For what it's worth, yesterday turned out to be another good day. We placed a total of six wagers, and cashed four of them to finish a +2.19 units for the day, and bring our season total up to +36.49 units.
We bet 1 unit on the PITT 1st 5 ML - Ivan Nova was good enough and Bartolo Colon was lousy. That's about par for the course this season. The Pirates jumped on Colon for 5 in the 2nd and added 2 more in the 5th. It was 7-0 after 5, as PITT romped.
We bet 1 unit on the TB 1st 5 RL - The Rays got 2 in the 1st off Wright and added 2 more in the 5th. It was 4-0 after 5 and stayed that way. Andriese was even better than expected. He tossed 8 innings of 5 hit shutout ball.
We bet 1 unit on the ARIZ 1st 5 ML, and another unit on the ARIZ full game ML - ARIZ got a run in each of the first 3 innings and that was more than enough for Robbie Ray, who absolutely dominated "The Brew Crew" with 7 innings of 2-hit shutout ball, with 9 Ks and 0 walks.
We bet 1 unit on the DET 1st 5 ML - The Tigers staked Justin Verlander to a 3-0 lead in the 4th, but he couldn't hold it. HTN came back with 5 in the bottom of the 4th, and it was 6-4 HTN after 5, giving us our first loss. That what can happen when you bet against a really good team, and make no mistake, HTN is a very good team.
Finally, we bet half a unit on the Cards 1st 5 ML - It looked good early, when the Cards jumped on Maeda for 3 in the 1st, but the Cards would not score again, and Wacha couldn't shut down the potent Dodgers, who got to him for 1in the 2nd, 3 in the 4th and 2 more in the 5th. Just in case we didn't get the message about betting against really good teams in the DET/HTN game, the Dodgers drove the point home. They are also a very good team, unless they're facing a lefty.
On to today's games.
DET @ CHI WS
Starting Pitchers
*Past 3 calendar years as a starter
Buck Farmer
Farmer is still starting in the minor leagues, but he has only started in eight of his 32 major league appearances over the past three seasons. His record in those eight starts is 0-5. He possess a major league-average slider to go with his plus change. In fact, Farmer's change has top-25 drop in the major leagues (minimum 100 thrown). The problem is that Farmer's fastball is straight. Average movement on that pitch, paired with only slightly above-average velocity, has given him average whiffs(5.86 K/9) but also a line drive and home run problem (2.29 HR/9). That and a few hanging sliders have kept him out of the DET starting rotation, and in the bullpen or the minors. His number as a starter with DET are uniformly ugly.
Mike Pelfrey
This season, Pelfrey is 1-4, with just one quality start in his six our outings. That one Quality start was his most recent one, at SEA, in which CHI staked him to a 4-0 lead before he ever took the nound. They gave him a 10-0 lead in the 4th inning. In four of his six starts he didn't even gone 5 innings, and he's averaging just under 5 innings per start. His 11 Ks (3.34 per 9), and 10 walks (3.03 BB/9) leaves a lot to be desired, as does his 11/10 K/BB ratio. It should also b noted that his 44.6% GB rate is down about 5% from last season.
For His career, Mike Pelfrey is 66-92, with a 1.50 WHIP, and a 4.57 ERA. His advanced metrics, a 4.76 SIERA and a 4.60 xFIP, are even higher. He has a 5.00 K/9 rate and a 3.18 BB/9, which translates to a 1.57 K/BB (4.6%).
Pelfrey's pace is among the 10 slowest in the game. When he finally does throw the ball, Pelfrey will mostly throw either a decent sinker or an low-spin splitter toward the plate. It won't result in a strikeout because Pelfrey had the worst strikeout rate in the game . It might end up in a walk, since his walk rate is well below average. Combine those two stats and you get one of the worst K/BB ratios in the game. His 48.4% career ground ball rate is more okay than elite. There's just not much to like about Pelfrey.
These are two really bad pitchers, and I reiuse to give either an edge.
