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I did a video on this early in the baseball season but for some reason I simply can't find it.

There is a great amount of variance in baseball and I came up with this formula to sort of smooth out the outliers. Historically is takes 2 hits in order to score 1 run. If a team scores 5 runs in a game for example they should have produced about 10 hits. It's not exact obviously as teams that hit for power tend to not need as many hits in order to score, but overall a 2 to 1 ratio works out well.

When looking at a box score you simply divide the hits made by 2 and get a true number. For example Team A wins the game 6-4 and outhits the opposition 11-5. In using my True Runs Formula I would have 6-4 runs & 5 1/2 to 2 1/2 hits. The winning team not only won on the scoreboard but they also won the hitting game. That team would receive a True Win while the opponent would get credit for a True Loss.

If in that game the team that won 6-4 didn't outhit the opposition neither team would be credited with a True Win or True Loss. That would eliminate an outcome that could have gone either way by the grouping of hits, which is random. We are trying to eliminate that randomness.

This process also works for totals. In a game lined at 8 1/2, Team A wins 6-4 and outhits the opposition 11-5 as in our first example. That result would result in a no play regarding the total. We had 10 total runs but the hits only resulted in 8 (16/2). If that game would have had 18 hits instead of 16 that would result in a True Runs Total of 9 and coupled with the actual runs of 10 would have been a True Runs Over result for the two teams.