Well i promised i would have writeups again come Monday and I will keep that promise, but not sure it's the best course of action as I went 18-7-1 overall without them over the weekend. LOL We'll see what happens, but don't be surprised if I go back to mixing it up (writeups some days and some days not), especially if I struggle today. I did figure somethings out as far as a routine and my approaches are concerned, so we'll see how this all pans out.
4 UNIT PLAY
Boston/ Kansas City Under 9: (Added) Ok Slap me now cause I'm really gonna follow the sharp money on this one (and you know how much I hate to do that). It does make sense. First we have two lefties on the mound and those games have gone 19-13-1 to the UNDER this year. Next we have the stat that Marco threw out there and that's the fact that all four games the Royals have played vs a lefty starter have gone under, with just an average of 5.3 rpg being scored. The Royals do hit .271 at home vs lefties, but they score just 2.2 rp/9 vs them at home, plus they have never seen Doubront, which gives the advantage to the pitcher. Felix Doubront has pitched ok on the road, with a 4.09 ERA and will be taking on a weak KC offense that has averaged just 3.7 rpg at home on the year. Jonathan Sanchez has a high 8.22 ERA at home, but that was due to 1 bad start in which he allowed 5 ER i just 2.2 innings vs the Tribe, but then came back stronger in his next home game, allowing just 2 ER in 5 innings to the Tigers. Sox players also have just a .188 BA against Sanchez, but only Adrian Gonzalez has more than 6 AB's vs him and he has just a .231 BA with 1 HR in his 39 AB's vs him. Also we shouldn't alot of late runs here as the Sox have a pen ERA of 1.57 in their last 10 games, while the Royals have a pen ERA of 2.21 over the same stretch. I expect at the most 7 runs in this one.
3 UNIT PLAYS
LA Angels -1.5 (-115) over MINNESOTA: I have a hunch. I say that Albert Pujols will finally wake up after hitting his first homer of the year last night and what better way to really do that than vs a very bad pitcher in Liriano, even though Albert is 0-8 lifetime vs him. Recently the Twins skipped Liriano's spot on the rotation, because he just wasn't pitching all that well. It didn't work as he came back in his next start and allowed 4 ER in just 5.1 innings of work to these same Angels. Let's face it, he is not a good pitcher right now and even a month off couldn't help him. Liriano is 0-4 with a 9.62 ERA on the year and in 2 starts vs the Halos this year he is 0-1 with a 7.83 ERA. Tyhe Twins have been outscored by 3.6 rpg in his starts overall and 4.3 rpg in his last 3 starts. On the other side we have Jared Weaver, who is 4-0 with a 1.61 ERA (0.78 WHIP) on the year. In 124 AB's, cyurrent twins players are hitting just .194 with 4 HR's off him.He does have some payback in mind here as the Twins tagged him for 5 ER in his lone start vs them this year, but still he has gone 6-2 with a 3.72 ERA in 12 career starts vs the Twins. The Halos have had problems scoring this year, but not while Jared is on the mound, as they have given him 5.5 rpg worth of support, while outscoring their opponents by 3.5 rpg. The Halos are 0-2 in Jared's road starts, but tonight vs a truly bad pitcher that mini road slump should end in easy fashion. Halo's by 3+ runs here.
