For what it's worth, we're almost afraid to say it, but yesterday night turned out to be our second straight very good day. We've gained 10.91 units over the past two days. It seems like we're daring the betting gods t smite us and strike us down. We placed a total of eight wagers yesterday, and cashed seven of them to finish a +5.14 units for the day, and bring our season total up to +33.50 units.
We bet 1 unit on the MINN 1st 5 ML and another unit on the MINN full game ML - The Twins jumped on Tillman for 3 in the 1st and added what turned out to be the game winner in the 2nd. It was 4-1 after 5, and the Twins held on for the 4-3 W. Berrios wasn't quite as sharp as he had been in his 1st two starts, but delivered another QS nonetheless.
We bet 1 unit on the OAK 1st 5 RL - The As jumped on Volqiez for 2 in the 1st, and that was enough for Sonny Gray. It was 3-1 after 5, as Gray threw 7 great innings allowing 3 hits and 1 run with 11 Ks.
We bet 2 units on the NYY st 5 RL, and another unit on the NYY full game RL - NY finally pushed across a run in the 3rd, and that was enough for Severino, as NY led 1-0 after 5. NT got single runs in the 6th and 7th to ice a 3-0 W. Jason Hammel was actually good, throwing a rare QS, but Luis Severino was even better, tossing 8 innings of 4-hit shutout ball, with 7 Ks.
We bet 2 units on the BOS 1st 5 RL and another unit on the BOS full game RL - What the hell do the Red Sox have against Chris Sale. They just don't score for him early. BOS took a brief 1-0 lead in the 3rd, but TEX got the run back in the 4th on a walk, a passed ball and a sac fly, even though they remained hitless through 4. TEX finally got to Sale in the 5th for 3 hits, 2 runs and a 3-1 lead after 5, giving us our only loss of the day. BOS finally gor Perez and into the woeful TEX pen in the 7th, exploding for 7 runs en route to a 9-4 W. What took them so damn long? Well at least we cashed the full game RL wager, and Sale hung around long enough to get the W and another QS.
Finally, we bet 1 unit on the Cubs 1st 5 RL - It was 2-2 after 4, but CHI managed to push across a run in the bottom of the 5th on a sac fly to give us our final W, and put the final exclamation point on a very good day.
On to today's games.
PITT @ ATL
Starting Pitchers
Ivan Nova
Nova has started nine games for the Pirates. He's 4-3, and has delivered eight quality starts. He is averaging just under 7 innings per start, and has allowed 61 hits in 61.2 innings. Nova give up hits, but not runs. Even is one non quality start he only gave up 4 runs. He doesn't strike out many (36, 5.25 K/9), but he hardly walks anyone (4, 0.58 BB/9) either, which is a big reason for his 1.05 WHIP He also doesn't give up many HRs (5, 0.73 HR/9). His advanced metrics are about a run higher than his stellar 2.63 ERA, but they're still under 4.00. That's because he doesn't miss many bats or get a lot of Ks. Opponents are hitting .256 against him.
Last season, Nova made 11 starts for PITT after a being acquired in a midseason trade. He posted a 5-2 record with a 1.10 WHIP and a 3.06 ERA with an absurd 3 walks in 64.2 innings with the Pirates.
Since arriving in PITT, Nova's been on very good. He has had a total of 20 starts and posted an 9-5-4 record, with a 1.08 WHIP and a 2.85 ERA. In his 126.1 innings as a Pirate, Nova has walked exactly 7 batters!
Yes, moving to the NL should benefited Nova since he now faces pitchers instead of DHs, and he's out of the murderous AL East, but this goes far beyond that. He has utilized his 4-seam fastball much less in PITT than in NY, which makes his low walk rate even more impressive. As long as he continues to pound the strike zone consistently (51.4%) without throwing his very hittable 4-seamer very often, he should do very well. He'll never be a high strikeout pitcher, but with a good defense behind him, in a pitcher's park, in the NL, is an ideal scenario for Nova.
