he allowed a combined 8 runs through 11 innings on 18 hits. He was favored both times in those starts at home and tonight being an underdog on the road, we expect some runs against. This is a Nationals lineup that has a combined 128 ABs against Johnson with a .313 average and 3 HRs. The Nationals will be pitching Gio Gonzalez who has a 5.51 era over his last 16 innings where he allowed 10 walks on 10 Ks, 2 HRs and 13 hits. Gonzalez has a 3.17 home era but is coming into this game with a bad taste in his mouth from his last home start where he allowed 6 runs through 3 innings on 2 HRs to the Mets. This is a Marlins team that surprisingly does hit leftys pretty well. On the season, they average 3.9 rpg with a .241 average and 38 HRs. These are two bullpens that can scare you a bit with the Marlins coming in with a 3.58 road era and a Nationals home era of 3.58. A few trends to consider are that the Marlins are 20-13 on the Over when facing a lefty, they are 9-6 on the Over as a road dog of +125 to +150. The Nationals are also 9-6 on the Over as a home favorite of -125 to -150. We will play on the Over of 7.

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