Wdge - NONE
Bullpens
The White Sox bullpen is pretty good. The Tigers pen is a disaster. Only PHIL might be worse, and that's debatable.
EDGE - CHI WS big
Offenses
DET's offense is well above average, while CHI's is well below average.
Edge - DET
Defense
Edge - DET
Home / Road Records
DET is 10-14 on the road v 12-10 at home
CHI is 8-8 at home v 12-17 on the road
Edge - NONE
Conclusion: This is simple. Both starting pitchers suck - big time! I'm betting at least one of them, and probably both get lit up in this game
Pick - 1st 5 OVER 55 (-115 for 2 units)
SD @ WASH
Starting Pitchers
Luis Perdomo
Perdomo has started seven games for the Padres. He's 0-1 with four quality starts. Perdomo has allowed more hits (45) than innings pitched (37.1), but only 3 HRs. He's striking out almost a batter per inning (36), and has walked 11. Opponents are hitting .311 against him, but he has an excellent 69% GB rate. Perdoma has actually pitched better than his record or his bloated 5.79 ERA would suggest. His advanced metrics are over 2 full runs better than his ERA. That discrepancy can be explained by his abnormally low 60.9% strand rate with is 5.5% below his career 66.4%, and his abnormally high .382 BABIP, which is 33 points higher than his career .349. Even so, Perdono is still getting hit to the tune of a .302 BAA.
Perdomo had a f4-seamer and a 2-seamer at some point back in 2015, but someone must have noticed that his the sinker was superior in every way, movement, relative velocity, whiffs, grounders, line drives, and HRs off the pitch were all equal to or better than what his 4-seamer produced, and suddenly the 4-seam was almost gone, and Perdomo was pounding his two two-seamers with regularity. For the season, Perdomo only posted a 9-10 record, with a poor 1.59 WHIP and a 5.71 ERA. However, his advance metrics, a 4.00 xFIP and a 4.04 SIERA, were considerably better. That tells me he was pitching considerably better that his ERA suggested. He retained all his excellent peripherals on the 2-seamer as he threw it more. In August, he started throwing the splitter more to complement the curve. That produced 2 months with a 1.31 WHIP, a 4.20 ERA, and a 61% GB rate. He still only had 5.6 K/9 in that stretch, but neither the curve nor the splitter generates K's. However, it did produce GBs. making it a plus pitch.
Max Scherzer
Scherzer has started nine games for the Nats. He 4-3 with seven quality starts. Scherzer has allowed just 43 hits in 59.2 innings, with 76 Ks, 16 BBs and 9 HRs. His WHIP's under 1, his ERA's barely over 3 (3.02), and his metrics are solid. Opponents are hitting under .200 .198). What's not to like here?
Last season, Scherzer was a near unanimous choice as the NL Cy Young Award winner. He had an excellent season, going 20-7 with a 0.97 WHIP and a 2.96 ERA. His advanced metrics, a 3.27 xFIP and a 3.05 SIERA were also superb, as were his 31.5% K rate and his 6.2% BB rate. His numbers this season are every bit as good, so far.
When Scherzer runs into trouble, it's because he is slightly HR prone (1.36 HR/9). For example, in his last start, a 5-2 loss at ATL., he only allowed 4 hits, but two of them were HRs. He's become a fly ball pitcher. The best fly ball pitchers usually limit HR's per fly ball and induce a lot of infield flies. Scherzer's 0.69 GB/FB ratio last season was the worst of his career , and his 11.9% HR/FB rate was the 2nd highest of his career. Scherzer couldn't quite keep the ball in the yard. This season, his GB/FB ratio is slightly lower at o.66, but his HR/FB rate is a little higher 12.9%. HRs are the only real blemish in an otherwise stellar record.
Perdomo's decent, but Scherzer is elite.
Edge -WASH
Bullpens
Everyone knows that the WASH bullpen sucks, but the Padres pen really isn't much better. Maybe a little better, but I wouldn't trust either one.
Edge - SD slight, maybe
Offenses
WASH is an offensive powerhouse, and SD has a woefully weak offense.