St Louis -113 over ARIZONA: (Added) Line movement is really keeping this from being a higher play, as 63% of of the Public is on the Cards, yet the line has dropped from -130 to -113. Ouch and would someone please stop me from talking that way. LOL Still I feel the public is right here. The D-Backs are off a long trip and teams back from a road trip of 9 or more games are just 3-5 on the year. The cards will be sending out Lance Lynn, who has a 5-0 mark with a 1.60 ERA on the year, while on the road he is 3-0 with a 1.25 ERA. The Cards offense scores just 4.2 rpg on the road, but they have averaged 6 rpg in Lynn's 3 road starts and 7 rpg in his starts overall. The Cards also hit lefties at a .270 clip on the road and as far as pitching goes they have a team ERA of 2.77 on the road, with teams hitting just .220 vs them away from home. Arizona sends out Joe saunders and he has had a good start to his year, with a 2-1 mark and a 1.24 ERA overall, but he is going up against a very good offense and that means that his offense will have to step up and put up more than the 3.4 rpg they have averaged for him this year. I don't see it happening vs Lynn. D-Back starters have averaged just 6 innings per game at home and should Saunders struggle some then he will turn the ball over to an Arizona Pen that has a 5.02 ERA and a .292 BA against in their home games this year. Tomorrow may be the time to take the D-Backs as teams in their 2nd game back from a long trip are 7-1, but tonight in this spot with a Cardinals team that has the better starter and offense I will look their way.
Atlanta -117 over CHICAGO: (Added) Offense. The Braves have it right now and the Cubs do not. I know that its nothing new for a team to put up a trillion runs in a 3 games set at Colorado, but let's also note that this offense put up 6 runs on Roy Halladay and 9 more off of a solid Phils bullpen recently. The Braves hit righties at a .273 clip and score 5.7 rp/ 9 off of them on the road, while the Cubs have hit just .240 and scored 3.7 rp/9 off of righties at home. Jeff Samardzja is having a solid year, especially at home where he is 1-0 with an 0.59 ERA, but one one of those starts was vs a Cards team that had just suffered some offensive injuries and the other was vs a weak Washington offense. The Braves are healthy and hitting well, so I expect them to get to Jeff in this one. Tommy Hanson has pitched very good for Atlanta and the Braves are 3-0 in his last 3 starts. This should also be a close game and that means it should come down to the pens, giving the Braves a big advantage. The Braves are playing well right now and their offense and pitching should be good enough to get a good win tonight.
Detroit -130 over SEATTLE: (Added) Doug Fister is back to he old stomping ground and while he did go 9-16 in 34 starts in this park, he did have a 3.42 ERA during that stretch. When he was with Seattle he wasn't given much run support, but he know has a solid offense behind him. Last year with the M's he was 3-12, but with a very nice 3.33 ERA as they gave him just 2.3 rpg, while with Detroit he was 8-1 with a 1.79 ERA and they gave him 4.9 RPG in his 10 starts for them. In 1 starts this year he lasted just 3.2 innings (injury) but gave up 0 runs, while the Tigers put up 10 runs in that start. This is a very good pitcher that will prosper with a better offense behind him and he should have little problems shutting down a Seattle offense that hits just .205 and scores just 3.6 rpg in their own park. Blake Beavan has not been good for Seattle this year, with a 1-3 mark and a 4.45 ERA overall, including an 0-2 mark with a 5.82 ERA in his last 3 starts. Neither pitcher has faced their opponent, but the tigers do have the better starter and offense and should take game one here.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Detroit/ Seattle Under 7: Despite a 9-16 mark in this park, Doug Fister has a 3.42 ERA in 34 starts here. Meaning a lot of low scoring games here for him. Detroit Hit's just .230 on the road, while Seattle hits just .205 at home. Here's the clincher. Since 2009 the Mariners have gone 22-0 UNDER when they are off a game that went UNDER the total by 1 run or less. I see 6 runs here, meaning we could have same play tomorrow. LOL
St Louis/ Arizona Under 8.5: (Added) Wanted to make this one of my top plays, but the money coming in on the over, plus the fact that this looks way too easy, has me putting it a one of my lesser plays. Both pitchers have been stellar, as Lynn has an ERA of 1.60 to start the year, while Suanders is at 1.24. Both starters also have WHIPs of under 1. This has the makings of a 3-2 pitchers duel Cards win though. LOL
1 UNIT PLAYS
Chicago/ Cleveland Over 8.5 (Game 1): Despite throwing a perfect game, Philip Humber still has a 4.62 ERA overall, including a 5.40 ERA in his last 3 starts, while his games have averaged 10 rpg on the year. Humber has 1 start here (last year) and he allowed 7 ER in just 6 innings. Cleveland bats are waking up, while the ChiSox should be able to tag Zach Mcallister (6.11 ERA in 4 career starts, all last year) for a few. Game 1 should provide plenty of runs.
