Sitting here in Harrisburg airport with finally a little time on my hands. Thanks to those of you that reached out this week. Back to the business at hand, and as usual all of these still hinge on Fridays' games, or at least the ones that I'll get to now.
Atlanta at Washington: At first look I really like the Braves in this one for two reason. First, Gio just pitched against them for the first time and threw a one-hitter for seven innings, so now that they've seen him, they'll adjust. Secondly the Braves are one of the best hitting teams against LHP in the league. And it doesn't hurt that Gonzalez has thrown five straight games with 106 or more pitches. Beachy has had one outing where he gave up more than three earned runs, and that was last week against Washington. HE should make the adjustments as well.
Miami at Philadelphia: I know Hamels is a stud, but -160 to the Miami offense, or the potential thereof, with a decent pitcher for the Fish, just isn't going to happen. He (Nolasco) hasn't faced them this season, but over the course of time he's given up long balls or nothing to them, as they hit for a low average against him. Hamels has thrown a TON of pitches, and did pitch against the Fish in game one this season, and was hit fairly hard, so I suspect he's go revenge on his mind. That does make it tougher to make a case for Miami. I wanted to try and take the under, but with the wind blowing out hard to RF I just can't do that. With Miami's recent bullpen struggles I'd have to think Philadelphia is indeed the right side, and cannot make a case for the RL either way, either.
St. Louis at NY Mets: I can't fade Dickey at home as an underdog, period. And the only time I can justify taking the Mets is against RHP, so without even looking it the Mets or nothing. Lynn is not as invincible as he has early, and in fact has started to give up a lot more flyball outs. I can see making the Mets a 3* play without too much trouble here, barring an injuries I am unaware of at this point, or anything stupid happening Friday, especially given that the Cardinals haven't seen much of the knuckleball, or at least HIS.
Dodgers at Rockies: Well, with these two starters, some warm weather, and a slight breeze out to center, I'd almost have to think that they do score ten runs. Nicasio is simply not backable having given up 5 earned runs in each of his last two starts, and having a 1.58 WHIP this season, so a side play would almost have to be the Dodgers, especially without Tulowitzki in the lineup. The Dodgers pen has some decent recent numbers, but that's been at home. Over the course of the season they've NOT been good away from that pitchers' park, so I am back to thinking that the polygonic over might work here.
Pittsburgh at Milwaukee: If Braun's achilles keeps him out of this game, I will take Bedard at this generous number. The Brewers have had exactly 17 at bats against him, by three people. Marcums' been fairly hittable, albeit inconsistent. Yes, He's capable of throwing a shutout here, which makes me also lean pretty hard to the under as well, but all the Pirates have seen him at least a couple of times. This would be a classic first-five Brewers and Pirates for the game bet, if I was so inclined, if for no other reason than the fact that the Brewers home bullpen ERA this season is 5.99. Yes, they've been better lately, but on the road and four of those games were in Dodger Stadium.
Cubs at Giants: Well, people are going to want to hop all over the over when they see only 6.5 and a decent breeze blowing out here, but I'd be careful with that. Cains' WHIP this season is a sweet .93 so the Cubs simply aren't going to score much, one would think. Garza'a WHIP is only 1.16 but the last two starts he's given up five bombs, however, this is a big ball park and the Giants haven't seen much of him, nor in those limited at bats have they shown they could hit it over the fence. Interestingly enough, Garza has been crushed on the road, which is not what you'd expect pitching in Wrigley half the time. Have to think that at home with a better bullpen that the Giants win this one, and at -150 it's at about the threshold to where I'd consider it. This could well be one of those games where I take the Cubs RL and the Giants ML for the appropriate amount so as to minimize risk and think that the Giants win 3-2. We'll see what happens.
OK, time to fly. Might get some additional thoughts when I get back, or perhaps tomorrow morning. Peace. Out.
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Welcome back buddy and we all hope your girl is on the mend.
ATP - French Open Winner - David Ferrer (+4000)
What up Dave going to c Tarver winky Wright fight tomorrow.Great card
Dave,
I anm sorry to her about your daughter, just reading this now... not sure what happened, but if you need anything just drop me a line, you now how to get in touch....
best wishes to you and your family
Sorry to hear about your tough times.
If you have time, would you mind explaining the math on your comments in the cubs giants game about takes a favorite at -150 and the +1.5 runline on the dog at -160?
Struggling to see how you make money off that long term.
Appreciate it.
jtwink Sorry to hear about your tough times. If you have time, would you mind explaining the math on your comments in the cubs giants game about takes a favorite at -150 and the +1.5 runline on the dog at -160? Struggling to see how you make money off that long term. Appreciate it.
Thanks Dave, appreciate the response
Hey Dave...totally missed previous post somehow...hope your daughter is headed in right direction now
Welcome back, Dave!
Angels