Edge - WASH big
Defense
Edge - WASH
Home / Road Records
SD is 9-17 on the road v 9-14 at home
WASH is 14-8 at home v 14-10 on the road
Edge - WASH
Conclusion: Both of these teams have really bad bullpens, but WASH is loaded on offense, while SD has one of the worst offenses in the league. WASH also has the better dense and a good home record. SD is a bad team., and even worse on the road. As for these two starting pitchers, Perdomo's pitched better than his ERA or W-L record would suggest, but he still mediocre. Sherzer is the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner, and he' pitching just as well this season. Yes, he's a little HR prone, but he's not exactly facing a "Murder's Row" here. SD ranks 15th iin HRs, 16th in HR/FB ratio (12.9%) and 22nd in ISO (Isolated Power). I love betting on great pitchers coming off poor starts. I'll take Scherzer and the Nats powerhouse offense, in a 1st 5 inning wager, thus avoiding the bullpen.
PICK - WASH 1st 5 RL (-150 for 2 units)
NYM @ PITT
Starting Pitchers
Jacob deGrom
DeGrom has also made nine starts for the Mets. He's 3-1 with six quality starts, and he missed another by just 1 out. deGrom has allowed more than 3 runs just twice this season. He's given up fewer hit (50) than innings pitched (55.2), and he striking out well over a batter per inning (76,12.29 K/9). However, his 3.772 BB/9 and 1.13 HR/9 rates are both higher than his career 2.34 BB/9 and 0.76 HR/9. That certainly explains the 1.31 WHIP. His advanced metrics, a 3.21 SIERA and a 2.95 xFIP are lower than his 3.56 ERA. That and the fact that his 0.336 BABIP is 40 points higher than his career.296 mark, tels me that deGrom' s had some bad luck with batted balls in play, and he's actually pitched even better than his ERA suggests. Opponents are hitting just .237 against him.
deGrom wasn’t quite as dominant in 2016 as he had been in his previous two seasons. It was the first time that he struck out less than a batter per inning and allowed an ERA above 3.00. However He still posted a 13-7 record, with a 1.20 WHIP and a 3.04 ERA. His advanced metrics, a 3.47 xFIP and a 3.66 SIERA, weren't quite as dominant au usual, but still very solid. It
In fairness, deGrom did suffer an injury to the ulnar nerve in his pitching elbow that subsequently required surgery, and . limited him to 148 innings over 24 starts. This season, completely healthy, deGrom's K/9 has jumped to 11.68 and his ERA sits at 1.22.
Chad Kuhl
Kuhl has really struggled so far this season. He's started nine games with a 1-4 record and just two quality starts. He's allowed more hits (47) than innings pitched (40), and also walked another 17. That's 64 base runners in 40 innings, which explains the 1.60 WHIP. Opponents are hitting .292 against him, and his 33/17 K/BB rate is far from ideal.
The Pirates promoted Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow, two highly touted prospects, to their rotation last year, but it was unheralded prospect Kuhl who wound up tossing 71 solid innings posting a 5-4 record in his rookie season, with a 1.32 WHIP and a 4.20 ERA. His advanced metrics, a 4.50 SIERA and a 4.53 xFIP, were a little higher but not outrageously so.
Kuhl's mid-to-low 90s fastball and average slider was enough to get the job done last season. He doesn't have overpowering stuff, and he doesn't strike many guys out, but last season he got the job done by limiting walks and keeping the ball in the park. This season, the walks have been more problematic.
deGrom is elite, and Kuhl is mediocre.
Edge - NYM
Bullpens
These two bullpens are very close. The numbers seem to lean in PITT's direction, but tthe margins are ever so light.
Edge - PITT tiny
Offenses
The Mets' offense is slightly below average, but still clearly better than PITT's.
