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As the great Lee Corso would say... "Not so fast my friend" LOL. I know that weather is a factor when handicapping totals but I tend to overlook it alot and have done ok for the most part with them. Great example is the last 3 days.

3 Days ago I played an over in the Minnesota/ Detroit game and did not look at the wind at all. One of my followers came to my thread and asked if i was worried that the wind was blowing inb strongly and I said oops I miised that. Well the teams put up 19 runs and hit a bunch of HR's.

Now that got me thinking that I got lucky on that play and maybe I should look at the wind and weather a bit more closely. I wish I hadn't.

The Last 2 days there was strong winds blowing in at Texas and I played both games Under and both went way over, with a bunch of HR's hit. Texas even hit 3 in 1 inning yesterday. Now I didn't make the plays based soley in the wind as I felt there were other stats and good enough pitching on the mound to make the plays solid. Yesterday Henderson Alverez has been pitching very well and so had Colby Lewis. and Texas was averaging just about 4.4 rpg at home, while Toronto doesn't score well on the road and the game went over by the 6th inning.

Two nights ago Brandon Morrow came in with an 0.63 ERA on the road, vs a struggling texas offense and at that point Texas home games had gone 12-5-1 UNDER on the year. Boom 17 runs are scored with Texas putting up 14 runs vs a pitcher who was rolling.

I know three days is a small sample size, but over the years I have done very well by ignoring the wind opr weather most of the times, so I may be a little gun shy when taking a look at vthe wind, especially after the last few days. LOL.  Good stuff though Bryan and BOL to you as always.  

IMO the key question about weather is whether the odds account for it.

Cubs totals can vary great based on the wind - so clearly just playing OVER when the wind is blowing out is not the answer.

When the weather is accounted for, I agree with Jeff Scott that it does not have to be deeply considered.

So the question is, Bryan . . . when most often is weather under-accounted for?

I agree Bryan. Totals are tough to predict, but weather is definitely a factor. Mainly, wind, temperature, and humidity. If it is a relatively hot day, the humidity is low, and wind is gusting out, of course the baseball will carry much further. The reason being is that the air is thin and dry, and the wind is propelling the ball. This would be an opposite scenario if conditions were reversed, as the baseball flight would be hindered by the cool, dense air, and If the wind is blowing in, this would make it more difficult. It is just one of many factors to consider when handicapping Totals. Great point about the wind giving a knuckleballer an advantage if it is blowing towards them, as batters have a difficult time following the ball flight. Also, cold weather can affect performance of the players, as their body is trying to warm up. Blood is rushing to their core. This affects muscles and joints in their extremities, which could lead to inefficient batting and fielding errors. Of course if all conditions align correctly, it does influence my opinion on a Total. Great article Bryan

Great write-up of critical information for Baseball cappers...I also consider altitude (AZ,COL), humidity or lack of ... (SD, SF, SEA/TX, KC) , and roof dynamics (AZ, MIL, MIA, SEA) for overall ballpark RPG projections while checking daily wind and temp reports...

When most often is weather under-accounted for?

IMO books do not under-account a specific factor, but will make errors or react slowly to changing conditions.  Couple weeks ago a 5 Inn line on a Indians home game with D Lowe on the bump and the wind blowing in, it seemed the books didn't adjust to what seemed to me were definite Under conditions with a GB pitcher and hard wind in, knocking down what balls were hit in the air.

Played it and won.

While watching the Indians game at Chicago yesterday the announcers pointed out how well the ball was traveling. They also commented on today's game being projected to be much warmer. With two starters that haven't overwhelmed anyone with their strikeout ability we could see a high scoring contest once again.

50 some degress in Oakland today.......Under?

Informative and stimulating capping discussion.  I echo RJ's sentiments in regards to the importance of knowing when and when not the opening odds have accounted for weather.  Line movement on the total doesn't even always tell the story as I have seen unders hit with 15 MPH winds blowing out in some places.   As RJ asked, anyone aware of when most often weather is unaccounted for or is it a case-by-case basis?

Hey DMan. The humidity level is also high near 75%, and the wind is blowing over 10mph, but not sure of the direction. If blowing in, of course that would be a nice scenario, plus these pitchers have been performing well. Line has dropped to 7.5. Check out Marco's Betting First Look. You may have a good selection there.

RTG

Hey DMan. The humidity level is also high near 75%, and the wind is blowing over 10mph, but not sure of the direction. If blowing in, of course that would be a nice scenario, plus these pitchers have been performing well. Line has dropped to 7.5. Check out Marco's Betting First Look. You may have a good selection there.

2-0....ez under