Bartolo Colon
"The old fat guy" has started nine games for the Braves, and is 2-4 with just two quality starts. Both came in his first three outings. Since then he's been pretty ineffective, allowing 50 hits in just 32 innings, with 19 Ks and 7 BBs. On the season, he's allowed 60 hits in 48 innings, with 33 Ks and 11 BBs. Opponents are hitting .303 against him this season.
Colon is pretty much everything he has been over the last few years, but less so. He's more hittable, .308 this season v .265 last season, and .260 for his career. He also walks a few more, 2.06 BB/9 this season, up from 1.50 last season. Colon is at the stage in his career where he needs pinpoint command to be effective, and it's simply not as good as it used to be, and as a result he's getting hit hard more often, a career high 36.6% hard contact.
Neither of these guys is likely to beat themselves with walks, but a this stage in their respective careers, Nova's much more sonsistent and flat out better.
Edge - PITT
Bullpens
Both of these bullpens are pretty bad. Tuesday we saw the PITT pen blow a 3-2 lead, and lose the game 6-5. Last night it was the Bravees turn, as their per gave up 7 runs in the 10th inning to lose the game convincingly. The numbers lean PITT, but I can't really give either one an edge.
Edge - NONE
Offenses
The Braves are very mediocre, but PITT is even worse.
Edge - ATL
Defense
Edge - ATL
Home / Road Records
PITT is 9-17 on the road v 12-9 at home
ATL is 10-11 at home v 10-13 on the road
Edge - ATL slight
Conclusion: /neither of these two teams is very good, but they are reasonably close. The bullpens look bad , but pretty even,. ATL has the better offense (mostly by default) and the better defense. ATLT's not very good at home, but PITT's lousy on the road. PITT is really struggling right now, 3-7 in their last 10, while ATL's playing better, 7-3in their last 10. As for the two starting pitchers, Nova's been very good, but Colon's struggling. These are two bad teams, and bad teams are inherently unpredictable, but I'll take my chances with the only consistently good part of this matchup, Ivan Nova.
PICK - PITT 1st 5 ML (-119 for 1 unit)
LAA @ TB
Starting Pitchers
*Past 3 calendar years as a starter
Daniel Wright
Wright has appeared in three games for the Angels, twice out of the pen and one as a starter. On the season, Wright has allowed 14 hits and 8 runs in 13 innings, with 7 Ks and 6 BBs. His one start back on April 23, was solid. He tossed 5 innings v TOR allowing 3 hits and 0 run with 3 Ks and 2 BBs. He threw 80 pitches (43 strikes).
Since going back to Triple-A Salt Lake City, on May 5, Wright has struggled, with a 9.35 ERA in four starts, allowing 24 hits and 18 earned runs in 17,1 innings, Opposing hitters produced a .316 average against him.
Matt Andriese
Andriese has started nine games for the Rays and has produced a 4-1 record with four quality starts. He's average almost 5.2 innings per start, and hasn't allowed more than 3 earned runs in seven of his nine outings. On the season, he's allowed less hits (47) than innings pitched (50.1) with 47 Ks and 19 BBs. Opponents are hitting .242 against him.
One of Andreise's biggest problems is the running game. He is not only slow to the plate, but he also had a problem with balks in the minors while working through his issues throwing to first. He's not as bad as Jon Lester in that regard, but it is definitely a problem and the opposition knows it. Andriese tied with Taijuan Walker for the highest opponents' stolen-base percentage at 94%, and only Gerrit Cole had more steals against him in fewer innings worked. Last season, Ronald Torreyes was the only attempted base-stealer who did not successfully swipe a base when Andriese was on the hill. This season three out of 4 SB attempts against Andriese have been successful.
Last season Andriese made 19 starts and posted an 8-8 record with a 1.22 WHIP and a 4.37 ERA. His advanced metrics, a 3.90 SIERA and a 3.98 xFIP were a little better that his ERA
When not struggling to slow the running game down, Andriese has a slightly better-than-average K rate and is stingy with walks. He does have issues with HRs though. His best pitch his the cut-change. While it isn't Kyle Hendricks quality, it is good enough to confuse both opposing hitters and even his catcher(s).