Edge - NYM
Defense
Edge - NYM very close
Home / Road Records
NY is 8-11 on the road v 11-15 at home
PITT is 11-9 at home v 10-17 on the road
Edge - PITT
Conclusion: These two bullpens are very close and very average. Offensively, the Mets are very average, but PITT is just [plain bad. PITT does lay somewhat better at home, and the Mets aren't goon on the road. However, the single biggest difference in this game are the two starting pitchers. deGom is elite, one of the best pitchers in baseball, while Kuhl is at best average. Ill back the much stronger pitcher with a five inning wager.
PICK - NYM 1st 5 RL (-101 for 2 units)
SEA @ BOS
Starting Pitchers
Yovani Gallardo
Much to my amazement, Gallardo ia 2-4, and has delivered three quality starts in his nine outings, including two of his last four! Equally amazing, is that he's allowed 3 runs or less in five of his starts. However, he got absolutely shelled in his last v the White Sox (9 h, 10 R 3.2 IP). Now, that's the Gallardo that I've been expecting all season. Gallardo has allowed 55 hits in 49.1 innings. His 19 walks are another concern, and his 36/19 K/BB ratio isn't great. Opponents are hitting .278 against him.
Gallardo was absolutely terrible for the Orioles last season, but that should come as no surprise to anyone, including the Os, who made the mistake of inserting him in their starting rotation. Gallardo posted a 6-8 record in 118 mostly bad innings. His WHIP was an ugly 1.58 and his ERA was an equally pathetic 5.42. His advanced metrics were equally dismal, a 5.22 xFIP and a 5.34 SIERA. His BB rate of 11.6% was only slightly worse that his 16.2% K rate. I never understood why the O's acquired him. I fully understand why they let him go, and I certainly don't understand why the Mariners (1) acquired him, and (2) put him in the starting rotation, but it's actually worked out a lot better than I thought it would.
Eduardo Rodriguez
Rodriguez was actually traded from BAL to BOS straight up for Andrew Miller at the 2014 deadline! He made his debut in 2015, posting a decent 1.29 WHIP and a 3.85 ERA in 121.2 innings. He looked like a solid young starter coming into last season, but a dislocated knee pushed his first 2016 start all the way back to May 31st, where he pitched 6 solid innings against the Orioles, giving up just 2 ERs with 3 Ks. Then the bottom dropped out. Over his next 5 starts (23.1 IP), r, Rodriguez would give up another39 hits and 26 earned runs, and got himself demoted down to AAA. After just two Pawtucket starts, he was recalled in mid-July, and for some unknown reason, returned as an entirely different (better) pitcher. From that point on, Rodriguez only had a 2-4 record, but posted a 1.15 WHIP and a 3,36 ERA over 77.2 innings, striking out more than a batter per inning (10.4 K/9. In the 60 innings he pitched in August and September combined, Rodriguez held batters to a .185 BA and gave up just 4 HRs, an issue that had plagued him heavily earlier in the season (1.35 HR/9). What changed to make Rodriguez a better in the 2nd half of last season? Much of his success was a result of gradually increasing his two-seam fastball and changeup usage, instead of his slider, giving him a more effective four pitch repertoire. His changeup was particularly effective (18.9% swinging strike rate), which bodes well for future improvement against right handed hitters.
Rodriguez's final 2016 line (1.30 WHIP, 4.71 ERA, 1.35 HR/9,) is misleading , he was a completely different pitcher after his 2nd call up and showed plenty of upside. If Rodriguez continues his development process this season, while maintaining his electric stuff, he could be a real sleeper.
This season, Rodriguez has started eight games for the Red Sox with generally positive results. He's delivered six quality starts in his last 6 outings. Even in his one subpar start, he only allowed 4 runs in 5 innings. Rodriguez has allowed less than a hit per inning, 36 hits in 49.1 innings and has averaged better than a strikeout per inning (55 Ks). Opponents are only hitting .206 against him. His walks are high at 3.35 BB/9, but that's it, in terms of warning signs.
Gallardo is mediocre at best, and Rodriguez looks like he's getting better.
Edge - BOS
Bullpens
The BOS bullpen is excellent. The SEA bullpen is lousy.
