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not  a great night last night, but Hunter pence did bail me out with his 2 run HR, to give me a win on the Over in the St Louis/ Philly game. I went 4-3 overall and 2-2 in my top plays. It was my 4th winning day in a row and i afve gone 9-5 in my top plays over that stretch. Let's keep it going today.

TOP PLAYS

4 UNIT PLAY

Washington/ Atlanta Over 7.5: Interesting to note here that Stephen Strasburg has it in his contract that he is not to go over 160 innings pitched this year and so he has pitched past 6 innings just once this year. Stephen does has a 2.21 ERA overall, but a 3.60 ERA in his last 3 starts, while the Nats pen has a 3.47 ERA on the road this year, so this struggling Braves offense should be good for a few runs off their pitching today, especially if we add in the fact that Stephen also has a 4.35 ERA in 2 career starts vs the Braves. The Nats offense hasn't been great this year, but they have turned it on a bit of late, averaging 4.8 rpg in their last 6 games and they will be taking on Mike Minor, who has struggled mightily of late. Mike actually has struggled all year with a 6.96 ERA overall, but in his last 5 starts he has allowed 6 ER's or more in 4 of those starts. Mike's starts this year have averaged 11.2 rpg, while his home starts have put up 9 rpg, Mike has averaged just 5.9 innings pitched per outing and behind him is a pen that has a 4.83 ERA in this park. We should get a few extra runs from both pens in this one as this ga,e flirts with DD runs.

3 UNIT PLAYS

Detroit/ Minnesota Over 9: Not sure what happened yesterday as I started to make a write up for the over in that game and then deleted it, but was still supposed to go back to it. That didn't happen and i left a winner off the table. Not today. Since the return of Justin Morneau the Twins have been involved in a bunch of high scoring games. 8 of the 9 games played since his return have put up at least 9 runs on the board. The Twins scoring has been up over that stretch as they have averaged 6.4 rpg in the 9 games, compared to less than 3.8 rpg before hand. Pitching has been a problem for this team all year as they ar last in ERA (5.49) and they come in having allowed a whopping 9 rpg in their last 5 games. Today the Twins send out Carl Pavano, who has a 6.65 ERA in 4 home starts this year, with his home starts averaging 10.3 rpg. Carl also has a 6.61 ERA in his last 5 starts vs Detroit, with 4 of te 5 starts hitting at least 9 runs. Max Scherzer pitched well in his last starts, but that was vs a weak hitting Pitt squad. Max comes in with a 5.73 ERA on the year, including a 5.33 ERA on the road, with his 5 road starts averaging 11.2 rpg. Max also has a 6.03 ERA in 6 day starts this year, with those starts averaging 11.7 rpg, plus he has a 6.45 ERA in 6 starts vs te Twins, with 4 of those 6 starts putting up 10 runs or more. Detroit had been struggling on offense and I expected that a trip to Minnesota would cure that and it did as they banged out 16 hits and put up 10 run. I expect their hitting to continue today, while Minnesota's hot hitting will also continue as this one reaches DD with ease. 

Chicago/ Pittsburgh Over 8:  Last night I had the Over in this game and just 1 run was scored. Tonight should be a different story, with different pitchers on the mound. For some ream Kevin Correia just does not pitch well at home as he has a 6.19 ERA in in appearances (17 starts) at PNC in his career. Last year Kevin faced the Cubs twice at PNC Back Park and he allowed 13 ER's in just 5.2 innings of work in the two starts. Paul Maho;lm had a decent 4 game stretch recently, but he has since allowed 9 ER's in his last 2 starts and he does have a 6.08 ERA on the road this year, with 10.7 rpg being scored in those games. Also we note that neither pitcher has pitched well at night this year as Kevin has a 6.08 ERA in 4 night starts, while Paul has a 6.10 ERA in his 2 night starts. Both offenses have struggled this year, but I see tyhat ending tonight as thease team hit at least 10 runs here.  
 

POWER ANGLE PLAY

Philadelphia/ St Louis Over 9: Ok lets go for 3 in a row in picking Over's in this series. The first 2 in the series has gone Over the total, but tonight we have the worst pitching matchup yet and with both offenses playing great right now this one should easily hit 10 runs. Cardinal home games this year have gone 17-5 OVER and they have the third highest scoring park in the league , at 10.6 rpg. Jaime Garcia has a 3.38 ERA at home, but his home starts have still averaged 10 rpg. Kyle Kendrick has a 5.79 ERA in 3 road starts this year and in 1 starts vs the Cards here last year he allowed 7 ER in just 5 innings of work. The Phils offense is coming alive and they do score 4.7 rpg on the road, while the Cardinals have averaged 6.05 rpg on the road. The Phils Pen has as 4.92 ERA on the road, while the Cardinals pen has a 3.65 ERA at home, so we should get some late runs here as well. This should be easy. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Since August of 2007 the OVER is 17-1 in a Cardinal game if they played the day before and that game was tied on exactly 3 different occasions. 11.7 rpg have been scored in this situation. 

Milwaukee/ Arizona Under 9: (Added) Nice pitching matchup here should result in a low scoring game. Zack Greinke comes in with a solid 2.70 ERA on the year, while in his last 3 starts (21.2 innings) he has allowed just 1 ER on just 12 hits. Zack also has 24 K's and just 2 walks over that stretch, so he is locked in right now. On the other side we have Wade Miley going for the D-Backs. Wade comes in with a 2.14 ERA overall, including a 1.86 ERA in his last 3 starts, plus he has the added advantage of never having faced the Brewers. The Brewers have been scoring alot of late, but most of that was done at home and they average just 3.5 rpg on the road. The D-Backs have scored 19 runs in their last 3 games, but just 1 run in game 1 of this series and just 4.04 rpg at home on the year. Neither offense is that great and both pitchers are pitching very well right mow. This one will struggle to hit 6 runs. 

OTHER PLAYS

2 UNIT PLAYS

Texas/ Toronto Under 9.5

Kansas City/ Baltimore Over 8.5 

LA DODGERS -120 over Houston (Added)

1 UNIT PLAY

Washington -1.5 (+130) over ATLANTA 

TRENDS OF NOTE

The Mets are 15-2-1 OVER vs lefties this year.

Miami is 17-4-1 OVER at home this year, including 6-0 OVER at home in day games.

San Fran is 15-9 OVER on the road, compared to 14-7-1 UNDER at home.

St Louis is 17-5 OVER in home games this year, with those games averaging 10.6 rpg (3rd in league)

Arizona is just 4-11 at home vs Righties

Oakland is 23-8-1 UNDER vs righties this year, but 8-5-1 OVER vs lefties

Pittsburgh is 6-1 at home vs lefties, while the UNDER is 10-4 overall when they face a lefty this year.