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Its draft time................Billy Barou's Fantasy Baseball Q & A thread!

Its draft time................Billy Barou's Fantasy Baseball Q & A thread!
StatLabSports
Joined: 02/24/2011
Posts: 859
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Dont be shy!

I think I will be shy from now on after reading this from you

"I think your point is very dangerous and wrong thing to portray to anyone."

Needless to say I read nothing of your post after this...your point lost to your rudeness.

Dave Basinger

On Twitter @StatLabSports

 

BillyBarou
Joined: 02/20/2007
Posts: 4410
All Pro
Top 150 Contributor

If I was rude in response to your post I flat out apologize.  However, with your vast experience and the host of statlabsports..........how do you make a blanket statement about anything fantasy?  People come in here asking for advice where they spend hard earned money and use whatever knowledge they have to turn a couple hundred dollar investment into a couple of thousand dollars in the fall.  Saying to avoid fantasy 4 and 5 starters is like telling a client not to bet a certain team because they have a 7 foot white center who has limited skill.  At the beginning of my thread, I asked people to be as specific as possible when asking a question.  Fantasy has so many variations between game type, league size and rule play.  Shame on a professional who makes a blanket statement and fails to realize where this could hurt somebody.

Its like you telling a client to bet the Bulls -10 on a given night and fail to see that Derrick Rose was out injured.

Shame on you for missing the boat!

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StatLabSports
Joined: 02/24/2011
Posts: 859
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Ok, lets start over...

Hey Bill,

I'm in a 12 Team 5x5 standard roto w/ inning limits of 1400, daily moves and 6 scoring pitching slots.  I am using a pitching strategy where I use 3 SP's who have good K numbers and middle relief specialists to help keep the ERA and WHIP numbers low.  

With the 1400 inning limit, I have been using 3 Middle relievers to take the place of my 4th starter.  I am also playing the matchups for 2 starts per week in a limited pitch and ditch type situation.

My goal is to have the most efficient pitching by focusing on pitchers with good K:9 ratio numbers.

I am curious what you thought of such a pitching strategy.

Take Care and good luck with your league :-)

Dave Basinger

On Twitter @StatLabSports

 

BillyBarou
Joined: 02/20/2007
Posts: 4410
All Pro
Top 150 Contributor

Hey Dave

Glad we ironed it out.  This is the second time I am responding to you.  I was almost finished before, but my 20 month old son hit the delete key.

Nice

I will condense it a bit, since I m pissed my son messed me up.

I totally understand the strategy, but I have 3 big problems with it.

#1  A big injury hurts you more than the normal teams would.  Since you are so reliant on your starting pitchers that you do have, a big injury would be catastrophic to you.

#2 Your strategy also makes it very important that you get 2 or 3 elite closers.  If you are going to be hurting in wins and hopefully middle of the pack in k's, you have to make it an effort to get 2 or 3 big time closers........because the closers in addition to save usually have favorable k rates and have good ERA and WHIP.  I hate wasting high draft picks on closers.  In my 5x5 leagues, similar to yours...........A Kimbrel, Papelbon, Rivera, Axford would go for 12-15 bucks in an auction and start to fly off the draft board starting in round 5, or round 6 for sure.

#3  My biggest reason NOT to do this.  If you go out and do this strategy, more than likely you will be hurting in at least ONE of the following offensive categories........HR and/or SB.  Here's why.  You devote so many high picks to the starters and closers you need to get.........Even if you get a few of the big SB guys, you will be exposed in the HR category, which is the biggest problem.  But lets say you address the Home Run category, you will more than likely be stolen base poor.  That means going into the Opening day of situation......there are 10 categories in your league.........and you are hurting in 3 of them.......automatically...........if no one gets hurt.  You can certainly cash in this scenario, but I dont see how you win.