Andriese's not great but he hasn't been bad either, and he is consistent. As for Wright, his bpdy of work to date isn't very good.
Edge - TB
Bullpens
The numbers give LA a slight edge
Edge - LAA
Offenses
LA is about league average offensively, but TB has a top 10 offense
Edge - TB
Defense
Edge - NONE
Home / Road Records
LA is 10-16 on the road v 15-8 at home
TB is 15-13 at home v 9-12 on the road
Edge - TB
Conclusion: The Angels probably have a small edge in the bullpen, but the Rays have the much better offense, and are a decent home team, while the Angels struggle on the road. When we consider these two starting pitchers, Andriese has to get the edge. While he isn't great,what he has done consistently is keep the Rays in the game, giving his potent offense a chance. I'm not sure Wright's good enough to do even that. His body of work to date says that he can't. The only reason he's getting a starrt is that injuries )(Richard, Skagg, Meyer) have decimated the Angels rotation.
PICK - TB 1st 5 RL (-110 for 1 unit)
SD @ NYM
The Mets pushed deGrom back to tomorrow and will now pitch Rafael Montero tmight. Our wager was pitcher specific, so we voided it and this game i now a PASS.
ARIZ @ MIL
Starting Pitchers
Robbie Ray
Ray has made fnine starts for the Diamondbacks. He's 3-3, with 5 quality starts., and missed a sixth by just 1 out. He's allowed less hits (41) than innings pitched (53), and he's striking out well over a batter an inning (65, 11.04/K(). He has walked 29 (4.92 BB/9) which explains whish his WHIP is high, but opponents are only hitting .215 against him
Last season, Ray fanned 218 batters in 174.1 innings. That is impressive. Ray finished fifth in K% at 28.1%. However, Ray also posted an 8-15 record with a 1.47 WHIP and a 4.90 ERA. Hi advanced metrics, a a 3.59 SIERA and a 3.45 xFIP, tell me that Ray ran into some bad luck, but he pitches in a bad ballpark, has had high BABIPs every single season, and he does not have great command. There is a chance that Ray is in the Michael Pineda mold of tremendously high strikeout rates but bad everything else. Opponents are hitting .309 against him
Zach Davies
Davies has started ninefive games for the Brewers. He's 5-2, but has only delivered one quality start, although he did moiss a 2nd one by just 1 out. He has averaged just over 5 innings per start, and allowed more hits (58) than innings pitched (46.1), and has 19 walks (3.69 BB/9). wich explains the 1.66 WHIP.
Last season, He finished 11-7 last season, with a 1.25 WHIP and a 3.98 ERA. His advanced metrics were all between 3.90 and 4.00. Davies has a great changeup paired with good command and below average fastball velocity.
Davis is very mediocre, and very lucky to be 5-2, Ray has a lot more upside.
Edge - ARIZ
Bullpens.
Edge - ARIZ small
Offense
These are two very potent offenses, and very evenly matched
Edge - NONE
Defenses
Edge - ARIZ
Home / Road Records
ARIZ is 8-11 on the road v 21-8 at home
MIL is 12-13 at home v 13-8 on the road
Edge - None
Conclusion: The two teams are very evenly matched in most regards. ARIZ gets a small edge in the bullpen, and on defense. The offense are to close for there to be an edge. That leaves these two starting pitchers. Ray can be great when he has his command, but shaky when he doesn't. However, the only virtue Davies hasis his consistency. By that I mean he's consistently mediocre. I take my chances with Ray.
PICK - ARIZ 1st 5 ML (-110 for 1 unit ) and full game ML (+103 for 1 unit)
DET @ HTN
Starting Pitchers
Justin Verlander
Last season, Verlander showed his 2015 second half was no fluke and removed doubt about his health. He tossed 227.2 innings during a Cy Young-winning-worthy season in which he posted a 16-9 record, with a 1.00 WHIP and a 3.04 ERA. . His advanced metrics, a 3.42 SIERA amd a 3.78 xFIP, were also very good.
