Here's something to read. Learning, learning, Lloyd. Free play tomorrow, perhaps in an early game. And these are subject to change pending Monday games.
St. Louis at Milwaukee: I must admit that I was a little surprised to see the early money on the Brewers and Thornburg, but after thinking about it, they (the Cardinals) haven't seen him, but neither had Toronto when he gave up four bombs. Wainright was rolling along in his first start after the break at Cincinnati before he fell apart in the 7th, so that does make me question his stamina after having a year off. He has, however, owned the Brewers individually, so without seeing lineups I'd almost have to lean to the under and the Brewers RL at only +135.
Phillies at Dodgers: The first thing I usually think about when I see day games in Los Angeles is how much better the ball usually travels there, as opposed to night games. And what is also interesting and surprised me is that in Lee's last six starts he's given up a ton more flyball outs. But as you'd expect he has owned the Dodgers lineup over the years. I'd like to think the Phillies win this game, but perhaps that's a first-five bet because their bullpen has been non-existent. For that reason, and the fact that BOTH pitchers CAN hit a little, I do lean to the over here.
Pirates at Rockies: We always look to back McDonald, and it looks like even though the Rockies opened as favorites the Pirates probably will be the favorite when this line closes, simply because it's Guthrie. However, he (Guthrie) had a couple of good starts on the road before getting crushed at home by the Phillies, who hadn't been able to hit anyone, so after facing the LHP in Frederich and perhaps resting a couple of people, I would have to say that this is the Pirates game to lose, give not only the SP edge but the bullpen as well. I do think they might have a hard time getting to that inflated total of 10.5 runs, so I could only bet the under in this one.
Houston at San Diego: Richard tossed a two hit shutout over seven innings in Houston about a month ago, and typically I'd look for the hitters to adjust, but this is Houston and Richard just does not walk anyone, so I cannot see the Astros scoring here. Team total under for me. The Padres kicked Wandy around pretty good in Houston not long ago, and although I am a Wandy fan, probably not today. If he DOES make the adjustments I'd look for this game to stay under the total, especially with both bullpens pitching well of late.
Mets at Washington: This is a sneaky game because the Mets have actually hit Zimmerman pretty well and the Nationals haven't hit Young all that well. Clearly there's an advantage to the Nationals in the back end, and I was actually hoping the Mets RL wasn't quite so expensive. Not sure I can fade Zimmerman at this point, and am not hunting dead dogs, but this one may not be quite as easy as it looks on the surface.
San Francisco at Atlanta: I almost always lean to the Braves at home, and especially against a team that's just not used to the heat and humidity. Obviously Minors' had his struggles, but the Giants have seen very little of the kid. Then again, they ARE 18-9 against left handed starters, so perhaps there is some good value in the Giants as dogs here, especially if the Braves pen gets used much on Tuesday night. We shall see, and the Braves are a tough out in Turner Field, so I lean Giants and under in this one.
Arizona at Cincinnati: There's probably not much chance of me fading Latos, given his performance(s) the last month or so, but he did seem to struggle a bit more than usual with his command against the Cardinals. Conversely we've made a lot of money fading Kennedy, but with no Votto and limited exposure to the Reds in general, this game may well not see the eight runs, which is about all I can do here. Because the D-backs ARE capable of hitting, and it IS a small park, I can't see laying -150 here, really.
Miami at Chicago: I hate this game already. Both of these pitchers have been on the wrong side of me once too often. Samardzija looks like he might have found a little bit of a groove after the rest, but the Fish have seen him and have a put a few dents in him here and there. Johnson's been lit a couple of times, and just when it seemed he was coming around, too. Given the neither bullpen is even close to trustworthy, I'll wait for the total and if it's under a million might fire the over. We'll see what happens, but I lean Cubs here, a bit.
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I always enjoy the breakdowns Dave, BOL this evening & GET MONEY!!!!
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Thanks, Dave.....nice job
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Griff I always enjoy the breakdowns Dave, BOL this evening & GET MONEY!!!!
Bruno Bets Thanks, Dave.....nice job
Enjoy the writeups- Cinn. O/U 8 seems to beg under, it's fishy to me and Latos -140 doesn't warrant much more than a small wager. The Bal/Minn Over is worth a look at IMO, we'll see whose in lineups.
Knock 'em dead today!
Dave,
Great observations. I always learn when reading your stuff -- great content and I enjoy your writing style.
Thanks for posting.
Ed
cbelongia Enjoy the writeups- Cinn. O/U 8 seems to beg under, it's fishy to me and Latos -140 doesn't warrant much more than a small wager. The Bal/Minn Over is worth a look at IMO, we'll see whose in lineups. Knock 'em dead today!
Dr. Ed Meyer Dave, Great observations. I always learn when reading your stuff -- great content and I enjoy your writing style. Thanks for posting. Ed