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Another split of my top plays last night as I went 2-2. it would have been 2-1-1 but a gain i lost with 2 outs in the ninth inning when Arizona gave up a HR to Atlanta. I hate losing that way. I hate losing any way, but last night I lost my 4 unit Under play in the Dodgers game in the 3rd inning and was much happier losing that way then the way in Arizona. Oh well on to today.

TOP PLAYS

3 UNIT PLAYS

Boston/ Minnesota Under 8.5: Gonna think outside the box on this one. When I first saw the line ,my initial knee jerk reaction was how can this line be so low? Both teams have been hitting and both staffs aren't worth a plug nickel, plus both of today's starters have struggle out the gate. The the first thing i noticed (can't believe I'm gonna say this) is that the line opened at 8.5 even and now the juice is on the Under yet over 90% of the bets are on the Over. Then I went inside the number and I have to agree with those guys. The Under is 10-3-2 in the last 15 in the series and 24-9-2 the last 35 in Minnesota. Yes Lester has struggled to start the year (5.82 ERA) and yes he has a 6.08 ERA in 3 starts in Minnesota, but this is still Jon Lester who we know can pitch and with the Sox reeling like they are he knows they need his best game yet if they are to break out of their funk. Let's also take notice that he will be facing a Minnesota team that has scored just 3.8 rpg at home on the year. Offensively Boston has been very good at home, but on the road they have averaged just 3.7 rpg, plus they have a lot of offensive injuries, with Crawford, Ellsbury, Repko all out and Youkilis listed as questionable and that has to take a toll on this team offensively as we move into the season. Jason Marquis got hit a bit in his first outing, but he does have a solid 3.29 ERA in 2 career starts vs Boston. I hope I didn't over think this one, but this total looks way to easy for the Over. The thing that scares  me is the Boston pen, but I feel that Lester will go deep into this one and pitch a beauty, while Marquis will do the same vs an injury riddled Boston squad and that will leave fewer chances for these pens to blow this one. Look for no more than 7 in this one. 

New York Yankees +102 over TEXAS: Not only do some good stats back the Yanks here, but we also have and angle that most here at pregame like to follow and that is the fact that teams off a long road trip don't generally do that well in their first game back. The Rangers are off a a 9 game road trip and teams off a trip that long are 0-2 in their first game back this year. CC Sabathia does have a 5.59 ERA in his 3 starts this year, but he is 1-0 in those starts, while the Yanks are 2-1. CC has a 4.80 ERA in his last 6 starts vs Texas (including postseason), but he is 4-0 in those starts, while the Yanks are 6-0 in those games. Derek Holland has not fared well vs the Yanks, as he is 0-4 with an 8.78 ERA in 5 career starts vs them, with the Rangers going 1-4 in those starts. Today Derek gets to face a hot Yankees offense that is hitting .344 in their last 5 games and have averaged 7.9 rpg in their last 7 games overall. Granted two of those games were in Boston (21 runs) and the rest have been at home, where both parks are hitters park, but this may be the best hitters park in the league, so I look for the Yanks strong hitting to continue here. Funny stat here for the Rangers. Texas has averaged a solid 7 rpg on the road this year, but just 4.4 rpg at home and that is a very odd number considering how well this team hits at home. Lots of distractions for the rangers, coming home off the long road trip and they are at a disadvantage on the mound, plus the Yanks offense is very hot right now. Take the Yanks here at a small dog price.  

St Louis/ Chicago Under 7: The Cubs have had a devil of a time scoring runs of late as they have averaged just 2.9 rpg in their last 8 games overall. They have put up 4 rpg at home, but have hit just .238 in the process. Today the face Jaime Garcia, who has a solid 3.06 ERA in his 3 starts so far and he has been very good vs the Cubs with a 2.30 ERA in 4 starts vs them, including a 2.70 ERA in 2 starts here. Matt Garza has always been a better pitcher at home where he has a 3.33 ERA in his career, compared to a 4.39 career ERA on the road. This year he has pitched very well at home so far, allowing just 2 ER in 14.2 innings of work and he will be facing a St Louis offense that has been struggling to score without Berkman and Jay in the lineup. Both teams will struggle to score in this one vs two very good pitchers. Look for no more than 5 in this one.   

OTHER PLAYS

2 UNIT PLAYS

NY Mets/ San Francisco Over 7.5 (Game 1): Tim Lincecum has had a rough go of if in his 3 starts this year so far, posting a 10.54 ERA so far. The Mets are not a great scoring team, especially at home (3.3 rpg), but they should be good for at least 4 runs here vs Tim, who just hasn't found his game just yet.  Tim did pitch much better at home in his last appearance. After allowing the Phils 4 1st inning runs, he then allowed just 1 run in the next 5 innings, but out on the road it has been a different story. In 2 road contests he has allowed 11 ER in just 7.2 innings of work. Ouch. Miguel Batista gets the nod for the Mets and this will be his first start of the year. Miguel has a career ERA of 4.45 as a starter, including a 6.91 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the Giants. Granted his last start vs the was back in 2006, but he does come in not pitching well out of the pen (3 ER in 5 innings) and he will be taking on a Giants team that scores much better on the road than at home. The Giants have averaged just 2.83 rpg at home, but away from their spacious pitchers park they have averaged a healthy 5.1 rpg. Both teams should be good for 4+ run as this one flies over the total. 

Atlanta +124 over LA DODGERS: The Dodgers have done very well vs the bad teams on their schedule, but not so great vs the 1 good team they played (Milwaukee) and the Braves fall into the good team category. Atlanta has won 6 of their last 7 games and have done it with an offense that has averaged 8.2 rpg over that stretch. The Braves offense uis now 3rd in scoring and 6th in hitting and it doesn't appear they will slow down anytime soon. Chris Capuano does have a 1.64 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the Braves, but Atlanta is hitting .277 vs lefties this year and after starting 0-3 vs left handed pitching, they have won their last 5 vs them. Jair Jurrjens has struggled out the gate, but his 8+ ERA won't last forever as he is a very solid pitcher and he is 1-0 with a 3.30 ERA in his last 3 starts here. LA's offense has been hot but they were shutout in Houston yesterday and may be ripe for a cool down period.  LA is undefeated at home, but still Pittsburgh and San Diego are not the caliber of team that Atlanta is and besides a team won't go undefeated on the home field all season anyway. Look for Hot-lanta to stay that way with a solid road win over the Dodgers here. 

1 UNIT PLAY

Philadelphia/ Arizona Over 9.5: This line doesn't make sense as both teams can't score right now, but because it doesn't make sense that's why I'll take the Over. These offenses should break out here vs really crappy pitching and put about 12 runs on the board in this one.