Verlander's velocity spiked with not only his fastball but also with his slider, which jumped to a career-best 88 mph (4th highest in the league). Both pitches were outstanding , and his curveball also returned to its previous plus level giving him three quality pitches. He got back to throwing his high fastball, and moved away from his changeup (career-low 8.5% usage), his weakest pitch.
This season, Verlander has pretty much continued his roll. He's 4-3 , delivering six quality starts in his nine outings, including four of his last five. He's allowed less hits (48) than innings pitched (55.1), while striking almost a batter per inning (54). He has walked 29 ((4.23 BB/() which explains his slightly elevated 1.34 WHIP. However, opposing hitters are just .222 against him.
Mike Fiers
Mike Fiers had a terrible 2016 by a lot of metrics that weren't "No Hitters thrown". He did throw 186.2 innings with an 11-8 record. However, his WHIP rose for the 3rd straight season, from 0.88 in 2014 to 1.25 in 2015 and 1.36 last season. His ERA was up dramatically from from 2,13 in 2014, to to 3.69 in 2015 and 4.48 last season. His IERA rose from 2,94 in 2014 to 3.84 in 2015 and 4.26 last season, as did his xFIP from 3.15 in 2014 to 4.04 in 2015, and 4.12 last season. His once high strikeout rates were also dramatically down form 9.54 in 2014 to to 8.98 in 2015 and 7.15 last season.
Fiers still throws a great curveball, paired with an average fastball, but there are few in baseball that throw a curve that separates quite like Fiers does. He should still be good for close to 160 innings, if he performs well enough to stay in the Astros rotation, but with younger arms that have more potential nipping at his heels, you have to wonder how long Fiers has left before the Astros decide to see what they have in their younger pitchers
Fiers' performance has been declining significantly, and there's no reason to believe that's going to change. He started this season with a quality start at woeful KC, and in his last start threw another one v CLEV, but his other six outing have been less than stellar. He's allowed more hit (44) than innings pitched (42), and a whopping 17 HRs ( 2.64 HR/9). He's also walked 16, hence the 1.43 WHIP. He averaging just over 5 innings per start, and opponent are hiting .263 against him..
Verlander's been most very good, while Fiers has been most not very good.
Edge - DET
Bullpens
HTN has one of the best bullpens, while DET has one of the worst
EDGE - HTN huge
Offenses
These are two potent offense. The numbers give HTN is a little better.
Edge - HTN small
Defense
Edge - DET
Home / Road Records
DET is 10-13 on the road v 12-10 at home
HTN is 16-10 at home v 15-6 on the road
Edge - HTN
Conclusion: HTN has the better bullpen by a wide margin. HTN also has the slightly better offense, but when we get to the starting pitchers, Verlander has a big edge over Fiers. Verlander's still performing at near ace like level, and Fiers like the journeyman he's now become
Pick - DET 1st 5 ML (-107 for 1 unit)
STL @ LAD
Starting Pitchers
Michael Wacha
After some injury issues over the last two seasons, Wacha seems to be fully healthy and pitching well again with six quality starts in his seven outings this season. Wacha has averaged just over 6 innings per start and allowed less hits (37) than innings pitched (42.2), with a 39/12 K/BB ratio. Opponents are hitting .242 against him, and in five of his six quality starts, he allowed 2 or fewer runs. Even in his one non quality starts, he still went 6 innings and only allowed 4 runs.
Wacha looked like a budding ace when he went toe to toe with Clayton Kershaw in the 2013 NLDS. He finished that season 4-1 with a 1.10 WHIP and a and a 2.78 ERA. His advanced metrics by the time the playoffs came around, a 2.36 xFIP and a 3.25 SIERA, were equally outstanding.