I can speak from experience that you can use your strategy as a plan B.  I used it in a league 2 years ago.  It was a 16 team 5x5 league with no innings limit.  But it was weekly moves and I have to start 10 pitchers.  It was the middle of May and all of my starters got off to an AWFUL start.   7 weeks into the season, my ERA was over 5, I was dead last in wins, strikeouts, ERA and middle of the pack in WHIP and saves.  I traded my better starters, and struggling starters , sometimes for 60 cents on the dollar.  Started the minimum 4 starters the remainder of the season........went 2 middles, and 4 closers.  I had such a lead in saves and the deadline, I traded some closers for more power and Michael Bourn.  I dominated the batting portion of the league, and I stabilized the ERA, WHIP.  I knew I was dead in wins and k's........finishing near the bottom. My team was 14th right before Memorial day, and I finished in 6th, getting the last cashing spot of the league in the final 3 days of the end of the season.

If you are tempted to use your strategy, here is my advice.

Not only do you have to get 3 big K guys.........you have to get 3 guys who are AAA rated healthy guys.

You need one sure-fire ACE...........One of these,  Verlander, Halladay or Kershaw

Then you need on ACE that people dont look upon as an ace.  Matt Cain, Sabathia or Hamels

Then you need the sleeper Ace.........Matt Garza.

The composite of those 3 guys should give you 700 innings, half your allotment.......nearly 700 strikeouts.........and ERA around 3 and a WHIP under 1.2.....all of which are great starts.

Make sure you have 2 stud closers, and another solid closer and the only category you would be "punting" is wins.

This allows you to be competitive in ALL offensive categories and knowing that you are punting one category on opening day is a lot better than knowing you are going to struggle in 3........makes you a good bet to cash, and gives you a good chance to win.

Best of luck, hope this was helpful

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SKing24
Joined: 11/23/2007
Posts: 1883
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Top 500 Contributor

Hey Billy.  First off, thanks for putting in time with offering up advice!!

I'm in a 10 team 5x5 roto league.  HR, RBI, SB, R, OPS.  K, S, ERA, WHIP, W.  No inning limit.  Weekly subs.  I was wondering if you could point out any category I could some help in.  Here is my team:

C McCann

1B Teixeira

2B Pedroia

3B M. Young

SS A. Ramirez

MI Kipnis

CI Butler

OF Braun

OF Pence

OF Markakis

OF Hunter

OF S. Smith

DH J. Montero

9 Pitching slots: Cain, Bumgarner, Hanson, Darvish, Luebke, Sale, Santos & Thornton.

Bench: Moustakas, Carp, Belt      Clippard, Nicasio

 

Thanks again for your time!!

 

BillyBarou
Joined: 02/20/2007
Posts: 4410
All Pro
Top 150 Contributor

Remember, dont be offended at what I say, I m trying to help here.

Based on your 10 teams league.........On the offensive end, probably one power bat short of being good......lacking a little overall team speed and probably will be in the lower/middle in runs.

Thats not my major problem.............your pitching

For a 10 team league..........I HATE your pitching.

Not don't like it........HATE it.  Not so much as the talent of the pitchers...........but the age.  You have one anchor in Cain, I love Cain, in my mind he is an ace of a major league team.  The problem is, and always has been......the guy NEVER wins.  EVER.  A pitcher cant control his wins, but man, his talent dictates he should have a few more.  Now I look at the other 8.  Bumgarner, Hanson and Darvish have great stuff.......actually every pitcher on your staff has great stuff........that doesn't translate.  I think your pitching is too YOUNG.  I maybe dead wrong and all your starters could win 15+ and pitch great, but as uncertain pitching is, your pitching takes the cake.   Not to mention, not one proven closer in the bunch.  How can you punt saves in a 10 team league.  I think you did yourself a big disservice.  Young pitchers are often up and down, and definitely fade down the stretch.

Now the problem, how do you fix it........I really dont know.  I think you have to get into the season and maybe trade one or two of them for a veteran quality pitcher who gets off to a bad start.  I gotta think that there are pitchers on the wire that are really good too.  

I think a few 2 for 1 trades, and picking up an equivalent on the wire is what the doctor orders

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SKing24
Joined: 11/23/2007
Posts: 1883
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Thanks.  No offense taken.  I am a novice at fantasy baseball (3rd season).  Here are the available pitchers on the WW.  Do you suggest any of them?

