I saw you mentioned the term "true wins numbers" in your free pick write-up today.
Could you expand on what that phrase means?
Keep up the great work.
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I did a video on this early in the baseball season but for some reason I simply can't find it.
There is a great amount of variance in baseball and I came up with this formula to sort of smooth out the outliers. Historically is takes 2 hits in order to score 1 run. If a team scores 5 runs in a game for example they should have produced about 10 hits. It's not exact obviously as teams that hit for power tend to not need as many hits in order to score, but overall a 2 to 1 ratio works out well.
When looking at a box score you simply divide the hits made by 2 and get a true number. For example Team A wins the game 6-4 and outhits the opposition 11-5. In using my True Runs Formula I would have 6-4 runs & 5 1/2 to 2 1/2 hits. The winning team not only won on the scoreboard but they also won the hitting game. That team would receive a True Win while the opponent would get credit for a True Loss.
If in that game the team that won 6-4 didn't outhit the opposition neither team would be credited with a True Win or True Loss. That would eliminate an outcome that could have gone either way by the grouping of hits, which is random. We are trying to eliminate that randomness.
This process also works for totals. In a game lined at 8 1/2, Team A wins 6-4 and outhits the opposition 11-5 as in our first example. That result would result in a no play regarding the total. We had 10 total runs but the hits only resulted in 8 (16/2). If that game would have had 18 hits instead of 16 that would result in a True Runs Total of 9 and coupled with the actual runs of 10 would have been a True Runs Over result for the two teams.
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Bryan: Just to clarify the statement, "If in that game the team that won 6-4 didn't outhit the opposition neither team would be credited with a True Win or True Loss."
So if the team that lost the game 6 to 4 on the scoreboard actually outhit their opponent ,say 12 to 6, you wouldn't credit the losing team with a "true win" and the winning team with a "True Loss."
Sorry if this is a redundant question.
"I mean really, I don't see why you people just can't watch the horses run around the track and not bet on them."
It would have to be a sweep of winning in runs and hits.
Gotcha. Thank you Bryan.
I am a handicapper myself and i own my own service. A win is a win. The team either won or lost. There is no almost in sport betting. I have 1 kind of number lol WIN OR LOSE
Anthony Louis - Owner of TheSportDr - Sport Handicapping - Over 65% Follow me on Twitter
While true, we are looking to find ways to make money going against public perception. You will find little value in using well known numbers. This is why people like Gill Alexander has a lot of success handicapping baseball.
SportDr: I believe the point of this metric is to set up possible future trades. As a lifetime 69% handicapper, which strains credulity, you should be aware of this.