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It was looking like a god day yesterday, but Colorado and san Diego scored just 1 run from the 4th inning on after putting up 4 runs in the first 3 and then Detroit blew a late lead to lose to Seattle. In a matter of minutes a day that looked like 6-3 turned into 4-5. Uggh. Let's get it back today. 

I did took the weekend off from writeups to  to take a break and to take a look at how i was handicapping and one of the things i found my self doing was trying to get my full card out by 1 PM or so and that was not good. I will not rush my cards anymore , but I will make sure that all of the plays I make will be posted at least 2 hours before they start. 

 

TOP PLAYS

5 UNIT PLAY

Colorado/ San Diego Over 7: Jeff Suppan? He's still around? LOL. Jeff has pitched well vs the Rockies with a 3.86 ERA in 7 starts vs them. but in his career he has 5 starts at Petco and he has a 4.20 ERA in those starts and he will be taking on a solid Rockie offense that will be looking to get back on track after scoring 2 runs last night. The rockies have been held to 2 runs or less in BB games just 4 times this year and in they have gone on to average 13.3 rpg in their next game.  Alex White will be making his first start of the year for the Rockies, while in 10 career starts (all last year) he had a high 7.01 ERA, with 8 of his last 9 starts all putting up at least 7 runs. The Padres average just 3 rpg at home, but in their last 5 at home that number has gone up to 4 rpg and I see them offensive improvements continuing here vs Alex White, who just is not a good pitcher and who allowed 4 ER in just 5 innings vs the Padres in his lone start vs them. I really don't see how both team don't hit at least 3 runs in this one as the game should easily go over the 7 run mark here.   

3 UNIT PLAYS

POWER ANGLE PLAY

ARIZONA -128 over St Louis: Last night it took a while for the D-Backs to wake up but they did and scored 6 runs in the 6th before falling 9-6 in the game. Part of the reason for the late wake up call can be attributed to the fact that they were off a 9+ game road trip and teams in that situation are just 3-7 on the year now. What really helps us tonight is the fact that teams in game 2 off a long trip are a sparkling 7-1 on the year. Ian Kennedy takes the Hill for the D-Backs and he is off to a nice 3-1 start with a 3.23 ERA, while he is 2-0 with a 4.58 ERA at home. In 36 career starts at Chase Field, Ian is 17-6 with a 3.15 ERA. Jake Westbrook is also off to a nice start, with a 3-2 mark and a 2.12 ERA, but he does come in a 1-2 with a 3.15 ERA in his last 3 starts. Yes Jake has been good vs Arizona at 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA in 2 starts vs them, while Ian is 1-1 with a 12.00 ERA in 2 starts vs the Cards, but Arizona is a very good team and they showed a lot of fight last night after falling behind big. Their focus will be there from the get go tonight and that will translate into a better performance all around, plus Ian has been very good in this park. Look for the D-Backs to get some revenge tonight. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- The D-Backs are 11-0 in their last 11 games with Ian kennedy on the mound, if he is off a game in which he had a WHIP of 1.00 or less.  

CLEVELAND -133 over ChiSox: (Added) Cleveland took both games of the DH yesterday and that now gives them 6 wins in their last 7 games, which has included 4 straight over Chicago. Cleveland's offense has been stagnant for much of the year, but they are turning the corner and have averaged 5.1 rpg in their last 7 games. Cleveland has averaged 3.7 rpg at home overall, but 4.6 rpg in their current home stand. Tonight the should continue to put up some good offensive numbers  vs John Danks, who is 2-4 with a 6.51 ERA on the year, which has included a 7-5 loss to the Tribe at home last week. John is 4-3 with a 3.99 ERA in 8 starts at Progressive Field, but he is 4-8 with a 5.13 ERA in 15 starts overall vs the Tribe. Justin Masterson is off tough a rough 1-2 start and a 5.20 ERA. but he has pitched well at home vs the ChiSox with a 2.02 ERA i his last 4 starts vs them here, despite a 1-2 mark in those starts. Cleveland is playing much better ball than the ChiSox are right now and they should take this one behind a solid outing from Masterson.  

Philadelphia/ NY Mets Over 8.5: (Added) Time to stop fooling around Philly and put some runs on the board. This should be one of the games that they do. First reason is that the wind is blowing out to left (15 mph's or so) and the second is that they are facing Miguel Batsita Miguel has just one start on the year and he allowed 6 ER in just 3.2 innings to a weak hitting San Fran team in that start. The Phils still have some good offensive players, especially with Pence getting hot now and Ruiz playing well also. Joe Blanton had a nice start in his last outing vs the Braves and he does have a 2.83 ERA on the year, but in his 3 previous starts (before Braves game) he had a 4.41 ERA. Blanton has also not fared well vs the Mets of late with a 5.61 ERA in his last 5 starts vs them. He will face Mets team that hits well on the road. The Mets hit just .243 and score 3.19 rpg at home, but on the road they have scored 4.7 rpg an have hit a solid .283 and that has translated into a 10-3 OVER mark in their road games this year. Hopefully the Phils will win, but either way I expect it to be high scoring.     

Toronto -128 over OAKLAND: (Added) Brandon McCarthy was to start tonight, but Jarrod Parker gets the nod instead and will be facing a Toronto team that seems to be settling in offensively. The Jays have hit just .240 in their last 10 games, but they have averaged 5.3 rpg over that stretch. They do hit just .215 on the road, but they score 4 rpg away from home, while the A's have hit just .204 and have scored just 2.9 rpg in their own park this year. Getting that offense going tonight won't be easy for the A's as they face Ricky Romero who is 4-0 with a 1.49 ERA in 5 starts vs the A's, including a 2-0 mark with a 1.13 ERA in 2 career starts here. Behind Ricky is a a pen that has a 2.01 ERA on the road, so the A's offense should be shut down all night, even if Ricky leaves. Im not expecting the A's to be fully focused here either as this is their 1st game back from a long trip and teams are 3-7 in that situation this year, plus they did win 4 of their last 6 on the trip and that was vs Tampa and Boston, so a let down may be in order as well. Look for Tampa to bounce back from their 2 game slide and take game 1 here vs an unfocused Oakland team, that just can't score or hit at home. 

OTHER PLAYS

2 UNIT PLAYS

NY YANKS -1.5 (+160) over Tampa Bay: My one long shot I like to throw out there every once in a while. last year the home team went 9-1 in this series, with the Yanks going 3-1 at home vs the Rays, including a 5-0 shutout form Ivan Nova. He is off two bad starts and will look to get back on track here as the Yanks finally pound someone at home.  

LA DODGERS -1.5 (+125) Over San Francisco: LA is just playing too well on offense right now to be held down in this one, while the have Clayton Kershaw on the mound and he is 4-0 with a 1.29 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the Giants. Look for LA to continue to play well here and put up another easy win. 

1 UNIT PLAY

Washington/ Pittsburgh Under 7.5: Burnett was rocked in his last start for 12 runs, but he should come back strong here vs a Washington team that doesn't score a lot. Also helps that Burnett has a 1.98 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the Nats. Pittsburgh home games have gone 9-2-1 UNDER this year and with a couple of inept offenses and better than average pitching, I look for that trend to continue here.