Edinson Volquez

(SD - P)

Scott Baker

(Min - P)

Roy Oswalt

(Phi - P)NA

Aaron Crow

(KC - P)

Matt Capps

(Min - P)

Daniel Bard

(Bos - P)

Gavin Floyd

(CWS - P)

A.J. Burnett

(Pit - P)

Sergio Romo

(SF - P)

Vinnie Pestano

(Cle - P)

Ryan Vogelsong

(SF - P)

Phil Hughes

(NYY - P)

Brian Fuentes

(Oak - P)

Joakim Soria

(KC - P)

Henderson Alvarez

(Tor - P)

Mike Adams

(Tex - P)

Aroldis Chapman

(Cin - P)

Julio Teheran

(Atl - P)

Juan Abreu

(Hou - P)NA

Josh Collmenter

(Ari - P)

Luke Hochevar

(KC - P)

Chris Capuano

(LAD - P)

Javier Vázquez

(Mia - P)NA

Jeff Niemann

(TB - P)

Drew Pomeranz

(Cin - P)

  
  
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
  
  
  
 
  
  
  
   
    Bitmap
   
  
        
  
(Cin - P)

  
  
  
   
    Bitmap
   
  
        
  
(Sea - P)

  
  
  
   
    Bitmap
   
  
        
  
(Oak - P)NA 

  
  
  
   
    Bitmap
   
  
        
  
(Oak - P)NA 

  
  
  
   
    Bitmap
   
  
        
  
(Tor - P)

  
  
  
   
    Bitmap
   
  
        
  
(StL - P)

  
  
  
   
    Bitmap
   
  
        
  
(Mil - P)

  
  
  
   
    Bitmap
   
  
        
  
(Tex - P)

  
  
  
   
    Bitmap
   
  
        
  
(Cin - P)

  
  
  
   
    Bitmap
   
  
        
  
(Bos - P)

  
  
  
   
    Bitmap
   
  
        
  
(NYY - P)

  
  
  
   
    Bitmap
   
  
        
  
(Bos - P)

  
  
  
   
    Bitmap
   
  
        
  
(Mia - P)

  
  
  
   
    Bitmap
   
  
        
  
(LAA - P)

  
  
  
   
    Bitmap
   
  
        
  
(Phi - P)

  
  
  
   
    Bitmap
   
  
        
  
(KC - P)

  
  
  
   
    Bitmap
   
  
        
  
(Atl - P)

  
  
  
   
    Bitmap
   
  
        
  
(TB - P)

  
  
  
   
    Bitmap
   
  
        
  
(Mia - P)NA 

  
  
  
   
    Bitmap
   
  
        
  
(Det - P)

  
  
  
   
    Bitmap
   
  
        
  
(Col - P)

  
  
  
   
    Bitmap
   
  
        
  
(SF - P)

    
   
        
  
(CWS - P)

  
  
  
   
    Bitmap
   
  
        
  
(Det - P)


[edited by: SKing24 at 2:26 PM (GMT -7) on Fri, Mar 23 2012]
BillyBarou
Joined: 02/20/2007
Posts: 4410
All Pro
Top 150 Contributor

I like Gavin Floyd for sure, but there are more than enough options like Vazquez, the KC closer and Voloquez where you can trade 2 for 1

Best of luck

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StatLabSports
Joined: 02/24/2011
Posts: 859
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Bill,

Thanks for your response.

1. I agree that an injury to my starters will have more impact than a standard pitching roster.  I did make sure to avoid the injury problem guys but we know pitchers are 1 throw away from Tommy John Surgery

2.  Got the closers with Baily, Putz and Chris Perez with David Robertson, J Venters and Mike Adams in the wings if they get the shot.

3.  We are a keeper league and I kept bats, so hopefully the offense shouldn't be too effected with this, but your right I had to use  early picks for Baily and Putz that I would have used on another bat. 

Bill, I appreciate your warning, but this thing is moving forward!  I'll let you know how its going.  I am also glad we ironed this out too...

Best of Luck

Dave Basinger

On Twitter @StatLabSports

 

BillyBarou
Joined: 02/20/2007
Posts: 4410
All Pro
Top 150 Contributor

Can you list your team on here so I see whatcha got.  

I am very curious to see how you make out through the season

I have my draft thursday night, my auction next sunday and I m DYING to get into another league

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