Edge - BOS big
Offense
These offenses are actually both about league average, and very evenly matched
Edge - BOS slight
Defense
Edge -- SEA
Home / Road Record
SEA is 8-18 on he road v 13-9 at home
BOS is 15-9 at home v 10-12 on tthe road
Edge - BOS
Conclusion: BOS has a huge edge in the bullpen, and they have the slighly better offense. BOS is also a very good home team, while SEA is awfiul on the road. When we get to these two starting pitchers, I don't like Gallardo, I never have and I never will. Rodriguez has been on a roll with six straight quality starts. The Red Sox have all the edges here. I'll take my chances fading Gallardo whenever I can, and I really like how Rodriguez has been pitching.
PICK - BOS 1st 5 RL (-115 for 2 units) and full game RL ( +126 for 1 unit)
TEX @ TOR
A.J. Griffin
Griffin' has made seven starts for TEX. He's 4-1 with three quality starts. He's allowed less hits (35) than innings pitched (37.2), with a nice 33/10 K/BB ratio, which explains the solid 1.19 WHIP. Opponents are hitting .241 against him.
With a below average 4-seam fastball (87--88 mph)and decent slider, curve and changeup, he originally profiled a s fly ball pitcher, his 32.2% ground-ball rate was the lowest in baseball, back in 2013 before his TJ surgery. He was expected to get a decent, but not spectacular, amount of Ks while posting a strong K/BB ratio. So far this season, his 7.88 K/9 is decent, as is his 2.29 BB/9.
Mike Bolsinger
Bolsinger has made 3 starts for the Blue Jays with less than stellar results. He's 0-2 and has yet to produce a quality start. He's allowed 17 hits and 12 rubs (11 earned, in 15.2 innings, with 12 Ks and 11 BBs. That's 28 baserunners in less than 16 innings, which explains the 1.79 WHIP. Opponents are hitting .279 against him.
Bolsinger was acquired last season in a trade with the Dodgers last season, and did not pitch for Toronto. He was assigned to Triple-A Buffalo. He was a godsend for the 2015 Dodgers. He started 21 games (109.1 IP) and posted a 6-6 record, with a 1.36 WHIP and a 3.62 ERA. His advanced metrics, a 4.04 SIERA and a 3.82 xFIP, were also solid.
In 2016, he wasn't the same. He was pushed down the depth chart because of free agent signings and prospects progressing, but the Dodgers still called on him for six starts (27 2/3 IP). Unfortunately, the league figured him out. He finished 1-4 with a 1.52 WHIP and a and a 6.83 ERA. His advanced metrics, a 4.34 SIERA and a 4.46 xFIP, also increaded. He actually had a better K-BB% (13.1%) than he did in 2015 (11.4%), but he also gave up home runs at an alarming (2.78 HR/9 )rate, up from 2.18 HR/9 in 2015. Overall, he also gave up more hits, which isn't surprising for a guy who is basically a two-pitch pitcher without plus stuff or velocity. The Dodgers shipped him to Toronto at the trade deadline for Jesse Chavez, and Bolsinger spent the rest of 2016 in the minor leagues,
Bolsinger is 8-16 with a 1.45 WHIP and a 4.61 ERA in 37 games (36 starts) in his major league career.
Bolsinger has shown nothing so far.
Edge - TEX
Bullpens
The rangers have a lousy pen. The Jays have a good one.
Edge - TOR
Offenses
Both offenses are below average, but the Jays are more so.
Edge TEX
Defense
Edge - TEX
Home Road Records
TEX is 8-16 on the road v 16-8 at home
TOR is 10-11 at home v 11-14 on the rroad.
Conclusion: TEX has the better offense and defense. TOR's only edge is in the bullpen. As for these two starting pitchers, Griffin's not great but he's been mostly solid, and that's a lot more than Bolsinger has shown. Thgis is a straight value play. TOR should not be a -140 favorite here, but they are. We'' eliminate their bullpen edge
Pick - TEX 1st 5 ML (+125 for 1 unit)