Colorado/ San Diego Over 6.5: (Added) Had to take a shot with this one. I know it's at Petco but it's not often you will get a Rockies game with this low an OU line. I expect both offenses to have a good showing in this one.
Having some problems with my the amount of characters in my forum signature, so I will post my records in my threads for the sports they pertain to.
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BOL buddy! I look at it this way with the writeups....every time I try and do a write up I feel like im fighting to justify myself and end up seeing things that arent there or doubting myself when im done. Also, every minute you spend typing is one more minute you don't get to actually cap. You're stuff is as solid as there is so nobody is going to question your pick...if people are going to follow the write up or lack there of shouldn't matter.
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ALL PREGAME POSTED RECORDS BASED ON A 1-2-3 UNIT SCALE.
2011 MLB 3* 14-11 +7.89 units
2011 MLB 2* 25-19 +15 units
2011 MLB TOP PLAYS 39-30 +22.89 units
2011 NFL 3* 6-3 +8.1 units
2011 NFL TOP PLAYS 8-4 +9.9 units
2011/12 NFL PLAYOFFS 7-3-1 +6.7 units
2012 CBB A-10/CAA GAMES 32-18-1 +23.5 units
2012 CBB 65-50-2 +9.8 units
2012 MLB INTERLEAGUE 12-8 +8.86 units
2012 MLB 2* 42-32 +18.94 units
2012 MLB 72-64 +6.91 units
2012 CFB 3* 12-8-1 +9.6 units
2012 CFB 21-16-2 +8.1 units
2012 NFL 2* 9-5-1 +7 units
2012 ALL SPORTS 195-164-8 +13.61 units
NBA 54-49-4 +9.8 units (NOV +10.7)(DEC +7.7)(JAN +15.8)(FEB +8.6)(MAR +7.1)(APR +7.1)
NBA PLAYOFFS 6-5 +3.3 units
MLB 18-13 +13.75 units (APR +2)
MLB INTERLEAGUE 1-0 +3.45 units
PREGAME DOCUMENTED LONG TERM WINNING STREAK
7/6/12 THRU 2/16/13 (7 MONTHS PLUS) ALL SPORTS RUN 152-105 (59%)
2013 PREGAME FANTASY HOCKEY CHAMPION
I am a Pregame.com Director of the Boards!
Glad the write ups are back! Your insight on games, angels on totals and PA are really informative and i look forward to your thread everyday. The win loss record will take care of itself when you are doing such quality stuff!!!
BOL JSS and keep up the GREAT work...
Thanks very much guys for the nice words. I will try my hardest as always to provide as much info as I can, along with solid picks. BOL to you all as well.
I am an admitted lurker and enjoy reading posts and never posted before... But as I read your write up on the angels twins match-up.. I wanted to point out that weaver just no hit this team... Yeah I know at home but wudnt that have been the " payback" as you call it :) can't do much better than that. As for the game tonight...(I am originally from STL living now in orange county Cali past 10 years after grad school) I think angels may be ready to close the gap on rangers... The tension is gone... All players can be loose and just play... No more distractions... Their bullpen will be the difference, if they progress or not. Given the twins line up, angels shud take this series rather easily.
Weaver no hit twins last week:) just saying...
Phillies/Dodgers/Angels - all have studs pitching today and will be hard to beat
Over 9.5 in Rangers vs Orioles is my favorite total for today
Good luck Jeff
2012 NFL 33-29 (+13.55 units)
2012 CFB 34-35 (+6.90 units)
2012-2013 CBB 271-220-16 (+71.10 units)
2012-2013 NBA 4-5-1 (-4.20 units)