Wacha was pitching even better at the beginning of 2014, but then he was diagnosed with a scapular stress injury that limited him to 19 starts (107 IP)and a mediocre 5-6 record. He still posted a 1.00 WHIP and a 3.20 ERA. Again, his advanced metrics, a 3.71 xFIP and a and a 3.74 SIERA, were solid.
Wacha managed to pitch a mostly full season in 2015, 30 starts, 181.1 IP with a solid 1.21 WHIP and a 3.38 ERA, and decent metrics, a 3.88 xFIP and a 4.02 SIERA. However, by the time the playoffs came around, Wacha had nothing left.
Last season. he didn't make it that far. Wacha was adequate in the first half, going 5-7 with a 1.24 WHIP and a 4.36 ERA at the AS break. Some poor luck due to an abnormally low strand rate inflated his ERA. He only made it a month into the 2nd half before he hit the DL with shoulder inflammation. His advanced metrics, a 4.05 xFIP and a 4.31 SIERA, while not great, were miuch better than his miserable 5.09 ERA. Wacha's velocity, K%, BB% and GB% were nearly in line with his career averages.
With Wacha, there are two big questions. First, he can get his changeup back to its 2013-14 status when it was one of the better offspeed pitches in the game, playing off a mid-90s fastball from an unusually high arm slot. Wacha's changeup has been a below-average pitch over the last two seasons and left him without an above-average non-fastball last season. However, this season, so far the pitch has been charting above average. The second big question is whether he can maintain health. He's only 25 so there's a decent chance that he can, and so far he has.
Last season, he got back to a vertical release point like he had in 2014, and that gives him rise on his 4-seamer. He also fell in love with his cutter, and his cutter produced HRs twice as often as any of his other pitch (0% on his curve, 0.3% on his four- eamer, 0.8% on change and 1,8% of his cutter. It also had his worst whiff rate, but it did have a 60% GB rate. Wacha was already making changes. By the end of the season, his cutter was down in usage and his four-seamam change up was up. Based on his first four starts, whatever he's doing is working.
Kenta Maeda
Maeda has made seven starts for the Dodger, but has been out with a hamstring injury for about 2 weeks. He's 3-2 with two quality starts (his last two outings). Maea has allowed less hits t(37) han innings pitched (39.1), and has fanned more than a batter per inning (40,9.15 K/9), while walking 9 (2.06 BB/9). Opponents are hitting .250 against him.
Some believe that Maeda could match Masahiro Tanaka’s success in MLB. Like many other Japanese pitchers, Maeda has an increased injury risk as a result of the differint pitching philosophy of the NPB. To date, he hasn’t displayed any red flags with the Dodgers, so it isn’t an immediate problem. Maeda has great command, That's his greatest strength. He walked only 7% of the batters he faced last seson. He also generated a 25% K rate, 14th best in MLB. He also produce a 12% swinging strike rate—tied for 12th best! Most amazing of all, Maeda had the 2md lowest average exit velocity of all qualified pitchers with 85.7 mph, 3.1 mph below average. Those are the stats of an overpowering ace. His ERA jumped from 3.28 to 3.48 during his final start, but otherwise he would have finished in the top 20 in that category as well. On the minus side ,his sinker, a pitch he has relied on for ground balls, is only average and could be taken advantage of. There is also the possibility that major league batters will make the proper adjustments.
A Hamstring injury is a tricky think and Wacha' been very good
Edge - STL
Bullpens
Edge - LAD
Offenses
Edge - LAD
Defense
Edge - LAD
Home / Road Record
STL is 11-7 on the road v 12-13 at home
LA is 17-8 at home v 10-12 on the road
Edge - LAD
Conclusion: LA has almost every edge in this game, the better bullpen, the better offense and the better offense. The only edge they don't have is at starting pitcher. Wacha's been very good, better than Maeda, and Maeda's coming off a hamstring injury and hasn't pitched in over 2 weeks. For 5 innings, I take a shot on Wacha.
Pick - STL 1st 5 ML (+125 for half a unit)